Demographics g p of the Housing R Recovery in LA i LA Crocker Symposium y p October 29, 2013 Taylor Mammen, Principal / Director of Consulting
PERMIT GROWTH Annual Residential Permits (Los Angeles MSA) 40 000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Crocker Symposium | OCTOBER 29, 2013 2
Crocker Symposium | OCTOBER 29, 2013 100 150 150 200 250 300 300 S&P/Case- Shiller CA Los Angeles Home Price Index (through July 2013) 50 0 Jan-1990 Sep-1990 May-1991 Jan-1992 Sep-1992 May-1993 PRICING PERFORMANCE Jan-1994 Sep-1994 May-1995 Jan-1996 Sep-1996 May-1997 Jan-1998 Sep-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sep-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sep-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sep-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sep-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sep-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sep-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sep-2012 May-2013 3
POPULATION GROWTH HAS TWO HUMPS Projected Total Population Growth Rate by Age Southern California, 2010 – 2020 Southern California, 2010 2020 Single/Roommate Rental Apartments Entry-Level and First Move-Up Condos Move-Down Product Lifestyle Product Lifestyle Product Age-Targeted/Restricted Product Senior Living Source: California Department of Finance; RCLCO Source: California Department of Finance; RCLCO Crocker Symposium | OCTOBER 29, 2013 4
GENERATION Y’S IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT Housing Type Preference by Age (U.S.) Percent Answering Yes to the Following: “I don't own a car And I don't need one I don t own a car. And, I don t need one, 90% 90% because I use public transit and get around 80% the neighborhood by bicycle and/or walking.” 70% 40% 40% 60% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Single-family Single-family Apartment or detached attached condominium house house house or house or townhouse 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ Total Source: RCLCO Consumer Research Source: RCLCO Consumer Research Crocker Symposium | OCTOBER 29, 2013 5
“MAJORITY MINORITY” Percentage of Population by Ethnicity (Los Angeles County) 100% 100% Multi-Race, not Hispanic or 90% Latino 80% Hispanic or Latino Hispanic or Latino 70% Native Hawaiian and other 60% Pacific Islander not Hispanic Pacific Islander, not Hispanic 50% or Latino Asian, not Hispanic or Latino 40% 30% American Indian, not Hispanic or Latino 20% 10% 10% Black, not Hispanic or Latino Bl k t Hi i L ti 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: California Department of Finance Source: California Department of Finance Crocker Symposium | OCTOBER 29, 2013 6
INCOME INEQUALITY Percentage of Households by Income Difference in Percentage, LA vs. U.S. 30.0% 1.5% 25.0% 1.0% 20 0% 20.0% 0.5% 0 5% 15.0% 0.0% 10.0% -0.5% 5.0% -1.0% 0.0% -1.5% LA County U.S. Source: ESRI Business Analyst Source: ESRI Business Analyst Crocker Symposium | OCTOBER 29, 2013 7
JOB GROWTH LAGS POPULATION GROWTH Annual Employment and Household Growth Los Angeles MSA, 1990 – 2012 Los Angeles MSA, 1990 2012 200,000 +497,100 +497 100 100 000 100,000 new households 0 -100,000 -43,691 new jobs -200,000 -300,000 -400,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Employment Growth Household Growth Source: Moody’s; BLS Source: Moody s; BLS Crocker Symposium | OCTOBER 29, 2013 8
Taylor Mammen Principal / Director of Consulting Ph Phone: (310) 282-0437 (310) 282 0437 tmammen@rclco.com RCLCO 233 Wilshire Boulevard Suite 370 Santa Monica, CA 90401 Phone: (310) 914-1800 Fax: (310) 914-1810 www.rclco.com
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