Delta Counties Coalition Discussion on Alternatives to CA WaterFix - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Delta Counties Coalition Discussion on Alternatives to CA WaterFix Don Nottoli, Sacramento County Supervisor Chuck Winn, San Joaquin County Supervisor Katherine Miller, San Joaquin County Supervisor Diane Burgis, Contra Costa County Supervisor August 25, 2017 Attachment 1 Page 1 of 17

Delta Counties Coalition Discussion on Alternatives to CA WaterFix Introduction Overview: Delta Counties Coalition  Alternatives to CA WaterFix  Presentation by Dr. Jeffrey Michael, University of the Pacific  How can we work together?  Attachment 1 Page 2 of 17

Delta Counties Coalition Discussion on Alternatives to CA WaterFix Overview: Delta Counties Coalition The DCC works to give one voice to the Delta.  Our goals: improve the Delta ecosystem, provide a more reliable  water supply for the State, and protect and enhance Delta communities. The DCC works with local, state, and federal stakeholders to  develop and implement solutions that address California’s water issues in a comprehensive, sustainable manner. The DCC is about a diversified approach to CA water needs.  Attachment 1 Page 3 of 17

Delta Counties Coalition Discussion on Alternatives to CA WaterFix Alternatives to CA WaterFix Invest in statewide and regional  water storage Upgrade current infrastructure  Levee system improvements  Conservation/water use  efficiency Environmental restoration  Attachment 1 Page 4 of 17

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF WATERFIX TO ALTERNATIVE PORTFOLIOS: JOBS, WATER SUPPLY, ENVIRONMENT, AND FLOOD PROTECTION Dr. Jeffrey Michael University of the Pacific San Jose, CA August 25, 2017 jmichael@pacific.edu Attachment 1 Page 5 of 17

Analytical Framework  Are likely alternatives a “Pareto Improvement”?  At least as good as WaterFix in every criteria, and  Clearly superior in at least one area  Criteria:  Cost  Water Supply  Environmental (i.e. fish) impacts  Protection from Earthquake or Sea-Level Rise  Job Creation Attachment 1 Page 6 of 17

Alternative Actions Considered  Levees  Recycling: Indirect Potable and Non-potable.  Desalination: Seawater and Brackish  Stormwater Capture  Surface Storage  Other Govt Spending (i.e. Housing, Health, Educ.) Alternatives Not Considered:  Efficiency/Conservation  Groundwater Storage  West Delta Conveyance  New Technology Attachment 1 Page 7 of 17

4 Alternative Portfolios  All scenarios  Include $2-4 billion for Delta levees  Each alternative investment is <50% of 2030 potential.  Two scenarios focused on water supply.  no surface storage and desalination in one alternative.  Environment Focus (SCVWD staff no-tunnel scenario)  Water supply scenario with a 1 maf cut to exports.  Ratepayer Focus  $8 billion to alternatives, ratepayers save $8 billion. Attachment 1 Page 8 of 17

5 ways to spend $16 Billion Water Water Water WaterFix Supply 1 Supply 2 and Fish Taxpayers Tunnels 16 Levees 4 4 4 2 Indirect Potable Reuse 3 5 5 2 Non-potable Reuse 2 4 4 1 Desalination Seawater 1 1 Desalination Brackish 1 1 1 1 Stormwater capture 1 2 2 1 Surface Storage 4 Lower Rates 4 Attachment 1 Other Govt Spending 4 Page 9 of 17

Annual Average Water Yield per $1 billion capital investment. af per $1billion Tunnels with EIR baseline 11,000 Tunnels with SCVWD staff baseline 75,000 Indirect Potable Reuse 88,000 Non-potable Reuse 137,000 Desalination Seawater 56,000 Desalination Brackish 92,000 Stormwater capture 152,000 Surface Storage 46,000 Attachment 1 Page 10 of 17

Results with EIR baseline WaterFix Water Water Environment Ratepayers Supply 1 Supply 2 Net New Water Supply (acre feet, avg. annual) 172,000 884,000 1,430,000 430,000 659,000 Negative, but permitted if Little to Little to Impact to Fish no jeopardy Little to None None Positive None California Jobs Created From Investment (in job years) 119,000 160,000 160,000 160,000 136,000 Protects Protects Protects Protects all Water Water Water interests, but Protects Export, Export, Export, Seismic and Flood Risk at lower Water export Other Other Other Protection level than only Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure water supply , Property, , Property, , Property, alternatives. Public Safety Public Safety Public Safety Increased Consumption of Attachment 1 None None None None $8 billion Other Goods and Services Page 11 of 17

Results with SCVWD staff business case baseline (Environment Scenario on previous slide). WaterFix Water Supply Water Supply Ratepayers 1 2 Net New Water Supply (acre feet) 1,200,000 884,004 1,430,000 659,000 Impact to Fish Very Negative Little to None Little to None Little to None Jobs Created (in job years) 119,000 160,000 160,000 136,000 Protects Protects all Protects Water Water Export, interests, but Export, Other Seismic and Flood Risk Protection Protects Water Other at lower level Infrastructure, export only Infrastructure, than water Property, Property, supply Public Safety Public Safety alternatives. Increased Consumption of Other None None None $8 billion Attachment 1 Goods and Services Page 12 of 17

Is the SCVWD staff declining baseline justified?  The operating constraint on OMR flows produces far more environmental benefit without WaterFix.  More freshwater outflow to Bay-Delta.  No harm to fish from North Delta Intakes.  WaterFix operations could also be subject to future cuts: No regulatory assurance in Section 7 permit.  “Apples to Apples” comparison should be based on comparable environmental performance.  WaterFix is worse for Delta fish than No Action according to Biological Opinions.  WaterFix yield is on declining trend too. Attachment 1 Page 13 of 17

Water Supply from Tunnels is on a declining trend too. Avg. Annual WaterFix Yield Insurance against future Compared to the No Action regulatory actions. Alternative 2007 BDCP Objectives 1,500,000 af Yes, Section 10 ESA regulatory assurance 2013 draft BDCP EIR 392,000 af Yes, Section 10 ESA regulatory assurance. 2015 recirculated EIR 255,000 af No, Section 7 permit 2016 Draft Biological 225,000 af No, Section 7 permit Assessment Jan 2017 Final EIR 172,000 af No, Section 7 permit June 2017: Revised project Adds unlimited pulse flows for No, Section 7 permit description for Biops salmon, not included in water supply modeling No, Section 7 permit Biological Opinions for ? Operations Attachment 1 No, Section 7 permit SWRCB Permit ? Page 14 of 17

WaterFix Cost versus Yield 2014 dollars. Source: Stratecon, Dr. Rodney Smith $7,000 EIR baseline $6,000 $5,000 $ per acre foot $4,000 $3,000 Staff alternative baseline $2,000 $1,000 $- 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Yield (million acre feet ) Attachment 1 Page 15 of 17

Conclusion  Due to local decisions, we can’t predict the exact alternative to WaterFix.  Analysis demonstrates many plausible alternative portfolios are better for California than WaterFix.  Alternatives are Pareto improvements:  Achieves every goal at least as well as WaterFix.  Far superior to WaterFix in at least one area.  Thus, California is better off under wide range of likely alternative paths. Attachment 1 Page 16 of 17

Delta Counties Coalition Discussion on Alternatives to CA WaterFix How can we work together? Thank you. Attachment 1 Page 17 of 17