CSYS 300 COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, Photos placed in horizontal - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, Photos placed in horizontal position METHODS & APPLICATIONS with even amount of white space between photos and header WELCOME, SYLLABUS, EXAMPLES OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS (AND THEIR FAILURES) STEVE KLEBAN, KEVIN L. STAMBER, THERESA BROWN Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (USA) Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2014-2179 C

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Welcome, Syllabus, Examples of Complex Systems (and their Failures) Outline of Presentation  Brief Biographical Note  Welcome  What This Class is about  Syllabus  Class Project  What is a Complex System?  Examples of Complex Systems  Examples of Complex Systems Failures  Understanding Complex Systems  Summary  Question & Answer Session 2

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Welcome, Syllabus, Examples of Complex Systems (and their Failures) Brief Biographical Note on Kevin L. Stamber  BSIE University of Pittsburgh  MSIE, Ph. D. Purdue University  Staff, State Utility Forecasting Group  Sandia National Laboratories, 1998 ‐ present  Critical Infrastructure Modeling, Simulation & Analysis  DOE Power Outage Study Team (1998 ‐ 99)  National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)  Analysis Lead  Chemical Supply Chain Modeling  Infrastructure Resource Allocation and Prioritization during Incidents (IRAPI)  Member IIE, INFORMS 3

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Welcome, Syllabus, Examples of Complex Systems (and their Failures) Brief Biographical Note on Theresa Brown  Ph.D. Geology (University of Wisconsin ‐ Madison), M.A. Geology (UT ‐ Austin), BS Earth Science and Secondary Education (Adams State)  UNM – adjunct professor, geology; City of Stevens Point, WI wellhead protection study ‐ lead; Associated Drilling Co. – geologist; National Geographic Paleontological Dig at Hansen’s Bluff – crew leader.  SNL – CASoS Engineering Lead and Distinguished R&D  CASoS Engineering ‐ lead  NISAC ‐ program technical lead  NISAC ‐ DIISA modeling lead  YMP, GCD and NRC projects – probabilistic risk and performance assessments 4

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Welcome, Syllabus, Examples of Complex Systems (and their Failures) Brief Biographical Note on Stephen D. Kleban  BA Computer Science University of California, San Diego  MS Computer Science University of New Mexico  Focus on Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning  Stanford Linear Accelerator Center  Intelligent Beam Line diagnostics  Sandia National Laboratories, 1993 ‐ present  Technical Work – 12 years  Management – 8 years  Healthcare and Public Health  Complex Systems Research Challenge & Complex Systems Institute 5

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Welcome  Division 6000 has Four Capability Portfolio Homerooms which includes  Global Security of WMD  Complex & Intelligent Systems  Intersection between Earth and Engineered Environments  Energy Systems & The Nuclear Fuel Cycle  Course is funded by Complex & Intelligent Systems (C&IS) Capability Portfolio Homeroom  C&IS Homeroom also funding the workshops discussing a Sandia Complex Systems Institute  What we hope you take from this class  Learn where Complex Systems have a role in Sandia’s National Security Mission  Learn where a Complex Systems approach is useful  Networking 6

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Structure of the Course Focus of this session  Fundamentals of Complex Systems ✔  Methods ✔  Modeling Techniques  Approaches to Examining Complex ✔ Systems  Applications  Examples of the use of complex systems ✔ fundamentals to solve problems  Learning how to use complex systems modeling tools *Note: These approaches represent a simplified set of complex systems concepts chosen for the CSYS300 systems lectures. Please see the initial two lectures for additional detail and expanded references. 7

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Syllabus Date Topic Instructor(s) Location Welcome, Syllabus, Overview of Complex Kevin Stamber/Steve Kleban/Theresa March 18, 2014 Systems (and Complex Systems Failures) Brown 856/104 March 20, 2014 System Dynamics Fundamentals Len Malczynski/Asmeret Bier 856/104 March 25, 2014 System Dynamics Applications Len Malczynski/Asmeret Bier 856/104 Agent ‐ Based Modeling Fundamentals Kevin Stamber/Mark Ehlen March 27, 2014 Student Project Overview and Examples Kevin Stamber/Steve Kleban 856/104 April 1, 2014 Agent ‐ Based Modeling Applications Steve Verzi 856/104 Optimization: Overview of Linear April 3, 2014 Programming Jared Gearhart 880/D48A Optimization: Heuristic Methods and April 8, 2014 Applications Nat Brown 856/104 April 10, 2014 (Social) Network Analysis TBD 856/104 System of Systems Modeling Hai Le April 15, 2014 Student Project Selection Kevin Stamber 880/D48A* April 17, 2014 Digital System Analysis Jackson Mayo 856/104 April 22, 2014 Resilience Theory and Application Eric Vugrin 856/104 * Session runs 3 PM to 5 PM MT; all others run 3 PM to 4:30 PM MT. 8

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Syllabus Date Topic Instructor(s) Location April 24, 2014 Social Dynamics Tom Moore 856/104 April 29, 2014 Serious Gaming Fred Oppel 856/104 May 1, 2014 Behavioral Influence Assessment Michael Bernard 856/104 May 6, 2014 BREAK – Prepare for presentations May 8, 2014 BREAK – Prepare for presentations May 13, 2014 BREAK – Prepare for presentations May 15, 2014 BREAK – Prepare for presentations May 20, 2014 Student Presentations Students 880/D48A May 22, 2014 Student Presentations Students 856/104 9

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Class Project  Teams of three, ideally  Take one of the subjects discussed in the class  Apply to a problem in your knowledge space or interest area  Class lecturers will be available to provide assistance  Will present as part of one of three student lecture sessions two weeks after final subject matter  Session will be by random draw  Team identification by 1 April  Project identification by 15 April 10

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS What is a Complex System?  Many (and often varying) components  Dynamic Interaction  Among components  With the “external world”  Composition and decomposition into hierarchies  Self ‐ organization into levels with “common” behavior  From this we can see emergent behavior 11

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Examples of Complex Systems  In reality, rather than asking “What is a Complex System?”, the more appropriate question is “What isn’t a Complex System?”  Communities – People – organ systems – organs – cells – DNA  Infrastructure systems – individual infrastructures – operating elements of infrastructure 12

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Examples of Complex Systems Agriculture & Food Financial Water Services Transportation Chemicals Telecommunications Commercial Healthcare and Facilities Public Health Critical Manufacturing Nuclear Facilities Dams Defense Information Industrial Base Technology Emergency Energy Services Government Facilities 13

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Examples of Complex Systems Basic Electric Power System Basic Electric Power System Production Production Production Transmission Transmission Transmission Distribution Distribution Distribution Ultimate Ultimate Ultimate System System System System System System System System System Customer Customer Customer Generator Generator Generator Transformer Transformer Transformer Transmission Transmission Transmission Substation Substation Substation Distribution Distribution Distribution Lines Lines Lines Transformer Transformer Transformer Lines Lines Lines System Operation 14

CSYS 300 – COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS & APPLICATIONS Examples of Complex Systems Human Consumption Treaties Electric Power Regulations Generation Operating Rules Spillage Storage Irrigation 15