DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE EU ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS GOALS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE EU ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS GOALS Sujeetha Selvakkumaran, Ph. D Semida Silveira, Ph. D KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden 1 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

What are the EU’s energy and climate goals? 5,000 EU28 E Ener ergy a y and 4,500 Basis is o of comparis ison 2020 2020 2030 2030 Climate te ta target ets GHG emissions (Mt-CO2eq) 4,000 3,114 Mt-CO2eq 3,500 GHG e GHG emis issio ion Compared to 1990 GHG 3,000 -20% -40% ta target et levels 2,966 Mt-CO2eq 2,500 Percentage renewable 2,000 2,478 Mt-CO2eq Renewable e Re energy energy sources (RES) in With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario 20% 27% 1,500 ta target et primary energy With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario 1,000 consumption GHG goals, as stated in the INDC 500 Compared to 2005 Energy e efficiency cy 0 primary energy -13% -20% ta target et 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 consumption Years WEM and WAM numbers are compiled from: Dejean F. Trends and projections in Europe 2015 — Tracking progress towards Europe’s climate and energy targets. Copenhagen: 2015.(EEA) GHG goals stated in the INDC are compiled from: Submission By Latvia and the European Commission on Behalf of the European Union and its Member States - Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the EU and its Member States 2015;2015:1–7 2 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

What are we looking at through this study? The quantitative effects of energy intensity and emission intensity of energy on the energy sector GHG emissions of the EU in the past years. The reduction in energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy required to achieve the 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, compared to 1990. 3 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

What is Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA)? • The principle of deconstructing an aggregate environmental indicator to give quantitative measures of the relative contributions of a set of causal factors (Ang and Liu, 2001). • There are many such IDA methods, and this paper employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI) method, as detailed by Ang and Liu (2001). The reasons for using this particular IDA method are multi-fold: •  has perfect decomposition,  has consistency in aggregation,  can be used in both additive and multiplicative forms, and  has moderate complexity. 4 22 ND INTERNATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH SOCIETY CONFERENCE SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

The mathematical representation of LMDI 1 formulation ∑ ∑ GDP E EM GDP E Ei EMi = = × × × × = × × × EM EMi P EM P P GDP E Ei P GDP E i i Where; The GHG emissions given as a EM = GHG emissions; multiplicative factor of population, P = population; GDP per capita, energy intensity and emission intensity of energy is GDP = Gross Domestic Product; known as Kaya Identi tity ty . E = total primary energy; Ei = energy of i th sector and EM i = GHG emissions from i th sector 5 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

RESULTS 6 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

EU28 28 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Cum umula ulativ ive Belgium -2.54 -2.83 -2.99 2.28 -7.11 4.72 -9.28 -1.75 -0.44 -19.92 Bulgaria 0.77 1.03 3.60 -0.88 -5.70 2.04 5.14 -4.81 -5.71 -4.52 Czech Republic -0.58 0.69 0.15 -4.66 -5.63 1.05 -1.53 -4.13 -4.19 -18.84 Denmark -3.69 7.89 -4.83 -3.26 -2.02 0.47 -5.22 -4.63 1.81 -13.46 Germany -19.90 9.53 -26.99 5.50 -57.99 39.53 -21.35 7.42 23.16 -41.08 Estonia -0.71 -0.64 2.89 -1.52 -2.60 3.64 0.49 -1.38 2.20 2.38 Ireland 1.82 -0.50 -0.04 0.10 -4.48 -0.37 -3.48 0.07 -1.21 -8.09 Greece 3.05 -1.26 2.45 -3.26 -4.45 -7.16 -1.30 -4.07 -8.43 -24.43 Spain 14.52 -9.66 7.39 -27.47 -34.50 -14.29 2.41 -2.97 -25.96 -90.53 France 3.49 -9.70 -10.05 -5.44 -15.95 8.01 -26.44 3.60 1.19 -51.29 The differential Croatia 0.31 0.21 1.21 -1.25 -1.23 -0.86 -0.48 -1.87 -0.56 -4.53 in GHG Italy -2.54 -4.98 -8.91 -7.88 -44.11 9.96 -11.98 -22.72 -27.49 -120.64 emissions (Mt- Cyprus 0.18 0.18 0.33 0.17 -0.08 -0.23 -0.28 -0.51 -0.97 -1.23 CO2eq) from Latvia 0.11 0.42 0.32 -0.45 -0.71 0.75 -0.86 -0.30 -0.11 -0.82 Lithuania 0.70 0.15 0.23 -0.13 -1.22 0.89 -0.85 0.00 -0.58 -0.80 2004 to 2013, Luxembourg 0.25 -0.21 -0.60 -0.16 -0.47 0.56 -0.17 -0.27 -0.59 -1.67 by country Hungary -0.59 -0.68 -1.51 -0.61 -4.79 0.51 -1.81 -3.48 -2.25 -15.21 Malta 0.07 -0.03 0.08 -0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.04 0.14 -0.38 -0.21 Netherlands -4.87 -3.26 0.00 4.22 -4.55 11.21 -13.57 -2.72 -0.36 -13.92 Austria 0.40 -3.35 -3.31 -0.48 -3.15 2.99 -2.33 -2.27 -0.38 -11.88 Poland -0.24 11.20 -3.42 -6.47 -11.41 20.14 -5.81 -5.02 -4.26 -5.29 Portugal 2.59 -4.63 -3.09 -1.64 -1.05 -5.05 -0.86 -1.65 -1.95 -17.33 Romania -2.55 2.05 -2.30 -1.10 -12.02 -5.89 4.97 -1.19 -9.55 -27.58 Slovenia 0.22 0.18 0.11 1.01 -1.61 0.07 0.01 -0.55 -0.74 -1.30 Slovakia 0.47 -0.97 -1.54 0.91 -2.89 0.57 -0.43 -2.51 0.24 -6.16 Finland -11.78 11.16 -2.12 -8.23 -2.04 7.67 -7.12 -5.30 0.74 -17.03 Sweden -2.35 -0.11 -1.16 -1.75 -1.85 4.16 -3.94 -2.41 -1.62 -11.01 7 United Kingdom -3.61 -1.28 -11.06 -12.05 -45.80 16.96 -41.95 19.18 -11.49 -91.10 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016 Cum umula ulativ ive -26. 26.99 99 0. 0.61 61 -65. 65.15 15 -74. 74.53 53 -279. 279.48 102. 102.06 -147. 147.97 -46. 46.14 14 -79. 79.90 90 -617. 617.49

EU28 28 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Cum umula ulativ ive Belgium -2.54 -2.83 -2.99 2.28 -7.11 4.72 -9.28 -1.75 -0.44 -19.92 Bulgaria 0.77 1.03 3.60 -0.88 -5.70 2.04 5.14 -4.81 -5.71 -4.52 Czech Republic -0.58 0.69 0.15 -4.66 -5.63 1.05 -1.53 -4.13 -4.19 -18.84 Denmark -3.69 7.89 -4.83 -3.26 -2.02 0.47 -5.22 -4.63 1.81 -13.46 Germany -19.90 9.53 -26.99 5.50 -57.99 39.53 -21.35 7.42 23.16 -41.08 Estonia -0.71 -0.64 2.89 -1.52 -2.60 3.64 0.49 -1.38 2.20 2.38 Ireland 1.82 -0.50 -0.04 0.10 -4.48 -0.37 -3.48 0.07 -1.21 -8.09 Greece 3.05 -1.26 2.45 -3.26 -4.45 -7.16 -1.30 -4.07 -8.43 -24.43 Spain 14.52 -9.66 7.39 -27.47 -34.50 -14.29 2.41 -2.97 -25.96 -90.53 France 3.49 -9.70 -10.05 -5.44 -15.95 8.01 -26.44 3.60 1.19 -51.29 The differential Croatia 0.31 0.21 1.21 -1.25 -1.23 -0.86 -0.48 -1.87 -0.56 -4.53 in GHG Italy -2.54 -4.98 -8.91 -7.88 -44.11 9.96 -11.98 -22.72 -27.49 -120.64 emissions (Mt- Cyprus 0.18 0.18 0.33 0.17 -0.08 -0.23 -0.28 -0.51 -0.97 -1.23 CO2eq) from Latvia 0.11 0.42 0.32 -0.45 -0.71 0.75 -0.86 -0.30 -0.11 -0.82 Lithuania 0.70 0.15 0.23 -0.13 -1.22 0.89 -0.85 0.00 -0.58 -0.80 2004 to 2013, Luxembourg 0.25 -0.21 -0.60 -0.16 -0.47 0.56 -0.17 -0.27 -0.59 -1.67 by country. Hungary -0.59 -0.68 -1.51 -0.61 -4.79 0.51 -1.81 -3.48 -2.25 -15.21 Malta 0.07 -0.03 0.08 -0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.04 0.14 -0.38 -0.21 Netherlands -4.87 -3.26 0.00 4.22 -4.55 11.21 -13.57 -2.72 -0.36 -13.92 Austria 0.40 -3.35 -3.31 -0.48 -3.15 2.99 -2.33 -2.27 -0.38 -11.88 Poland -0.24 11.20 -3.42 -6.47 -11.41 20.14 -5.81 -5.02 -4.26 -5.29 Portugal 2.59 -4.63 -3.09 -1.64 -1.05 -5.05 -0.86 -1.65 -1.95 -17.33 Romania -2.55 2.05 -2.30 -1.10 -12.02 -5.89 4.97 -1.19 -9.55 -27.58 Slovenia 0.22 0.18 0.11 1.01 -1.61 0.07 0.01 -0.55 -0.74 -1.30 Slovakia 0.47 -0.97 -1.54 0.91 -2.89 0.57 -0.43 -2.51 0.24 -6.16 Finland -11.78 11.16 -2.12 -8.23 -2.04 7.67 -7.12 -5.30 0.74 -17.03 Sweden -2.35 -0.11 -1.16 -1.75 -1.85 4.16 -3.94 -2.41 -1.62 -11.01 8 United Kingdom -3.61 -1.28 -11.06 -12.05 -45.80 16.96 -41.95 19.18 -11.49 -91.10 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016 Cum umula ulativ ive -26. 26.99 99 0. 0.61 61 -65. 65.15 15 -74. 74.53 53 -279. 279.48 102. 102.06 -147. 147.97 -46. 46.14 14 -79. 79.90 90 -617. 617.49

The EU28 decomposition from 2009 to 2010 and adjacent years Δ 2009 -20 2008 08 Δ 2010 -20 2009 09 Δ 2011 -20 2010 10 100% Emission intensity of energy Energy intensity 80% GDP per capita 52.9% 60% Population composition Total population change 40% 66.9% 20% 40.6% 0% -20% -27.8% -63.2% -140.9% -40% -60% -23.5% -80% -6.7% -18.3% -100% 9 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016