Di Digital gital Sc Scena enarios rios and and Futu Future Sk re Skill ills s TechConnect March 13, 2018 Jim Phelps Director Enterprise Architecture & Strategy, UW-IT Chair, Itana EDUCAUSE Digital Transformation Task Force member
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation ion Dig igital tra ransformation is the change associated with the application of dig igital technologies to all aspects of human society.
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation ion Hyper-Personalization
Agenda Agenda Part 1: Why should you care? Part 2: Two tools to help you plan a. Scenario Planning - table work b. Personal Job Pathways - table work Part 3: Hands On / Share Out Part 4: Questions & Feedback
Part 1: Wh Part 1: Why should y y should you car ou care? e? Predictions The Shape of Transformations Disruption is coming Above the line competencies are critical
Predict Predictions ions
Predicti Prediction 1: World on 1: World Econo Economic mic Forum Forum and Bos and Boston ton Cons Consulti ulting ng “Almost 1 million Americans will see their occupations vanish entirely by 2026” “Without new skills...41% will have minuscule or no chance of finding other work” Axios: A grim future for workers who don't learn new skills https://www.axios.com/workers-automation-lost-jobs-skills-2d944533-3f51-40ee-b2c0-b65e4644a9db.html
Scott Lever - Gartner Analyst “Nearly 80% of CIO’s and IT leaders project that the skill and knowledge their organization will need in 10 years have little resemblance to the skills and knowledge they have today.”
Predicti Prediction 2: Clay on 2: Clayton ton Chr Christ istensen ensen (Harvar (Harvard d Bus Business iness Schoo School) l)
Phases of Transformat Phases of Transformations ions Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Refine Disrupt Transform
Phase 1 Phase 1 - Refine and Re Refine and Re-creat create e (10 (10-15 year 15 years) s) > The core technology > The infrastructure > Refitting old to the new technology 1870 1885 1900 Refine Disrupt Transform
Phase 1: Refine and re Phase 1: Refine and re-cr creat eate Electric trolley Electric light Electric Iron
Phase 2: Dis Phase 2: Disrupt rupt > Natives are joining the workforce > Outsourcing capabilities are available > New things that require the new technology 1870 1885 1900 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Phas Phase 2: e 2: Dis isru rupt pt/Inv /Invent ent new new th things ings Washingmachine Refrigerator Radio
Phase 3 Phase 3 - Transformat Transformation ion > Changes in how society functions > Major paradigms completely shift > Society reshapes itself into the “new normal” 1870 1885 1900 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Washing Machines + Refrigeration = Women’s Vote Ted talk - Hans Rosling: The Magic Washing Machine
Washing Machines + Refrigeration = Women’s Vote > Women have time. > Women join the workforce > Women get the right to vote (1920)
Founded May 1935
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation ion YOU ARE HERE Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Refine Disrupt Transform
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation ion Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Refine Disrupt Transform
Topic Introduction: 35 Years in 6 Seconds By the Harvard Innovation Lab
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation ion Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Refine Disrupt Transform
The Verge, May 10, 2017
First reported in Nature Partner Journal - Schizophrenia www.nature.com/npjschz
Cardiogram and UCSF previously demonstrated the ability for the Apple Watch to detect abnormal heart rhythm with a 97 percent accuracy. This new study shows the Watch can detect sleep apnea with a 90 percent accuracy and hypertension with an 82 percent accuracy. Techcrunch, Nov 13, 2017
A shift from reactionary / diagnostic medicine To proactive / predictive medicine.
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation ion YOU ARE HERE Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Refine Disrupt Transform
Truck Driver NPR’s Planet Money, Feb 5, 2015
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation ion YOU ARE HERE Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Refine Disrupt Transform
We don’t know the full societal impacts or all the disruptive inventions. IT workers need to be Highly Resilient and Adaptable .
Problem Solving Adaptability Critical Thinking Learning Mindset How Collaboration Conflict Resolution Employees Influence Do Communication Relationship Building Engagement What Hard Skills Accomplishments Employees Do Quality of Work Prioritization Timeliness
Part 1: Y Part 1: You should c ou should care! are! Predictions The Shape of Transformations Disruption is coming Above the line competencies are critical
Part 2: Part 2: Scenar Scenarios an ios and Job Pat d Job Pathway hways Two tools to help you think about your future
Scenar Scenario Planning io Planning Scenarios are possible future states given a set of conditions (drivers, current state, etc.)
The Art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz 1996
Futur Future e Scena Scenarios rios Drives the Inhibits the future state future state What responds / What are the critical adapts to the uncertainties future state
Futur Future e Scena Scenarios rios What needs to respond or adapt to Work on making meet most of the these adaptable scenarios
Example S Example Scenarios cenarios for Homeowner for Homeowners
Example S Example Scenarios cenarios for Homeowner for Homeowners Scenario Response Roof leak Insurance - Water damage Savings - New roof Plumbing failure Insurance - Water damage Savings - New plumbing Appliance failure Insurance - New appliance Savings - Possible fire Fire Safe, Smoke Alarms Furnace failure Savings - New furnace CO Alarms - CO leak
Example S Example Scenarios cenarios for Homeowner for Homeowners Scenario Response Roof leak Insurance - Water damage Savings - New roof Plumbing failure Insurance - Water damage Savings - New plumbing Appliance failure Insurance - New appliance Savings - Possible fire Fire Safe, Smoke Alarms Furnace failure Savings - New furnace CO Alarms - CO leak
Digit Digital al Transformat Transformation Dr ion Driver ivers Hyper-Personalization
Scena Scenario rio 1: Futur 1: Future e of of Ide Identit ntity y and Access and Access Management Management Identity and Access Management Hyper-Personalization
IAM = What IAM = What user users s expect now expect now “I’ve had people use the word “ magic ” when describing how they think their authentication/authorization flow should work.” “The service should just know who they are and what they want to access. ….it just works .” “… seamless to the users because the systems know what sort of actions should be flagged and the level of risk for each service and scales the identity requirements appropriately.” CSG Meeting Winter 2018 - Next Generation Identity, Karen Herrington
Insert Insert example scenarios example scenarios here! here! Scenario 1: AI/Machine Learning drive behaviour based Authentication/Authorization. Scenario 2: Personalization allows users to highly customize their own Authentication/Authorization experience to their own lifestyle.
Insert Insert example scenarios example scenarios here! here! Scenarios Skill Responses Scenario 1: AI/Machine Learning drive AI/Machine Learning Programmer behaviour based Authentication/Authorization. Statistician Solution Architect Customer Experience Designer Scenario 2: Personalization allows users to Customer Experience Designer highly customize their own UI/UX designer Authentication/Authorization experience. Solution Architect Customer Experience Designer Solution Architect
Tool 1: Scena Tool 1: Scenario Plannin rio Planning Future state scenarios and what needs to adapt and/or change for your team or yourself regarding jobs and skills.
Tool 1: S Tool 1: Scenario Planning cenario Planning Solo / Group Work Scenario Planning (quick and dirty): 1. Capture 1 to 3 scenarios for your area of work. 2. Look for common skills or responses in those scenarios.
Job Pat Job Pathway hways Job Pathways are maps of career steps towards a future role, duties, job or career.
Job Pathway Job Pathway Future Job 1 Future Job 4 New skills needed ... Benefit Future Job 2 Current Job ... Future Job 3 ...
World Economic Forum Towards a Reskilling Revolution A Future of Jobs for All (Jan 2018) http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Reskilling_Revolution.pdf
Example Example Scenar Scenario io - Job Pat Job Pathway hway Digital Technologies and Identity and Access Management
Scena Scenario rio 1: Futur 1: Future e of of Ide Identit ntity y and Access and Access Management Management Hyper-Personalization
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