Decision on the 2013-2014 ISO Transmission Plan Neil Millar Executive Director, Infrastructure Development Board of Governors Meeting General Session March 19-20, 2014
Approving the plan means approving determinations and recommendations contained in the plan, including: • Nine projects – each of which is over $50 million – 6 new transmission reliability projects – 2 policy driven projects – 1 economically driven project • Five new transmission reliability projects less $50 million. Page 2
2013/2014 Transmission Planning Process Four Consultation Windows April 2013 March 2014 October 2014 ISO Board Approval of Transmission Plan Coordination of Conceptual Statewide Plan Phase 3 Request for bids, receive Phase 1 proposals, evaluate, and award to successful Development of ISO unified applicant to build identified planning assumptions and Phase 2 reliability, policy and study plan economic transmission Technical Studies and Board Approval projects. • State and Federal policy • Reliability analysis requirements and directives • Renewable delivery analysis • Demand forecasts, energy • Economic analysis efficiency, demand response • Central California Study • Renewable and • Publish comprehensive transmission plan conventional generation additions and retirements • Input from stakeholders Continued regional and sub-regional coordination Slide 3
Summary of Needed Reliability Driven Transmission Projects Service Territory Number of Projects Cost ($ Million) Pacific Gas & Electric 14 $486.4 (PG&E) Southern California Edison 2 $626.0 Co. (SCE) San Diego Gas & Electric 11 $584.0 Co. (SDG&E) Valley Electric Association 1 0.1 (VEA) Total 28 $1,696.5 Slide 4
PG&E has identified a reliability risk for supply to the San Francisco Peninsula. • The loss of a major substation impacting supply to the entire San Francisco peninsula • The ISO is expediting a risk analysis with PG&E to establish the need for reinforcement • A stakeholder process will be conducted to review the need and identify alternatives • Depending on outcome of analysis and stakeholder process Management may pursue an amendment to the plan at a later Board meeting • Upgrades to the TransBay Cable previously approved will provide partial relief in the interim Page 5
The needs in the Southern California area are a major focus of the plan, building on previous approvals: Converted Huntington Reconfigured Barre-Ellis 230kV Beach Units 3&4 to lines from two to four circuits Synchronous (2013) Condensers (2013) New 11-mile 230 kV line from Installed 320 MVAR of Sycamore to Penasquitos (2017) shunt capacitors in Orange County (2013) 930 MVAR Dynamic Reactive Support: • 480 MVAR at SONGS Mesa (4Q 2017) • 450 MVAR at Talega Substation (2015) Page 6 Slide 6
Less than half of the gas-fired generation retiring in the LA Basin / San Diego area is being replaced with new gas generation – despite 3,000 MW of projected net load growth* and SONGS retirement. 10000 New Gas Generation 9000 Maximum residual Walnut Creek 500 need El Segundo Energy Center 550 8000 Track 1 SCE - LA Basin Request 1200 Incremental Track 4 SCE - LA Basin (gas) 200 7000 Transmission Benefits Track 1 SDG&E (Pio Pico/Escondido) 308 Track 4 SDG&E Request 550 6000 Additional Achievable Total 3308 Energy Efficiency Gas Retirements (2011-2022) 5000 Encina 946 Other Preferred Resources and El Segundo #3 335 4000 Storage El Segundo #4 335 Alamitos 2011 Nuclear (SONGS) 3000 Huntington Beach 904 Redondo 1342 2000 Etiwanda 640 New Gas Resources Long Beach 260 1000 Cabrillo Power II 188 Total 6961 0 2011 2022 * The 2012 net load forecast growth in the LA Basin and San Diego already relies on approximately 2400 MW of incremental energy efficiency from approved programs and standards. Slide 7
Transmission options evaluated in the Transmission Plan were grouped by similar characteristics: • Group I - Transmission upgrades optimizing use of existing transmission lines – without new rights of way. [Recommending 3 projects for approval] • Group II - Transmission lines strengthening LA/San Diego connection – optimizing use of corridors into the combined area. [Recommending further study as potential reliability solution] • Group III - New transmission into the greater LA Basin/San Diego area. [Recommending further study as potential reliability and policy solution] Page 8
Group I: Transmission Upgrades Optimizing Use of Existing Transmission Lines (3) Mesa Loop-In (4) Huntington Beach or electrically Alberhill equivalent reactive support (to be re- Alamitos evaluated in future planning cycle) Suncrest (1) Install additional 450 MVAR at San Luis Rey Substation. Imperial Valley (2) Imperial Valley Flow Controller Page 9 Page 9
Summary of Costs and Benefits of Group I Transmission Upgrades recommended for approval: No. Transmission Upgrade Option Proposed In- Estimated Cost ($ Local Resources Service Date Million) Reduction Benefits (MW) Additional 450 MVAR of dynamic reactive support at San Luis Rey 1 June 2018 ~$80 M -100 to -200 (i.e., two 225 MVAR synchronous condensers) Imperial Valley Flow Controller 2 (Back to back HVDC convertor or June 2018 $55 - $300 M -400 to -840 Phase Shifting transformer) 3 Mesa Loop-In Project December 2020 $464 - $614 M -300 to -640 TOTAL $599 - $994 M -800 to -1680 Page 10
Group II: New Transmission Lines Strengthening LA Basin and San Diego Connection (1) TE-VS-new Case Springs 500kV line: $700 – $750 million, 1100-1500 MW impact depending on options, can complement Mesa Loop In adding additional 200 to 400 MW impact. (3) Valley – Inland 500kV AC (or DC): Valley Options range from $1.6 to $4 billion, Alberhill Alamitos impact of 1200 MW to 1400 MW depending on design, complementary with Mesa Loop In adding 300 to 600 Proposed Case MW incremental impact Proposed Springs Inland Suncrest (2) HDVC submarine cable from Alamitos to four termination options: Encina, SONGS, Imperial Valley Penasquitos and Bay Blvd. (South Bay) $700 - $800 million, 1200 MW impact. Also, complementary with Mesa Loop In, adding Page 11 550 MW incremental impact. Page 11
Group III: New Transmission into the Greater LA Basin/San Diego Area Alamitos Proposed Inland Imperial Valley – San Diego area (500kV AC or Suncrest DC) Line – a number of options range from $0.9 to $5.7 billion, delivering 1300 to 1400 MW incremental impact. Complementary with Imperial Valley Mesa Loop In adding approximately 600 MW additional impact. Page 12 Page 12
Six reliability projects over $50 million are recommended for Board approval. • Mesa Loop-in – Looping the Vincent-Mira Loma 500 kV transmission line into the existing Mesa Substation, and upgrading the substation to include a 500 kV bus. • Install Dynamic Reactive Support at San Luis Rey 230 kV Substation – Adding synchronous condensers at the San Luis Rey Substation to provide voltage support to the transmission system in the San Onofre area. • Imperial Valley Flow Controller – Installing a phase shifter or back-to-back HVDC flow control device on path to CFE. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- • Artesian 230 kV substation and loop-in – Upgrading the existing Artesian substation to 230 kV to provide a new source into the 69 kV system. • Midway-Kern PP #2 230 kV line – Reconductoring and unbundling the existing Midway-Kern PP 230 kV line into two circuits and looping one of the new circuits into the Bakersfield substation. • Wheeler Ridge Junction Station – Building a new 230/115 kV substation at Wheeler Ridge Junction and converting the existing Wheeler Ridge- Lamont 115 kV to 230 kV operation. Slide 13
Five reliability projects less than $50 million are recommended for Board approval. • Greater Bay area: – New Spring substation near Morgan Hill • San Diego area: – Bernardo-Rancho Carmel-Poway 69 kV lines upgrade replacing Sycamore-Bernardo 69 kV project – Miramar-Mesa Rim 69 kV system reconfiguration – 2nd Escondido-San Marcos 69 kV Line – Voltage Support at Miguel 500/230 kV Substation Slide 14
Two policy driven substation-related solutions have been identified and recommended for Board approval. • 300 Mvar dynamic reactive support at Suncrest, and • a Lugo-Mohave series capacitor and related terminal upgrades A deficiency in renewable generation deliverability from Imperial Valley due to the early retirement of SONGS was identified and will require further assessment in the 2014/2015 planning process. Slide 15
Imperial Valley Deliverability Issue • In 2011, the ISO targeted achieving 1400 MW incremental import capacity from IID • CPUC directed utilities to consider up to this amount deliverable in procurement, and incorporated this into renewables portfolios • Prior plans indicated approved transmission upgrades could, once completed, accommodate up to 1700 MW (total) from Imperial Valley • This year’s plan identified that, due to SONGS retirement, no new deliverability beyond existing levels would be available in the long term • Mitigations proposed in this plan provide up to 1000 MW of additional renewable deliverability from this area in the long term • The ISO will determine the additional reinforcements to achieve the targeted levels in the 2014/2015 plan Page 16
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