Dr. Rachel Feeney/Deirdre Boelke Council Staff Herring AP/Cte meetings August 16-17, 2016 1
Amendment 8 goals 1. To account for the role of Atlantic herring within the ecosystem, including its role as forage; 2. To stabilize the fishery at a level designed to achieve optimum yield; 3. To address localized depletion in inshore waters. A8 objective 1. Develop and implement an Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC) control rule that manages Atlantic herring within an ecosystem context and addresses the goals of Amendment 8. 2
Amendment 8 timeline ABC control rule Localized depletion Council approved developing Cte tasked PDT with Jan. measures via MSE background analyses Apr - Cte/Council approved problem MSE workshop #1 May statement AP/Cte/Council review and June PDT tasking cont. 2016 approve outcomes July - AP/Cte review PDT work, Aug develop measures MSE technical work, updates at Cte/Council mtgs Sep-Oct Develop measures Nov Dec MSE workshop #2 Jan Council approve range of alternatives 2017 TBD MSE peer review; impacts analysis; public hearings; final action TBD 2018 Implementation 3
ABC Control Rule Management Strategy Evaluation 4
Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) • Council is developing alternatives via management strategy evaluation, involving: • Discussion about the objectives/desired outcomes of the control rule. • Technical analysis to test how the control rules may/may not achieve objectives. prior to approving the Range of Alternatives. • In June, Council approved the objectives, metrics and control rules to be evaluated (input from workshop/PDT/AP/Cte). 5
MSE next steps • June MSE technical work underway • Mid-Nov. MSE technical work complete • Early Dec. MSE workshop #2 • Review outcomes • Recommend MSE iteration • Recommend alternatives • Mid-Dec. Potential MSE iteration • Herring PDT mtg • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives • Early Jan. Herring AP/Cte mtgs • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives • Jan 24-26 Council mtg – approve alternatives range 6
What to expect • Many variants of biomassed based and constant catch control rules were recommended and will be evaluated using eight herring operating models. • Will evaluate assumptions about uncertainties (recruitment, natural mortality, growth, etc.). • Outputs will be evaluated with predator models that are being developed (marine mammals, birds, groundfish, tuna). • Communicating the results will be challenging. 7
Localized Depletion 8
Localized depletion - definition From Scoping document: “ ...when harvesting takes more fish than can be replaced either locally or through fish migrating into the catch area within a given time period. ” 9
January PDT tasking 1. Forage needs • 852K mt eaten by predators, 2009- 2013 annual average • Need not estimated 2. Footprint of the Atlantic herring and predator fisheries • Provided heat maps by month, gear • Herring catch off back side of Cape • Commercial striped bass fishery in MA • Limited tuna and whale data 10
January PDT tasking 3. Relationships between catches of herring and predators • Preliminary statistical work (stat area, week) found few relationships 4. Potential midwater trawl closures • PDT didn ’ t have time to explore 5. Cod and herring in Ipswich Bay • Data limitations 6. Analytical ideas from public scoping • Some answered, research needed 11
Localized depletion – problem statement April 2016 Council motion (17/0/0): “ Scoping comments for Amendment 8 identified concerns with concentrated, intense commercial fishing of Atlantic herring in specific areas and at certain times that may cause detrimental socioeconomic impacts on other user groups (commercial, recreational, ecotourism) who depend upon adequate local availability of Atlantic herring to support business and recreational interests both at sea and on shore. The Council intends to further explore these concerns through examination of the best available science on localized depletion, the spatial nature of the fisheries, reported conflicts amongst users of the resources and the concerns of the herring fishery and other stakeholders . ” 12
March PDT tasking 1. Overlay “ heat maps ” of herring effort with management boundaries. 2. Describe herring catch from the specific 30 min squares (around Cape), by season/month, 2000-. 3. Determine where/when herring fishing intensifies within 6 & 12 nm of shore; analyze midwater trawl trips (catch, tow duration). 4. Determine if the Study Fleet habitat suitability model could help understand localized depletion. 5. Compare private rental/charter striped bass catch per trip on “ back side of Cape ” (0-3 mi from shore) to herring catches. 6. Describe tuna fishery CPUE over time. 13
TASK 1 - Map herring fishery TASK: “ Make zoomed in heat maps of herring effort overlaid with all current and proposed spatial regulations to better identify the importance of areas to the fishery and potential impacts of measures developed through Amendment 8, such as: • groundfish closed areas (with 15 mi move along), • distances 12, 30, 50 mi from shore, • stat areas, 30-min squares, • herring management areas, • bathymetry (100 fathom or 200 m depth), • ASMFC spatial regulations (spawning closed areas), • RH/S bycatch cap areas, and haddock AM areas. ” 14
TASK 1 - Map herring fishery • Interactive map developed in collaboration with the GARFO GIS office. • Fishery locations mapped with the VTR-observed model. • Given numerous regulations, fishing locations should not be confused as measures of abundance. • Maps still under development • Herring catch by month uploaded soon • Explanations of regulations. • Provide feedback! http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html? id=5d3a684fe2844eedb6beacf1169ca854 15
TASK 1 - Map herring fishery 16
TASK 2 – Specific 30-min squares TASK: “ Identify herring catch from the following 30- minute squares, by season or month back to 2000: 99, 100, 114, 115, and 123. Calculate the percent of the total Atlantic herring stock area that these 30-minute squares comprise. ” Note: Model estimates landings, not catch 17
TASK 2 – Specific 30-min squares 18
TASK 2 – Specific 30-min squares Herring landings 2000 - 2009 19
TASK 2 – Specific 30-min squares Herring landings 2010 - 2015 20
TASK 2 – Specific 30-min squares Square 114-only, 2000 - 2015 2000-2009 2010-2015 Month Kept (mt) Share Kept (mt) Share 1 3,959 5.63% 13,089 22.65% 2 1,999 3.68% 3,510 13.34% 3 469 1.74% 1,072 5.80% 4 877 4.50% 1,168 18.53% 5 2,956 5.19% 6,331 31.20% 6 0 0.00% 125 0.28% 7 18 0.01% 530 0.75% 8 31 0.02% 2,913 3.83% 9 629 0.50% 4,606 6.94% 10 4,024 3.33% 62 0.10% 11 13,573 16.57% C C 12 20,564 39.74% 1,702 5.85% 21 c = confidential
TASK 2 – Specific 30-min squares These 30-minute squares comprise <0.5% of the total Atlantic herring stock area. Within each herring management area, these squares comprise <2% of the stock area they reside within, with the exception of the squares within Area 1B. Discussion • Square 114 is currently split by Areas 1B and Area 3. The January-April Area 1B closure became effective in 2014. Thus, these data would not necessarily be representative of future time series, given this closure. • Herring sub-ACL distribution has shifted over time. • Area boundaries shifted in 2007. • Size of a square irrelevant to the impacts of potentially closing it, since fish and fishing not evenly distributed. • Be cautious of unintended consequences of area closures. 22
TASK 3 – Herring effort inshore TASK: “ Within both 6 and 12 miles from shore, examine herring effort, including the amount of catch. Identify areas (e.g., Ipswich Bay, Nantucket Shoals) where herring fishing seasonally intensifies. a. Determine and compare midwater trawl trip catches over time in each area, considering variation in tow-specific catches (accounting for tow time, number of tows, and trip duration). b. Determine if, over the time of intensified fishing, catches could only be maintained by longer tows, more tows and/or longer trips, thereby indicating local depletion (e.g., F much higher than F set for entire stock). ” 23
TASK 3 – Herring effort inshore • For schooling, pelagic fish, CPUE should not be used to indicate fishery impacts on abundance, particularly in discrete geographic areas. • A decline in CPUE does not necessarily mean localized depletion. • T ow time should not be used to estimate the density of a herring school • There have been an insufficient number of midwater trawl tows in discrete areas (e.g., Ipswich Bay 6 or 12-miles from shore) to make scientifically robust conclusions regarding CPUE. 24
TASK 3 – Herring effort inshore Landings by all gear types, 2010 - 2014 Within 6 nm Within 12 nm Month Kept (mt) Share Kept (mt) Share 1 27,775 56.33% 38,307 77.69% 2 7,190 30.69% 10,908 46.56% 3 1,065 7.54% 2,140 15.14% 4 732 13.37% 1,296 23.67% 5 2,007 13.17% 3,756 24.66% 6 1,755 5.17% 4,782 14.09% 7 3,208 5.42% 9,496 16.05% 8 8,368 12.83% 22,586 34.63% 9 5,407 9.21% 17,183 29.25% 10 11,475 22.99% 31,035 62.17% 11 2,845 23.42% 6,126 50.42% 12 18,315 70.46% 22,276 85.70% TOTAL 90,142 21.84% 169,891 41.17% 25 Share >20% highlighted
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