DELTAS project 2014-2016 Development of a “Global Delta Vulnerability Index” Fabrice Renaud & Zita Sebesvari United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security
DELTAS Project Belmont Forum DELTAS Project: 2013-2016 “DELTAS: Catalyzing action towards sustainability of deltaic systems with an integrated modelling framework for risk assessment”
DELTAS: Partners USA : E. Foufoula-Georgiou and V. Voller (Univ. of MN); I. Overeem (Univ. of Colorado); S. Goodbred (Vanderbilt University); I. Harrison (Int. Union for Conservation of Nature); C. Vorosmarty and Z. Tessler (City College of New York); E. Brondizio (Indiana University) Japan : Y. Saito (Geological Survey of Japan, Japan); Germany : S. Dech and C. Kuenzer (University of Wuerzburg); F. Renaud, Z. Sebesvari (United Nations Univ.); France : E. Anthony (Aix-Marseille University); U.K : Z. Matthews, R. Nicholls, J. Dearing, A. Lazar, and A. Baschieri (Univ. of Southampton); J. Hutton (UNEP); India : R. Ramachandran (Anna Univ.) Netherlands : M. Marchand and T. Bucx (Deltares) Bangladesh : M.M. Rahman (Bangladesh Univ. of Engineering and Technology); Vietnam : V. L. Nguyen (Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology); M. Goichot (World Wide Fund for Nature – Greater Mekong) Norway : A. Newton (Norwegian Inst. for Air Research, Norway); Brazil : S. Costa (University of Vale do Paraíba), Canada : G. Lintern (Natural Resources Canada); P. Van Cappellen and H. Durr (University of Waterloo), China : S. Gao (Nanjing Univ.)
Governance • Process understanding Delta-SRES Economical • Coupled socio-ecologic system Social • Feedbacks Bio- • Thresholds Physical Socio-Political • Scenario development Stakeholder participation & consultation Biogeophysical Delta-RADS • Integrated model Delta-DAT development • Scenario testing Iterative • Data storage Learning • Visualisation • Spatial (GIS) analyses • Prototyping in 3 deltas: Delta-ACT GBM Amazon Delta-GDVI Mekong Delta Vulnerability & Resilience Analysis • Extend to other deltas
Vulnerability Assessment in DELTAS • Overall goal : To support planning and the implementation of adaptation options in delta systems by – developing an unified framework for assessing vulnerability at the sub-delta level – defining indicators that are quantifiable at the sub-delta scale and transferable in different delta contexts – applying a flexible indicator development process that combines scientific and local stakeholder-based approaches – conducting an assessment in the three demonstration deltas at the sub-delta scale – drawing lessons for application in other delta environments
Research steps Comprehensive review of vulnerability assessment frameworks and indicators in delta (coastal) context Local consultations in the three demonstration deltas at the sub- delta scale (Mekong: 2-3 April, GBM: 3-4 September 2014, Amazon: 12-13 May 2015) Identification of a set of indicators as a joint outcome of the desk-based studies and the 3 local consultations Collection of secondary and spatial data following the identification of indicators, model assessments Assessment and feedback to the model deltas
Basin Delta Subdelta Ecoystem Multi Hazard (H1+H2+...Hx) Ecosystem Ecosystem Ecosystem (natural, climatic, anthropogenic etc.) Thank you for your attention! exposure sensitivity robustness on the Social Ecological System Impacts Risk Coping, Social Social adaptation exposure sensitivity capacities Social Ecological Vulnerability Social System Provinces Countries RBOs Interaction with and from outside the SES Tipping and transformation processes Sebesvari & Renaud 2014, based on Turner et al. 2009, Garschagen 2014, Kloos et al. forthcoming
DELTAS Local Consultation in Dhaka 3-4 September 2014
Structure of the consultation • Select subdelta areas • Charachterize the hazards • Capture the impact chain • Apply the DELTAS vulnerability assessment framework (to be presented later) • Jointly identify possible indicators • Outcome: Consensus on selected indicators as a joint output of the consultation – to be revised using the review and the outcome of the other two consultation workshops
Consultation process • Selection of participants: inclusive approach, invite representatives from government, scientific organizations, NGOs, independent consultants, project partners • Participants started with the identification of hazards at the sub-delta level
Subdelta regions NorthWest delta: vulnerability to drought NorthEast delta: vulnerability related to flash floods and depression Floodplains : vulnerability to and „living with“ floods Coastal delta: coastal defense, brackish enviroment, vulnerability to storm surges, cyclones, salinity intrusion
„Drought group“
Drought-group Hazard mapping
Drought-group / Indicators Type Indicator Data Sources Scale Ecosystem Size of the entire area of the assessed sub-delta BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of District Exposure Statistics) Ecosystem % of sandy soils (related to water-holding capacity) Soil map: SRDI: Soil Resources Map:Upazilla Sensitivity Development Institute (2010 the level 1:50,000 latest version) % of rain-fed agriculture in the drought-prone area BBS District/ Upazilla % of area under GW irrigation Barind Multipurpose Upazilla Development Authority (BMDA) % of area permanently covered by water DAE (Department of Agricultural Upazilla Extension) % covered by drought-sensitive ecosystem types DAE and AIS – Agricultural District/ Upazilla Information System www.ais.gov.bd Ecosystem Grade of agricultural diversification (number of crops DAE / AIS Upazilla Robustness produced on an area exceeding a certain % of the overall area) % of area covered by trees Forest Department, BMDA Upazilla
Drought-group / Indicators Type Indicator Data Sources Scale Social Exposure Entire population of the assessed area BBS Upazilla Social Sensitivity % of landless people BBS Union % agricultural day labor workers BBS Union % children and elderly BBS Union % of population treated with diarrhoea during/after drought Directorate of Health Upazilla period Coping Capacity % of people temporarily migrating for work Collect locally Union % of people receiving short term NGO support / relief Collect locally Union % of people covered under the safety net program of government Collect locally Upazilla % of the population with access to health centers Directorate of Health Upazilla, Union Adaptive Capacity % of population receiving training to diversify income DAE Upazilla % of population under microfinance coverage NGOs Upazilla Number of water reservoirs per 1000 inhabitants BWDB (Bangladesh Water Upazilla, District Development Board) and DAE Number of GW pumps per 1000 inhabitants BWDB and DAE Upazilla, District % of farmers with access to drought tolerant varieties BMDA (Barind Multipurpose Upazilla Development Authority) % population having access to improved irrigation facilities DAE Upazilla % of farmers receiving training in water management DAE Upazilla
Way forward Comprehensive review of vulnerability assessment frameworks and indicators in delta (coastal) context Local consultations in the three demonstration deltas at the sub- delta scale (Mekong: 2-3 April, GBM: 3-4 September 2014, Amazon: early 2015) Identification of a set of indicators as a joint outcome of the desk-based studies and the 3 local consultations (ongoing) Collection of secondary and spatial data following the identification of indicators, model assessments (April 2016) Feedback to the model deltas
Special thank to ICCCAD
Thank you! sebesvari@ehs.unu.edu renaud@ehs.unu.edu
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