Science for the Coral Science for the Coral Triangle: Underpinning a Triangle: Underpinning a sustainable future sustainable future Terry Hughes Terry Hughes
Drivers of Change on Coral Reefs • Human population growth and migration • Wealth distribution and evolving markets • Leading to runoff from land, over-fishing, and climate change (the “threats”) …..the scale of all of these requires unprecidented international cooperation.
The Coral Triangle Initiative: Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security
Phase Shifts and Tipping Points.
GBRMPA GBRMPA Historical Photograph: 1890
David Wackenfeld Wackenfeld Mainland Queensland Today David Same site: 1994
Coral reefs – Past, Present….Future
Robust fisheries, food security and healthy ecosystems are inseparable: What happens to the rest of the ecosystem if you remove fish? What happens to the fishes if their habitat is damaged?
What happens to the rest of the ecosystem if you remove fish?
Loss of fish biodiversity is Loss of fish biodiversity is important because they play important because they play critical ecological roles critical ecological roles Inside fenced plots
NTA Adult Flux How do NTA’s work? Outside
Kimbe Bay MPA Network Draft management plan Kimbe Island 0 10 20km
NTAs - Recovery of Fish Stocks APO ISLAND - PHILIPPINES 25 MEAN BIOMASS y = 1.8492e 0.1228x 20 (kg/1000m2) 15 reserve nonreserve 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 YEARS OF PROTECTION Russ, Stockwell and Alcala (2005)
Scientific & political partnership • No-take marine reserves, managed by local communities, play key role in biodiversity conservation & fisheries management. • Innovative national legislation, established new property rights & sustainable fisheries. Garry Russ & Angel Alcala
Climate- -change Impacts: change Impacts: Climate Coral Bleaching Coral Bleaching 1998, 2002, ???? 1998, 2002, ????
What happens to the fishes if their What happens to the fishes if their habitat is damaged? habitat is damaged?
Impact of habitat-loss on reef fisheries 40 35 Before After 30 Fish abundance 25 20 15 10 5 0 Generalists Coral-dependent Graham (2007)
Impact of climate change on tuna Tonnes of fish per km2 Skipjack tuna ( Katsuwonus pelamis ) Pratchett et al. (2008) CTI Briefing Paper No. 9
SUMMARY • Reefs are threatened, not doomed - if we can avoid extreme climate change. •Climate change, runoff and over-fishing are the three big issues that have to be addressed together • Prevention is better than cure • We can chose to steer the trajectory of the planet one way or another ( but it will never again look like it did in 1800, 1900 or 2000 ): The decisions we make now, or don't make, will have profound long-term consequences.
International Linkages A global network of scientists
Scoping Papers for Townsville Forum 1. The Coral Triangle region 2. Existing non-spatial management within the Coral Triangle 3. Existing spatial management within the CT 4. Resilience and shifting baselines 5. Data sufficiency and dealing with uncertainty 6. Incorporating and monitoring human uses and values 7. Participatory marine resource management 8. Climate change 9. Fisheries and climate change 10. Connectivity, larval survival/robustness & stressors 11. Threatened species 12. MPA objectives, multiple-use zones, no-take zones 13. MPA network design 14. Capacity building for marine resource management 15. Long-term biophysical monitoring 16. Climate change adaptation
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