Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres Towns Mean Business - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres “Towns Mean Business” 18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by: Scottish Retail Consortium

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres “Ideal Retail Mix” December 2016 Keith Hargest Hargest Planning Ltd

Shopping as an activity… ‘ “I have heard,” said Defoe, still obviously shocked by the practice, “that some ladies, and these too, persons of good note, have taken their coaches and spent a whole afternoon in Ludgate Street or Covent Garden, only to divert themselves in going from one mercers shop to another, to look upon their fine silks and to rattle and banter the shopkeepers...”’ From Daniel Defoe “The Complete English Tradesman” 1726 (quoted by Lewis Mumford (The City in History) Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Long Term Factors • Resale Price Maintenance Act 1964 • Increased accessibility and reduce cost of travel (time and money) • Internet based retail Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Numbers of Retail Units – Small Centres Cross Party Group Towns & Town Centres December 2016

Numbers of Retail Units – Medium Town Centres Cross Party Group Towns & Town Centres December 2016

Numbers of Retail Units – Large Town Centres Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Changes to the Retail Mix • Total numbers of retail goods and retail service units is broadly constant • Comparison goods shops declined in numbers • Retail service units have grown significantly • Vacancies have, in long term, remained broadly constant Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Largest City & Town Centres • Glasgow: decline retail goods units but growth in services • Edinburgh: from 1985 decline in retail goods units but growth in sales area; growth in services • Aberdeen from 2003: retail goods shops marginal decline, growth in net sales; growth in service units; vacancies constant • Dundee: decline in retail goods floorspace (esp comparison); total numbers of retail goods and service units remained same since 2005 Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Retail Expenditure Per Capita - Constant and Actual Prices Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Growth of Internet Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Forecast Growth in Expenditure – Total Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Implications • Continuation of trends • Uncertainties – internet growth; Brexit etc • Continued loss of retail goods shops and floorspace from small/medium town centres • Continued growth of retail services – become principal commercial activity in small- medium town centres • Larger centres: market concentration here, less units, but more floorspace and turnover Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Retail Offer – Small/Medium Town Centres • P rice – difficult to compete • Q uality – potential to be sensitive to local market • R ange – difficult to compete • S ervice – greatest potential for small/medium Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres December 2016

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres “Towns Mean Business” 18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by: Scottish Retail Consortium

Small Businesses Make Towns Laura McKelvie, Policy and Public Affairs

GET IN TOUCH T 0141 221 0775 E laura.mckelvie@fsb.org.uk W fsb.org.uk/scot Presentation Title. A presentation by Fiona Smith for [enter name/company]

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres “Towns Mean Business” 18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by: Scottish Retail Consortium

Retail, High Streets, and Transformational Change Presentation to the Cross Party Group on Town Centres Ewan MacDonald-Russell – SRC Head of Policy & External Affairs

Scottish Retail Consortium Representing 255 brands including:

What’s Happening in Scottish Retail? SCOTLAND 3M ROLLING AVERAGE GROWTH • Sales: 4.0% OVER FIVE YEARS • Oct 1.6% 3.0% • 3 Month: -1.0 % % change year-on year 2.0% • Vacancy Rate: • Oct 9.2 % 1.0% • July 7.5 % 0.0% • October Footfall: -1.0% • 3 Month: 0.3 % • 12 Month: -1.4 % -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Sales LFL sales

Monitor SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies % change year-on-year -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Scotland Footfall Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 UK Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Source: SRC/Springboard Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16

Monitor SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies Vacancy Rate (%) 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 BRC-Springboard Vacancy Rates Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Scotland Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 UK Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Source: SRC/Springboard Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

What’s happening to Shop Prices? Shop Price index inflation (Y-o-y changes in prices)  Shop prices have fallen for 6.0% 43 months. % change year-on-year  November SPI: -1.7 % 4.0%  Driven by low commodity 2.0% prices and fierce 0.0% competition.  Underlying pressures could -2.0% cause challenges. -4.0% Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 All Items Food Non-food Source: BRC-Nielsen Shop Prices Index

How are people shopping? Online non-food sales • The shift to shopping online continues apace now around 22%, • Internet sales totalled £43bn in 2015. 12 month average • The challenge facing retailers is in investing to growth is 10.8%. create a seamless multichannel proposition Online food sales has • On average, people are taking fewer shopping proved more challenging, trips but are prepared to travel further to make it so overall online a day out. penetration is around • The immediacy of online shopping and the rapid 15%. advancement in supply chain technology means products are easily available at short notice. Online shopping is • That has led to a decreasing tendency among increasingly being done shoppers to buy well in advance or to plan for through mobile phones, new season or events rather than desktop. More than 50% of hits on retailers’ websites are from mobile phones.

What effect is public policy having? • Customers spending is crucial for retailers: Therefore costs to customers are a priority. • Government Policy is increasing the cost of people and property: • Business Rates and the Large Business Supplement • Apprenticeship Levy • Costs of Employment • Future Issues • Brexit • Productivity and Innovation

Final Thoughts • Retail Industry is going through enormous change • Trading conditions are very competitive • Economic challenges ahead in 2017 • High Streets will change significantly as a consequence • Public policy needs to evolve in response to these pressures

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres “Towns Mean Business” 18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by: Scottish Retail Consortium

Shopping Centres: Working Together with Communities and Town Centres Alexander Nicoll Corporate Responsibility Director Intu Properties Plc

Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres “Towns Mean Business” 18:00 – 19:30 Wednesday, 7th December 2016 Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5 CPG Secretariat Refreshments supported by: Scottish Retail Consortium