Desired Future Conditions Board Meeting - March 11, 2014 Steve Walthour, General Manager
DFC Considerations • Aquifer uses or conditions within the management area, • Water supply needs and water management strategies included in the state water plan, • Hydrological conditions, including the total estimated recoverable storage and the average annual recharge, inflows, and discharge; • Environmental impacts, including impacts on spring flow
DFC Considerations (Continued) • Impact on subsidence; • Socioeconomic impacts reasonably expected to occur; • The impact on the interests and rights in private property. • The feasibility of achieving the desired future condition;
Ogallala Aquifer TWDB GAM Task 13-025 (August 2013) • Origin – Alluvial Fan (Braided Streams) • Type - Unconfined (Water Table) • GMA-1 Total Storage 259,100,000 Acre-Feet • District Total Storage 150,000,000 Acre-Feet • 75% Estimated Recoverable Storage
GMA-1 Ogallala and Rita Blanca Aquifer DFC Area 1 - 40 percent volume in storage remaining in 50 years in Dallam, Sherman, Hartley, and Moore Counties. Area 2 - 80 percent volume in storage remaining in 50 years in Hemphill County. Area 3 - 50 percent volume in storage remaining in 50 years in Hansford, Ochiltree, Lipscomb, Hutchinson, Roberts, Oldham, Potter, Carson, Gray, Wheeler, Randall, Armstrong, and Donley Counties; and
Definitions • Total Storage - The volume of groundwater that could possibly be removed by pumping that completely drains the aquifer. (includes varying water quality.) • Total Recoverable Storage - TWDB assumes that between 25 and 75 percent of groundwater held within an aquifer can be effectively removed by pumping.
District Ogallala Aquifer DFC Total Storage by Desired Future 2060 Total County County Condition Storage (Acre-Feet) (Percent of Storage) (Acre-Feet) 22,000,000 8,800,000 40% Dallam 22,000,000 50% 11,000,000 Hansford 27,000,000 10,800,000 40% Hartley 5,500,000 50% 2,750,000 Hutchinson* 21,000,000 10,500,000 50% Lipscomb 11,500,000 4,600,000 40% Moore* 21,000,000 50% 10,500,000 Ochiltree 20,000,000 8,000,000 40% Sherman 150,000,000 66,950,000 Total * Estimate based on the extent of Ogallala aquifer in the District – Walthour 2014(derived from TWDB GAM Task 13-025)
District Ogallala Aquifer DFC by Management Zone Area 1 40%-50 Years Area 3 50%-50 Years Total Storage 2060 Total Total Storage by 2060 Total County County Storage County by County Storage (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) Dallam 22,000,000 8,800,000 Hansford 22,000,000 11,000,000 Hartley 27,000,000 10,800,000 Hutchinson* 5,500,000 2,750,000 Moore* 11,500,000 4,600,000 Lipscomb 21,000,000 10,500,000 Sherman 20,000,000 8,000,000 Ochiltree 21,000,000 10,500,000 Total 69,500,000 34,750,000 Total 80,500,000 32,200,000 * Estimate based on the extent of Ogallala aquifer in the District – Walthour 2014(derived from TWDB GAM Task 13-025)
District Ogallala Aquifer DFC Compared to 75% Recoverable Storage Estimated Total 2060 Non- 2060 2060 2060 Aquifer Recoverable Recoverable Storage by recoverable Recoverable County Storage Storage Storage County Storage Storage (Acre-Feet) Percent (Acre-Feet ) (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) Dallam 22,000,000 16,500,000 5,500,000 8,800,000 3,300,000 15% Hansford 22,000,000 16,500,000 5,500,000 11,000,000 5,500,000 25% Hartley 27,000,000 20,250,000 6,750,000 10,800,000 4,050,000 15% Hutchinson 5,500,000 4,125,000 1,375,000 2,750,000 1,375,000 25% Lipscomb 21,000,000 15,750,000 5,250,000 10,500,000 5,250,000 25% 11,500,000 8,625,000 2,875,000 Moore 4,600,000 1,725,000 15% Ochiltree 21,000,000 15,750,000 5,250,000 10,500,000 5,250,000 25% Sherman 20,000,000 15,000,000 5,000,000 8,000,000 3,000,000 15% Total 150,000,000 112,500,000 66,950,000 37,500,000 29,450,000 20%
District Ogallala Aquifer DFC Compared to 85% Recoverable Storage(Optimistic) Estimated Total 2060 Non- 2060 2060 2060 Aquifer Recoverable Storage by recoverable Recoverable Recoverable County Storage Storage Storage County Storage Storage (Acre-Feet) Percent (Acre-Feet ) (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) 18,700,000 Dallam 22,000,000 3,300,000 8,800,000 5,500,000 25% 22,000,000 18,700,000 3,300,000 Hansford 11,000,000 7,700,000 35% Hartley 27,000,000 22,950,000 4,050,000 10,800,000 6,750,000 25% 4,675,000 Hutchinson 5,500,000 825,000 2,750,000 1,925,000 35% Lipscomb 21,000,000 17,850,000 3,150,000 10,500,000 7,350,000 35% 9,775,000 Moore 11,500,000 1,725,000 4,600,000 2,875,000 25% 21,000,000 17,850,000 3,150,000 Ochiltree 10,500,000 7,350,000 35% Sherman 20,000,000 17,000,000 3,000,000 8,000,000 5,000,000 25% Total 150,000,000 127,500,000 66,950,000 22,500,000 44,450,000 30%
Ogallala Modeled Available Groundwater (MAG) Acre-feet Year County 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Dallam 404,607 352,474 309,076 270,317 234,813 203,491 Hansford 284,588 262,271 240,502 218,405 197,454 177,536 Hartley 424,813 368,430 319,149 276,075 238,186 205,137 Hutchinson 61,306 58,383 50,723 44,360 39,048 34,580 Lipscomb 290,510 283,794 273,836 256,406 237,765 219,100 Moore 193,001 186,154 162,142 137,321 114,658 95,490 Ochiltree 269,463 246,475 224,578 203,704 183,227 164,265 Sherman 322,683 300,908 263,747 229,122 197,480 169,172 Total 2,250,971 2,058,889 1,843,753 1,635,710 1,442,631 1,268,771
Area 1 – Ogallala DFC 40%-50 Years MAG (Acre-Feet) Year County 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Dallam 404,607 352,474 309,076 270,317 234,813 203,491 Hartley 424,813 368,430 319,149 276,075 238,186 205,137 Moore 193,001 186,154 162,142 137,321 114,658 95,490 Sherman 322,683 300,908 263,747 229,122 197,480 169,172 Total 1,345,104 1,207,966 1,054,114 912,835 785,137 673,290
Area 3 – Ogallala DFC 50%-50 Years MAG (Acre-Feet) Year County 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Hansford 284,588 262,271 240,502 218,405 197,454 177,536 Hutchinson 61,306 58,383 50,723 44,360 39,048 34,580 Lipscomb 290,510 283,794 273,836 256,406 237,765 219,100 Ochiltree 269,463 246,475 224,578 203,704 183,227 164,265 Total 905,867 850,923 789,639 722,875 657,494 595,481
GMA-1 Dockum DFC • Average decline will be no more than 30 feet in 50 years.
Dockum Aquifer • Origin – Alluvial Fan (Braided Streams) • Type - confined (Artesian) • GMA-1 Storage 319,000,000 Acre-Feet • District Storage 170,000,000 Acre-Feet • Less than 25% Estimated Recoverable Storage In District. Source: TWDB GAM 10-19 V2
SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM SHOWING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN UNCONFINED AND CONFINED AQUIFERS. (Ogallala Aquifer) (Dockum Aquifer) Source: Modified from TWDB GAM Task 13-025
Dockum Aquifer Estimated Recoverable Storage 25 percent of County Total Storage Total Storage Dallam 81,000,000 20,250,000 Hartley 93,000,000 23,250,000 Moore 11,000,000 2,750,000 Sherman 1,200,000 300,000 Total 186,200,000 46,550,000 North Plains 170,000,000 42,500,000 GCD Total Derived from TWDB GAM Task 13-025
Dockum Observations • Dockum Total Storage = 170,000,000 acre-feet • Ogallala Total Storage = 150,000,000 acre-feet • Question: Why can’t we pump more Dockum? • Answer: we could if we had unlimited resources to produce water and we didn’t mind the water quality. – Most stored and recoverable groundwater is in very low productive strata. – Aquifer water pressure drives productivity. Water Pressure is effected by: • The ability to move water into place from elsewhere (water like a water hose) • The weight overlying strata (Ogallala) • Recharge • Pumping
Dockum Modeled Available Groundwater (MAG) Acre-feet Year County 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Dallam 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 Hartley 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,567 Moore 5,395 5,395 5,395 5,395 5,395 5,395 Sherman 591 591 591 591 591 591 Total 13,587 13,587 13,587 13,587 13,587 13,587
North Plains GCD Production Trend Ogallala and Dockum Aquifers Year Average Annual County Production 2010 2011 2012 (Acre-Feet) Dallam 302,561 374,733 371,965 349,753 Hansford 129,984 234,903 218,793 194,560 Hartley 401,506 519,684 458,696 459,962 Hutchinson 42,023 73,747 72,230 62,667 Lipscomb 33,826 52,003 55,572 47,134 Moore 178,336 271,684 234,688 228,236 Ochiltree 62,269 114,392 109,213 95,291 Sherman 261,608 407,265 348,012 338,962 Total 1,412,113 2,048,411 1,869,169 1,776,564
District Annual Production 2010-2012 Compared to Ogallala MAG+ Dockum MAG Average Annual Annual Average MAG Percent County Production MAG Average DFC Reserve Above or 2010-2012 2010-2012 Deposit/ Below (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) Withdrawal Production Dallam 349,753 403,428 53,675 13% Hansford 194,560 282,356 87,796 31% Hartley 459,962 422,742 -37,220 -9% Hutchinson 62,667 61,014 -1,653 -3% Lipscomb 47,134 289,838 242,705 84% Moore 228,236 197,711 -30,525 -15% Ochiltree 95,291 267,164 171,873 64% Sherman 338,962 321,097 -17,865 -6% Total 1,776,564 2,231,763 455,198 20%
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