CSU E ve ritt Re al E state Ce nte r Marke t Watc h March 29, 2017 d e live rs b usine ss www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Me trostudy Offic e Conta c ts Joe Hemmelgarn John Covert Todd Tyrrell Tom Hayden Bridget Berry Sr. Regional Director Dir. Bus. Development Senior Consultant Director of Consulting Consultant jcovert@metrostudy.com ttyrrell@metrostudy.com jhemmelgarn@metrostudy.com thayden@metrostudy.com bberry@metrostudy.com 303-229-9160 303-885-5806 720-493-2020 720-883-7475 720-493-2020 Office in the Denver HBA Building: 9033 E. Easter Place, Suite 116 Centennial, CO 80112 (720) 493-2020 Rob Bookhout Alex Ray Keely Maher www.metrostudy.com Sr. Market Analyst Analyst Research Manager aray@metrostudy.com rbookhout@metrostudy.com kmaher@metrostudy.com 720-493-2020 720-493-2020 720-493-2020 www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m 2
T HE ME T ROST UDY DI F F E RE NCE | L OCAL MARKE T F OCUS | NAT IONAL COVE RAGE • # 1 re side ntia l da ta pro vide r • L a rg e st US g e o g ra phic fo o tprint a va ila b le – 890 CBSAs | 2,483 Co untie s • Me tro study surve y ma rke ts – T o p 25 c o nstruc tio n CBSAs – 40,000 a c tive sub divisio ns – 20,000 future sub divisio ns – 3.2 millio n la nd & lo ts – 76% o f US ne w ho me c o nstruc tio n – E xc lusive c o nsume r de mo g ra phic s insig hts • 25 re g io na l o ffic e s; 400 surve yo rs WE DRIVE 200,000 MILES EVERY 90 DAYS TO THE MOON AND BACK EVERY 6 MONTHS. www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m PAGE 3
Ma rke t Informa tion | Compre he nsive , Ac c ura te Sourc e s PUBL IC RE CORD DAT A F UT URE DE VE L OPME NT T rue De ma nd Ac tua l de ma nd T RACKING Cle a nse d & ma tc he d Critic a l pipe line inte l to Sub divisio ns ACT IVE SUBDIVISION E CONOMIC DAT A E ACT IVIT Y NHANCE Pla nning Visua l inspe c tio n A Ma rke t e ntry ARY DAT F ro m g ro und b re a k COMPL E T E to c lo se MARK E T Ac c ura te tre nding D PUBL I NT E L L I GE NCE T PROPRIE INT E GRAT E D SAL E S & T RAF F IC DE MOGRAPHICS IC DAT RE PORT ING VIE W Po pula tio ns L e a ding e dg e Ma rke t tre nds L e a st re lia b le A ONT ARGE T PE RMIT S CONSUME R Ba ro me te r o f future SE GME NT AT ION a c tivity K no w yo ur c usto me r www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Ma rke t Informa tion | T he Me thod Ma tte rs ONL Y visua l inspe c tion provide s the se c ritic a l insig hts Unde rsta nd future ma rke t supply FUTURES K no w future c o mpe titio n I de ntify o ppo rtunitie s Curre nt lo t inve nto ry & ve lo c ity VACANT 12 mo nth b uild ho rizo n Re ma ining life o f c o mpe titive DEVELOPED LOT pro je c ts L o t pro spe c ting T rue supply o f ne w ho me s UNDER T ra c k b uild time s, g a ug e c o mpe tito r e ffic ie nc y CONSTRUCTION Unde r/ o ve r supply indic a to r (w/ finishe d va c a nt) “Ca na ry in c o a l mine ” FINISHED E a rly indic a to r o f o ve rsupply ma rke t VACANT Pre dic t pric e c o nc e ssio ns Sig na ls whe n to pla n ma rke t e xit I nve sto r a c tivity insig ht T rue st, e a rly g a ug e o f de ma nd & po pula tio n g ro wth OCCUPIED Co mmunity he a lth www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Ma rke t Informa tion | T he Me thod Ma tte rs ONL Y visua l inspe c tion provide s the se c ritic a l insig hts VACANT UNDER FINISHED FUTURES OCCUPIED DEVELOPED LOT CONSTRUCTION VACANT Physic a l lo t Sta rte d Co mple te d b ut E • Pipe line o f vide nc e o f future a c tivity inve nto ry inve nto ry b e ing no t o c c upie d c lo sing in Know c a rrie d o n a dva nc e o f b o o ks re c o rde d c lo se Unde rsta nd Curre nt lo t T “Ca na ry in c o a l T rue supply o f rue st, e a rly future ma rke t inve nto ry & ne w ho me s mine ” g a ug e o f T E supply ve lo c ity ra c k b uild a rly indic a to r de ma nd & Use K 12 mo nth b uild no w future time s, g a ug e o f o ve rsupply po pula tio n c o mpe titio n ho rizo n c o mpe tito r ma rke t g ro wth I Re ma ining life Pre dic t pric e Co mmunity de ntify e ffic ie nc y Unde r/ o ve r o ppo rtunitie s o f c o mpe titive c o nc e ssio ns he a lth Sig na ls whe n to pro je c ts supply indic a to r L o t pro spe c ting (w/ finishe d pla n ma rke t e xit I va c a nt) nve sto r a c tivity www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m insig ht
T o Sta rt Us Off… Sta rts in 2016 we re up 12% a nd c lo sing s we re up 17%. But 4Q sta rts • a c tua lly de c line d fro m a ye a r a g o … Sta rte d o ve r 4,400 ho me s in 2016 fo r the first time sinc e 2006. • Va c a nt de ve lo pe d lo ts (VDL ), inc re a se d 13% fro m 3Q, b ut is a t the sa me • le ve l a s 2015 a nd supply dro ppe d to 15.6 mo nths, b e lo w e q uilib rium. We ld Co unty is g ro wing a t a muc h fa ste r ra te tha n L a rime r Co unty due • to lo t a va ila b ility, a ffo rda b ility a nd dive rse sub ma rke ts Windso r is e me rg ing a s the to p sub ma rke t in No rthe rn Co lo ra do • Mo st o f the sa me c ha lle ng e s we sa w in 2016 re ma in in 2017 a nd will • like ly b e mo re inte nsifie d… www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m 7
Northe rn CO Job Growth Ma rke t E xpe rie nc e d Ye a r-Ove r-Ye a r I nc re a se o f +7,500 jo b s = 2.9% Gro wth Ra te 15.0 275 10.0 250 Annual Formations (1,000s) Labor Force (1,000s) 5.0 0.0 225 -5.0 Larimer MSA Formations Weld MSA Formations 200 Labor Force -10.0 -15.0 175 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Northe rn Colora do E mplo yme nt Size b y Se c to r 30% Larimer % of Total Employment Weld % of Total Employment 25% 20% % of Total Employed 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Northe rn Colora do Une mplo yme nt Ra te - Ja nua ry 12 10 Unemployment Rate 8 6 4 Ft. Collins Unemployment rate 2 Greeley Unemployment rate 0 Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
New Home Activity Metrostudy 4Q16 Survey d e live rs b usine ss www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Colora do F ront Ra ng e Ne w Home Ac tivity Annua l Sta rts b y Co unty 3,500 +22% 3,000 +16% 2,500 +38% 4Q15 +6% +34% Annual Starts 4Q16 2,000 +5% +20% +20% 1,500 +4% 1,000 +46% 500 -47% 0 Source: Metrostudy www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Colora do F ront Ra ng e Ne w Home Ac tivity Annua l Sta rts b y Co unty 2005-2016 Ma rke t Sha re T re nd 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% % Market Share 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Metrostudy www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Pub lic Builde r Ma rke t Sha re 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Metrostudy www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Northe rn Colora do Ma rke t Sta rts & Closing s All Ho using T ype s (SF D, T H, Co ndo ) 954 starts in 4q16 -2% decrease v. 4q15 (968) Annual Starts for 4q16 were 4,441 units +12% increase v. 4q15 annual starts (3,973) 1,074 Closings in 4q16 +18% increase v. 4q15 (911) Source: Metrostudy Annual Closings for 4q16 were 4,149 units +17% increase v. 4q15 annual closings (3,539) www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m PAGE 15
Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Annua l Sta rts T re nd (All Pro duc t) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,441 Annual Starts 4,000 4,149 3,000 Annual Closings 2,000 1,000 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 Source: Metrostudy www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Ne w Ho me Sta rts b y Qua rte r (All Pro duc t) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 Source: Metrostudy www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m
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