Deep Sea Coral Analysis Overview of approach and analysis of Option - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Deep Sea Coral Analysis Overview of approach and analysis of Option 7 NEFSC Social Sciences Branch December 20, 2017

Utilize multiple data sources • Attempt to overcome shortcomings in each • Vessel Trip Report (VTR) • “Census” of fishing trips • Only one lat-lon per trip • Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) • Higher spatial resolution • Only lat-lon of poll, time stamp, and vessel identifier U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

VTR data set • Joined VTR to NEFOP & ASM hauls • Statistical model estimates distance between observed hauls and VTR locations • Data indicates a trip’s spatial resolution • Depends on trip length, gear employed, region U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Use statistical model to assess confidence intervals • Distances equate to 25, 50, 75, 90 percentiles • Depends on trip length, area, and gear U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

Comparison of results

Comparison of VTR against observed hauls Point Aggregation Confidence Interval Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Gillnet Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Gillnet Mean 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -0.0002% Ten minute square Median -0.01% -0.004% -0.01% 0.01% 0.004% 0.01% Standard Deviation 0.56% 0.21% 0.59% 0.41% 0.12% 0.31% Mean 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 500 meters squared Median -0.002% -0.001% -0.01 0% 0% 0% Standard Deviation 0.05% 0.02% 0.14 0.002% 0.001% 0.005% U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Total mispredicted error (observed fishing and predicted nonfishing + no observed fishing and predicted fishing) • Point aggregation/Confidence interval mispredicted revenue Ten Minute Square 500 m 2 Gillnet 1.14494448 1.79742 Bottom Trawl 1.452881638 2.063841 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

Revenue by Gear Option 7 (revised Dec 2017) Option 6 (600 m min) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8

Percent of Owner Revenue Option 7 (revised Dec 2017) Option 6 (600 m min) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

Top 10 species Species Prefered Alternative Option 7 Percentage Increase BUTTERFISH 0.3 0.3 9% FLOUNDER, SUMMER 0.2 0.3 9% FLOUNDER, YELLOWTAIL 0.1 0.1 14% HADDOCK 0.1 0.2 14% HAKE, SILVER 1.1 1.2 11% INSHORE LONGFIN SQUID 0.7 0.7 10% MONKFISH 0.1 0.1 16% Other 0.2 0.2 11% SCALLOP, SEA 1.1 1.3 15% SKATES 0.0 Not Top 10 SQUID (ILLEX) 0.1 0.1 9% MACKEREL, ATLANTIC Not Top 10 0.0 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

VMS as secondary data source • Statistical models generally outperform more widespread speed rules • Muench, DePiper, & Demarest (CJFAS 2017) • Records & Demarest (Mimeo) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

VMS Bottom Trawl Predictions Observed Hauls VMS Model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12

VMS Coverage of VTR trips is high Broad Zone Option 7 Gear Year Permits VTR Trips VMS Trips Coverage Bottom Trawl 2010 132 968 910 94% Bottom Trawl 2011 124 848 768 91% Bottom Trawl 2012 138 706 614 87% Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge 2010 19 20 18 90% Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge 2011 82 100 96 96% Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge 2012 194 265 257 97% Separator & Ruhle Trawl 2010 20 71 53 75% Separator & Ruhle Trawl 2011 33 135 114 84% Separator & Ruhle Trawl 2012 20 49 35 71% U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13

VMS Weighted effort (Percent of all permit weighted effort) Option 7 (revised Dec 2017) Option 6 (600 m min) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14

Option 7 probability weighted effort Gear Year Hours Fished Trips Permits Gear Year Hours Fished Trips Permits Bottom Trawl 2005 19 27 19 LA Scallop 2005 0 64 53 Bottom Trawl 2006 7 37 21 LA Scallop 2006 0 131 64 Bottom Trawl 2007 16 48 26 LA Scallop 2007 0 19 18 Bottom Trawl 2008 35 68 32 LA Scallop 2008 0 14 13 Bottom Trawl 2009 45 70 29 LA Scallop 2009 0 28 27 Bottom Trawl 2010 41 87 31 LA Scallop 2010 0 29 28 Bottom Trawl 2011 24 54 20 LA Scallop 2011 0 24 19 Bottom Trawl 2012 9 58 30 LA Scallop 2012 0 31 26 GC Scallop 2005 NA NA 0 Squid Trawl 2005 3 35 20 GC Scallop 2006 NA NA 1 Squid Trawl 2006 4 60 29 GC Scallop 2007 NA NA 0 Squid Trawl 2007 16 90 37 GC Scallop 2008 NA NA 0 Squid Trawl 2008 0 13 9 GC Scallop 2009 NA NA 0 Squid Trawl 2009 8 22 6 GC Scallop 2010 NA NA 0 Squid Trawl 2010 2 19 9 GC Scallop 2011 NA NA 1 Squid Trawl 2011 5 19 10 GC Scallop 2012 NA NA 1 Squid Trawl 2012 1 8 6 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

In summary • The combined analysis indicates very few individuals have substantial exposure to Option 7 • VTR generally overestimates exposure • VMS coverage lacking for some highly exposed individuals • Predominantly landing longfin squid, silver hake, & butterfish • 19 of top 20 permits in 2013 • 10 of top 20 permits in 2014 • 7 of top 20 permits in 2015 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

Questions? U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17

Raw Distance Statistics Gear # Hauls Mean Median Std. Dev. Min Max Bottom Trawl/Pot 130,385 16.33 6.51 23.87 0 284.83 Drift Gillnet 1,271 4.06 1.25 8.33 0 96.18 Longline 4,233 4.65 1.30 11.29 0 131.44 Midwater Trawl 3,626 10.66 3.31 19.47 0 204.39 Dredge 291,718 10.31 4.09 17.33 0 303.51 Sink Gillnet 34,462 5.41 1.77 12.24 0 186.59

Observer coverage Gear Ton class 2010 rate 2011 rate 2012 rate 2013 rate Scallop Dredge 1 0.00 2.96 3.35 4.23 Scallop Dredge 2 2.15 1.98 1.16 3.04 Scallop Dredge 3 3.70 4.05 5.03 6.13 Scallop Dredge 4 7.64 8.33 11.40 10.93 Gillnet 1 4.16 8.49 6.87 6.18 Gillnet 2 12.29 12.78 10.95 5.71 Gillnet 3 16.84 19.93 16.28 11.81 Gillnet 4 0 NA 0 NA Bottom Trawl 1 3.73 2.24 2.30 2.18 Bottom Trawl 2 6.60 8.93 8.89 7.69 Bottom Trawl 3 7.94 10.36 8.73 9.27 Bottom Trawl 4 16.51 21.30 17.78 15.15 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19