COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to August 2020 Working Draft - Key Slides 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 Economic Family Refugees 1
Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs) : Economic, Family and Refugees • TR to Permanent Resident transition • Asylum Claimants by O ffi ce Type • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP) : International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) : caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) • Asylum Claimants • Citizenship • Visitor Visas 2
August 2020 Highlights UPDATE • August immigration numbers continued to drop for permanent residents compared to July with a slight increase in temporary workers • PRs: Admissions continued to decline from 13,650 in July to 11,315 in August, driven by the decline in Economic. August Year-over-year decline: Economic 70.8%, Family 48.6%, Refugees 60% • Applications: Increase from 10,380 in May to 11,957 in June. June year-over-year decrease 77.2% NEEDS UPDATE • Provincial Nominee Program: Decrease from 3,050 in July to 1,969 in August. August year-over-year decrease: 77.7% • TR to PRs transition: Further decrease from 2,950 in July to 1,705 in August (some double counting). August year-over-year decrease of 86.9% (i.e., those already in Canada) • Temporary Residents: • TRs/IMP: Slight increase from 11,475 in July to 12,565 in August. August Year-over-year decline: Agreements 38.4%, Canadian Interests 49.8% • TRs/TFWP: Slight decline from 8,060 in July compared to 7,390 in August. August year-over-year decline: Caregivers 53.4%, Other LMIA 25.2%. Agriculture had a significant increase of 73.8%, perhaps reflecting a later start this year • Web “Get a work permit”: From 69,931 in August to 65,397 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decline: 64.5% • Students: Sharp increase from 13,455 in July to 40,130 in August (peak month). However, August year-over-year decrease: 64.5% • Applications: Stable from 3,352 in May to 3,286 in June. June Year-over-year decrease: 91.6% • Web “Get a study permit”: From 67,292 in August to 59,474 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year increase: 12.5% • Asylum Claimants: Increase from 885 in July to 1,030 in August (about 75% inland). August year-over-year decrease: 83.7% • Settlement Services: Decline from 112,380 in April to 101,415 in May. Year-over-year decrease 9.8 percent • Web “Find immigrant services hear you”: From 13,216 in August to 6,007 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decrease: 57.6% • Citizenship: Increase from virtually none in May (53) to 1,656 in June. June Year-over-year decrease: 92.0%.(2019 monthly average was about 20,000) NEEDS UPDATE • Web “Apply for citizenship”: From 39,479 in August to 41,263 in September (outside Canada). September 2020-2018 increase: 39.3% • Visitor Visas: Complete shutdown. China authorizations declined faster and sharper NEEDS UPDATE 3
Permanent Residents 4
PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-20 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 60,000 45,000 30,000 15,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 5
Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-20 Economic Family Refugees 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 6
Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-20 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 100% 75% 50% 25% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 7
2,250 4,500 6,750 9,000 2018-1 Admissions: Provincial Nominee Program— 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2018-20 8 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7
Admissions: PRs Total, Provincial Nominee Program Year to year comparison (monthly)—2018-20 PRs Total PNP 90% 67.5% 64.7% 57.3% 45.6% 45% 43.2% 43.2% 38.4% 36.8% 32.7% 28.1% 27.1% 26.1% 25.4% 24.7% 22.5% 18.3% 14.8% 14.3% 13.5% 9.5% 0% -1.6% -4.1% -6.6% -12.2% -22.5% -18.7% -20.9% -21.1% -29.4% -29.7% -30.9% -32.4% -32.7% -36.2% -45% -44.2% -50.2% -61.4% -67.5% -62.7% -64.2% -66.8% -71.4% -77.7% -90% -84.6% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 2020-6 2020-7 2020-8 9
Admissions: PRs Canada Total Year to Year Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter 0% -22.5% -45% -48.6% -52% -60% -67.5% -70.8% -77.9% -81.6% -90% Economic Family Refugees August 2020 April-June 10
Admissions: PNP Provinces Year-over-year Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year 7.7% 8% -19% -15.7% -24.5% -46% -52.8% -60.5% -73% -70.7% -71.2% -71.8% -76.5% -80.7% -87.5% -89.3% -100% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC August 2020 Last Quarter 11
Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison (August 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year 0% -25% -36.1% -42.5% -50% -51.4% -55.1% -58.2% -58.6% -64.5% -65.7% -65.8% -66.4% -66.8% -75% -72.8% -72.8% -72.9% -75.8% -76.1% -76.8% -77.1% -85.3% -89.5% -100% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK August 2020 April-June 12
Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents By Program—2018-20 IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 14,000 10,500 7,000 3,500 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 13
Admissions by Program: TRs to PRs Year-over-year Comparison by Province—August 2020, Last Quarter Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year 0% -4.9% -12.8% -21.4% -25% -24.7% -50% -51.6% -53.9% -65.6% -71.3% -75% -82.6% -85% -85% -88% -95% -96.6% -100% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC August 2020 April-June 14
Admissions: TRs to PRs Year to Year Comparison by Program—August 2020, Last quarter 0% -11.7% -15.6% -25% -36.1% -50% -47.4% -75% -79.4% -87.3% -88.5% -89.7% -100% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP August 2020 April-June 15
Asylum Claimants: Office Type 2018-20 Airport Border Inland 7,000 5,250 3,500 1,750 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 16
Asylum Claimants: Office Type Year-over-year Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter 0% -25% -42.7% -50% -75% -78.1% -88.7% -92.5% -94.4% -100% -98.6% Airport Border Inland August 2020 April-June 17
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year—August 2020, Last Quarter 9.7% 10% -17.5% -37.1% -45% -48.1% -53.2% -68.6% -72.5% -72.3% -75.6% -76.6% -78.9% -79.4% -79.6% -81.1% -81.7% -81.8% -83.1% -84.9% -89.8% -93.8% -93.9% -95% -100% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA August 2020 April-June 18
Temporary Residents 19
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-20 Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 20
IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 21
TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 22
-52.5% -17.5% 17.5% 52.5% -70% -35% 35% 70% 0% IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 Year to Year Comparison (Monthly) 2019-5 2019-6 IMP 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 23 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 TFWP 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 2020-6 2020-7 2020-8
Temporary Residents by Program Canada Year to Year Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter 80% 73.8% 60% 40% 20% 0% -5.5% -20% -25.2% -34.2% -40% -38.4% -47.4% -49.8% -53.4% -60% -58% -70.3% -80% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA August 2020 April-June 24
IMP by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison (August 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year 0% -25% -21.5% -38.2% -40% -42% -50% -48% -52% -56.1% -56.4% -58.2% -61.2% -63.4% -68.6% -75% -74.6% -77% -78.3% -78.8% -86.1% -90.6% -92.2% -95.5% -100% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan August 2020 April-June 25
TFWP by Citizenship Year to Year Comparison (August 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year 140% 127.6% 105% 96.3% 70% 57.8% 35% 13.5% 8% 0% -9.1% -14.9% -35% -32% -34.4% -39.5% -40% -47.4% -55.9% -59.8% -61.2% -61.5% -70% -73.9% -74.6% -80.6% -87% -105% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France August 2020 April-June 26
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