Development of “ Dozen of Actions ” 15 Feb 2009 AIM Workshop Tsukuba Tomoki Ehara & Yuko Iwabuchi
Overall LCS study & scope of “ Dozen of actions ” a) Target Setting (70% reduction of GHG in 2050 etc) b) Development of visions and storyline Development of c) Quantifying the visions Low Carbon Vision d) Evaluation and analysis of vision e) Development of dozen of action Development of f) Quantifying the actions Low Carbon Actions g) Evaluation and analysis of actions
1. Background and Objective 3
Background • Two “ 70% reduction scenarios ” were developed • Two “ 70% reduction scenarios ” were developed • Two “ 70% reduction scenarios ” were developed • Both are confirmed to be “ technically possible ” • Both are confirmed to be “ technically possible ” • Both are confirmed to be “ technically possible ” • Then the question would be “ how to get there ? ” • Then the question would be “ how to get there ? ” • Then the question would be “ how to get there ? ” Low carbon society is possible, but how? 4 Ref:
Objective 1. In order to achieve the goals of “ Low Carbon Society ” , drastic changes 1. 1. In order to achieve the goals of “ Low Carbon Society ” , drastic changes In order to achieve the goals of “ Low Carbon Society ” , drastic changes (Innovations) in social systems, technologies, and lifestyle are needed. (Innovations) in social systems, technologies, and lifestyle are needed. (Innovations) in social systems, technologies, and life f style are needed. 2. Sharing the low carbon strategies among the stakeholders is essential to 2. 2. Sharing the low carbon strategies among the stakeholders is essential to Sharing the low carbon strategies among the stakeholders is essential to realize this innovation within a limited period. realize this innovation within a limited period. realize this innovation within a limited period. 3. The objective of the development of “ Action ” is to propose practical low 3. 3. The obj The objective of the development of “ Action ” is to propose practical low b ective of the development of “ Action ” is to propose practical low carbon strategies as an example in order to enhance discussion among carbon strategies as an example in order to enhance discussion among carbon strategies as an example in order to enhance discussion among stakeholders, and to formulate robust low carbon strategies. stakeholders, and to fo stakeholders, and to formulate robust low carbon strategies. f rmulate robust low carbon strategies. 4. Therefore, “ Action ” development should be based on various processes 4. 4. Therefore, “ Action ” development should be based on various processes Therefore, “ Action ” development should be based on various processes such as expert interview and survey of literature. such as expert interv such as expert interview and survey of literature. r iew and surv r ey of literature. 5 Ref:
Definition of terms Terms Definition Innovation Drastic changes in social factors in order to achieve the LCS. Any changes in factors such as social systems, technological development, and lifestyles are included if it is not an extension of current trends and needs drastic trend-breaks. Policy General terms for actions aiming to overcome specific political issues. Action Actions are defined as packages of options. The actions should be designed to be triggers and engines for innovations towards LCS, while keeping certain degrees of independency with other actions. Information of actions as an overall package such as specific target, features, time schedules, management framework, and feasibilities, should be assessed and identified. Option Individual activities that can contribute to achieving LCS. Can be divided into direct options and indirect options. Direct options are options that can directly change the driving forces of CO2 emissions. Indirect options, on the other hand, are options that can influence the effects of direct options and can contribute to LCS development indirectly. 6 Ref:
FAQ • Who ’ s Action is described in Dozen of Actions? : Government • Who ’ s Action is described in Dozen of Actions? : Gove • Who ’ s Action is described in Dozen of Actions? : Government v rn r ment • Actions of private companies or individuals are not important? : Clearly • Actions of private companies or individuals are not important? : Clearly • Actions of private companies or individuals are not import r ant? : Clearl r y l these are very important. However, we cannot rely only on private companies t ese are th these are very important. However, we cannot rely only on private companies r v ry ve r im i port r ant. Howe w ve v r, r we w cannot re r ly l only l on pri r va v te t companie i s or individuals, and government should take leadership role to pursue robust or individuals, and government should take leadership role to pursue robust or in i di d vi v duals, and gove v rn r ment should take k leaders r hip i r le to purs ro r ue ro r bust low carbon strategies. Efforts of private companies or individuals are low carb low carbon strategies. Efforts of private companies or individuals are r on str t a r tegies. Ef E f f o f rt r s of pri r va v te t companie i s or in i di d vi v duals are r expected to accelerate governments ’ Actions. expected to accelerate governments ’ Actions. exp x ected to accelera r te t gove v rn r ments ’ Acti t ons. • Why the options need to be integrated into actions?: The effects of the • Why the options need to be integrated into actions?: The effects of the • Why the options need to be integrated into actions?: Th T e eff f e f cts of th t e options can be substantially enhanced or weakened when they are combined options can be substantially enhanced or weakened when they are combined opti t ons can be substa t nti t all l y l enhanced or we w akened wh w en th t ey are r combin i ed with other options. In order to take into account those factors, the effects of with other options. In order to take into account those factors, the effects of wi w th t oth t er op o ti t o i ns. In ord r er to ta t ke in i to account th t ose fa f cto t rs r , th t e eff f e f cts of integrated options, “ Actions ” would be evaluated. in i tegra r ted opti t ons, “ A “ cti t o i ns ” wo w uld be eva v luated. integrated options, “ Actions ” would be evaluated. • To what extent, should the options be integrated? : This is heavily • To what extent, should the options be integrated? : This is heavily • To what extent, should the options be integrated? : Th T is i is i heavi v l i y l dependent on the objectives of the research. In the case of “ Dozen of dependent on the objectives of the research. In the case of “ Dozen of dependent on th t e obj b ecti t ve v s of th t e re r searc r h. In th t e case of “ D “ ozen of Actions ” , the objective was sharing the strategies among the stakeholders. Acti Actions ” , the objective was sharing the strategies among the stakeholders. t ons ” , th t e obj b e j cti t ve v w s shari wa r n i g th t e str t a r tegies among th t e stakeholders r . Therefore, the number of the Actions were restricted to twelve. Th T ere Therefore, the number of the Actions were restricted to twelve. r fo f re r , th t e number of th t e Acti t ons we w re r re r str t i r c i ted to twe w lve v . 7 Ref:
2. Development of “ Actions ” 8
General Flow of the Action development Step0: LCS Snapshot development (ESS & Storylines) Step1: Developing Preliminary Framework of Actions Step2: Narrative description of “ Future Objectives ” by Actions Step3-1: Constraint analysis Step3-2:Stakeholder analysis Step4: Compatibility and conflict evaluation A Dozen of Actions 9 Ref:
Developing Preliminary Framework of Actions • Low carbon strategies should be broken down into certain levels of “ Actions ” • Low carbon strategies should be broken down into certain levels of “ Actions ” • Low carbon strategies should be broken down into certain levels of “ Actions ” • The favorable framework of “ Actions ” is as follows: • The favorable framework of “ Actions ” is as follows: • The favorable framework of “ Actions ” is as fo f llows: � Whole innovations identified in ESS and Storyline are covered � Whole innovations identified in ESS and Storyline are covered � Whole innovations identified in ESS and Storyline are covered � A set of options in the Actions are highly compatible � A set of options in the Actions are highly compatible � A set of options in the Actions are highly compatible � Actions should be independent of each other as much as possible, � Actions should be independent of each other as much as possible, � Actions should be independent of each other as much as possible, although no single actions can be perfectly independent. although no single actions can be perf although no single actions can be perfectly independent. r ectly independent. • Actions can be formed by stakeholders as well as by sectors • Actions can be formed by stakeholders as well as by sectors • Actions can be formed by stakeholders as well as by sectors Strategies for LCS Strategies for LCS Action Action Action Action Action Action Action ・・・ Action ・・・ 10 Ref:
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