Crenshaw Corridor Strategic Plan (Draft) Economic Findings November 15, 2007 Presented to The Crenshaw Corridor Stakeholder Task Force
Table of Contents I. Introduction II. Understanding of the Assignment III. Socio-Demographic Overview IV. Real Estate Market Overview V. Supportable Development Estimates VI. Strategic Issues VII. Discussion Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 2
Introduction - ERA Team Amitabh Barthakur, AICP Principal 10990 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1500 Los Angeles, California 90024 310.477.9585 FAX: 310.478.1950 e-mail: Amitabh.Barthakur@econres.com www.econres.com David A. Wilcox, FAICP Senior Vice President 10990 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1500 Los Angeles, California 90024 310.477.9585 FAX: 310.478.1950 e-mail: David.Wilcox@econres.com www.econres.com Judith Taylor Associate 10990 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1500 Los Angeles, California 90024 310.477.9585 FAX: 310.478.1950 e-mail: Judy.Taylor@econres.com www.econres.com Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 3
Understanding of the Assignment � Creation of a Development Vision and Strategic Plan for the Crenshaw Corridor � Study area from I-10 to King Blvd. – About 1.65 Miles � Project partners Include CRA/LA; � MTA; � Council Dist. 10; � Community Stakeholders � � Two RDA Projects Mid City � Crenshaw Corridor � � Obvious ‘Anchors’ Include West Angeles Church of God in Christ � Cathedral and Campus Crenshaw Plaza Shopping Center � Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 4
Understanding of the Assignment � Project Goals 1. Create a regional destination – a pedestrian friendly district 2. Leverages the new light rail extension for transit oriented development 3. Generates employment and supports the local economy Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 5
Understanding of the Assignment � Project Opportunities Exposition Light Rail Transit Station, � (operating in 2010) Participation/Interest of community � institutions holding a number of parcels along the corridor, including • The West Angeles Church of God in Christ and • Ward EDC New light rail station with TOD � opportunities Participation/Interest of private land � owners Proven success of redevelopment � projects Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 6
Analysis Zone � Upper Crenshaw District The Crenshaw Corridor will Capture � Demand for Various Land Uses from a Larger Local and Regional Market However, the Corridor Itself is a � Fairly Narrow Analysis Area in the Context of Regional Market Demand Analysis For Analysis purposes ERA Defined � the Analysis Area as Census Tracts Within a 1-Mile ring of the Corridor Center This Area Also Represents Primary � Resident Market Base Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 7
Demographic Profile (2005) Upper Crenshaw City of Los Los Angeles District Angeles County Population 68,333 3,879,964 9,998,371 Households 25,769 1,322,153 3,247,077 Persons/HH 2.65 2.93 3.08 Source: ESRI 2005, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 8
Demographic Profile (2005) – Age Cohorts The analysis area contains a higher proportion population aged under 14 years and over 60 years compared to regional averages 140% 130% 120% Crenshaw as % of City of LA 110% Crenshaw as % of LA County 100% 90% 80% 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 80 years 80 to 85 years Under 5 years 85 years and over Source: ESRI 2005, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 9
Demographic Profile (2005) – Racial Distribution The African Americans comprise 56 percent of total population the analysis area compared to 10.4 percent in the City of L.A. and 9.2 percent in L.A. County 70.0% 56.0% 60.0% 46.1% 50.0% 44.6% 40.0% Crenshaw District City of Los Angeles 27.9% Los Angeles County 25.7% 30.0% 22.8% 20.0% 12.4% 11.7% 10.4% 10.4% 9.2% 10.0% 5.8% 5.6% 4.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% White African American American Asian Asian/Pacific Some other race Two or more Indian/Alaska Islander alone races Native Source: ESRI 2005, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 10
Demographic Profile (2005) – Hispanic Population The analysis area contains a lower share of Hispanic population compared to the City of L.A. and L.A. County 60.0% 50.6% 48.7% 50.0% 40.0% 36.9% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Crenshaw District City of Los Angeles Los Angeles County Source: ESRI 2005, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 11
Demographic Profile (2005) – Household Income The analysis area contains a significantly higher share of lower households earning under $35,000 annually compared to the City of L.A. and L.A. County 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% Crenshaw as % of City of LA 100% Crenshaw as % of LA County 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Less than $20,000 $20,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,000 $100,000 or more Source: ESRI 2005, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 12
Demographic Profile (2005) – Housing Tenure 64 percent of the housing units in the analysis area are renter-occupied compared to only 48 percent renter occupied units countywide. 7 percent of total units are vacant 100% 4% 5% 7% 90% 80% 48% 70% 57% 64% 60% Vacant 50% Renter-occupied 40% Owner-occupied 30% 48% 20% 38% 29% 10% 0% Crenshaw District City of Los Angeles Los Angeles County Source: ESRI 2005, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 13
Demographic Profile – Project Annual Growth 2005-2030 SCAG’s long term projections for the analysis area show higher growth rates for population, dwelling units and employment compared to the City of L.A. 1.00% 0.98% 0.96% 0.94% 0.92% Crenshaw District 0.90% City of Los Angeles 0.88% Los Angeles County 0.86% 0.84% 0.82% 0.80% 0.78% Population Households Employment Source: ESRI 2005, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 14
Corridor and District Business Volumes Crenshaw Corridor Study Area Vicinity No. of Approx. Revenue Tax Year Establishments (Mill) 2004 356 $148 2005 362 $153 2006 346 $135 Source: City of Los Angeles, Office of Finance, Division Division Estab Establishments ishments Emp Employees oyees Revenue ($ M evenue ($ Mill ll.) .) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 21 102 4 Construction 120 553 108 Fin. Services, Real Estate, Insurance 193 1,304 264 Manufacturing 84 773 73 Mining 0 0 0 Retail Trade 576 4,937 506 Services 903 7,402 640 Transportation, Comm., & Utilities 65 809 64 Wholesale Trade 66 591 106 Tot Total 2,028 28 16, 16,471 471 1,765 65 Source: Claritas 2007, Economics Research Associates Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 15
Largest Employer Groups (2007) Largest Employer Groups Special Trade Contractors Apparel & Accessory Stores Real Estate Food Stores Miscellaneous Retail General Merchandise Stores Personal Services Health Services Social Services Business Services Eating & Drinking Places Educational Services - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Jobs Source: Claritas, ERA Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 16
Office Market Profile Avg. Annual Delivered Period Buildings Total RBA Vacancy Rate RBA Avg. FS Rent/s.f./Yr. 2007 YTD 66 992,905 9.4% 0 $2.56 2006 66 992,905 2.0% 0 $1.73 2005 66 992,905 3.6% 0 $1.52 2004 66 992,905 7.1% 0 $1.27 2003 66 992,905 8.2% 0 $1.38 2002 66 992,905 10.3% 0 $1.43 2001 66 992,905 11.1% 0 $1.59 2000 66 992,905 17.3% 0 $1.57 1999 66 992,905 10.8% 0 $1.30 1998 66 992,905 10.1% 0 $1.19 1997 66 992,905 7.7% 0 $1.26 � Total RBA in the 3 Zip Area (90016, 90018 and 90008) is 990k s.f. while the 1-mile ring contains 370k s.f. � No new space added during the last decade � Most of the office inventory is Class B and Class C space with lower vacancies in Class C buildings � West Angeles EDC is adding 45k s.f. of new space Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 17
Retail Market Profile Direct Total Vacant Total Vacant Total Net Average Period # Bldgs Total RBA SF % Absorption Rate NNN 2007 YTD 148 2,683,611 65,566 2.4% (32,695) $2.69 2006 146 2,677,974 71,406 2.7% 94,918 $3.28 2005 144 2,611,811 73,130 2.8% 18,516 $2.15 2004 143 2,601,810 61,934 2.4% (10,105) 2003 141 2,588,763 55,700 2.2% 19,912 2002 141 2,584,485 30,279 1.2% (58,100) 2001 140 2,571,295 1,500 0.1% 25,409 2000 136 2,480,908 3,125 0.1% 174,553 1999 131 2,375,036 4,875 0.2% 4,724 1998 129 2,369,432 1,500 0.1% 55,106 1997 126 2,315,227 1,625 0.1% 0 Source: CoStar, Economics Research Associates � Total RBA in the 3 Zip Area (90016, 90018 and 90008) is 2.7 million s.f. � Total RBA in the 1-mile ring is 1.9 million s.f. (1.2 million s.f. excluding the mall) � Only 368k s.f. of retail space has been added in the 3 zip code area since 1997. � The $18 Million Coliseum Center is one of the newest developments � Several other retail/mixed use projects are planned including a major refurbishment of the Mall Crenshaw Corridor Strategy November 15, 2007 Slide 18
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