Contents 1. Global Megatrends 2. From the MDGs to the SDGs 3. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sustainable Development : A Focus on the MENA Region FEMISE Annual Conference Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group Mahmoud Mohieldin Brussels, Belgium Senior Vice President 13 June, 2019 World Bank Group

Contents 1. Global Megatrends 2. From the MDGs to the SDGs 3. Policy & Regional Developments in MENA 4. Achieving the SDGs 5. WBG Strategy for MENA 2

1. Global Megatrends Demographic Market volatility Transitions and commodity cycles Urbanization Fragility and violence Opportunities and Challenges Climate Change Technological changes Shifts in the global Renewed debate economy about globalization 3

2. Looking back: MDG progress Comparing Arab Countries to Developing Countries MDG 1.1 - 12 0 0 0 2 3 Arab Countries Extreme Poverty 71 11 7 2 27 27 Developing Countries nourishment 1 0 0 1 12 3 MDG 1.9 Arab Countries Under- Developing Countries 35 8 4 13 52 33 Completion MDG 2.1 - Arab Countries 1 4 1 3 4 3 Primary 40 12 11 17 40 Developing Countries MDG 3.1 - Education 6 0 0 2 7 Arab Countries Gender Parity 67 10 7 11 28 25 Developing Countries MDG 4.1 - Mortality Arab Countries 5 1 3 3 5 Under-5 Developing Countries 38 18 16 37 34 25 MDG 4.2 - Mortality Arab Countries 0 0 5 3 9 2 Infant 6 9 23 28 77 22 Developing Countries MDG 5.1 - Mortality 1 0 1 4 11 0 Maternal Arab Countries 15 3 11 20 88 2 Developing Countries MDG 7.8 - Improved Arab Countries 6 0 1 2 7 0 Water Developing Countries 67 5 2 12 40 2 MDG 7.9 - Sanitation Improved 7 1 0 2 5 0 Arab Countries 36 7 7 14 58 8 Developing Countries Target Met Sufficient Progress (by 2015) Insufficient Progress Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data 4

2. The Millennium Development Goals to the Sustainable Development Goals MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals 8 17 Targets 21 169 Indicators 60 ~230 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental 5 Scope Developing Countries Universal

2. From the MDGs to the SDGs PROMOTE QUALITY DATA (2000-2015) IDENTIFY INTERRELATEDNESS OF GOALS AT ONSET IMPROVE POLICY COORDINATION INCREASE CROSS-INSTITUTIONAL COLLABORATION ENSURE STRONG GOVERNMENT INVOLVMENT (2016-2030) INCREASE EFFICIENT ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES LOCALIZE IMPLEMENTATION 6

2. The Sustainable Development Goals Source: International Monetary Fund, 2018 7

3. Leveraging the Potential of Disruptive Changes Requires a Comprehensive Policy Framework Invest in resilience Invest in human Invest in infrastructure (incl. social capital protection) Enablers Finance Implementation Data Achieving the SDGs 8

3. MENA Regional Developments: Poverty Between 1990 – 2015, countries in the Middle East and North Africa reduced the proportion of people living on less that US$3.20 from 27 percent to 16 percent . 9

3. MENA Regional Developments: Inequality Overall, news on boosting shared prosperity is positive, however, the region has experienced slowdowns… 10

3. MENA Regional Developments: Growth Growth in the region is projected to decrease to 1.3% in 2019 and to pick up to about 3% in 2020-21 Change from January 2019 2012-16 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2019 2020 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.7 -0.3 -0.1 World Advanced economies 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.5 -0.3 -0.1 EMDEs 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.6 -0.3 0.0 6.9 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.9 -0.1 -0.1 East Asia and Pacific 2.4 4.1 3.1 1.6 2.7 -0.7 0.0 Europe and Central Asia 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.5 -0.4 -0.2 Latin America and the Caribbean 3.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 3.2 -0.6 0.5 Middle East and North Africa 6.7 6.7 7.0 6.9 7.0 -0.2 -0.1 South Asia 3.7 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.3 -0.5 -0.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 11 Source: World Bank. Note: e and f refer to estimates and forecasts, respectively.

3. Current Growth Rates are Not Enough Global poverty rate projections to 2030 12 Source: World Bank, 2019.

4. Invest in Human Capital "Human capital" – the potential of individuals – is going to be the most important long- term investment any country can make for its people’s future, prosperity and quality of life The Human Capital Project Three main objectives: 1. Build demand for more and better investments in people 2. Help countries strengthen their human capital strategies and investments for rapid improvements in outcomes 3. Improve how we measure human capital 13

4. Invest in Human Capital: MENA Snapshot Rank Economy Lower Value Upper Bound bound 47 Bahrain 0.65 0.67 0.68 49 United Arab 0.64 0.66 0.67 Emirates 54 Oman 0.61 0.62 0.63 Launched in 2018, the Human Capital Index 60 Qatar 0.60 0.61 0.63 assesses the building blocks of human capital: 73 Saudi Arabia 0.57 0.58 0.60 1. Survival – Will kids born today survive to school 77 Kuwait 0.56 0.58 0.59 age? 79 Jordan 0.54 0.56 0.58 2. School – How much school will they complete and 82 West Bank & Gaza 0.54 0.55 0.56 how much will they learn? 86 Lebanon 0.52 0.54 0.55 3. Health – Will kids leave school in good health and 93 Algeria 0.51 0.52 0.53 be ready for further learning and/or work? 96 Tunisia 0.50 0.51 0.52 98 Morocco 0.49 0.50 0.51 104 Egypt 0.47 0.49 0.50 129 Iraq 0.38 0.40 0.41 139 Sudan 0.37 0.38 0.39 145 Yemen 0.35 0.37 0.38 14

4. Invest in Resilience Resilience is the ability to manage the wide range of shocks and stresses which may occur: • natural • Technological, or • socioeconomic Examples of investments include: • Expansion of social protection coverage while giving priority to the poorest people • Strengthening of all aspects of climate and disaster resilient development, including coordinating institutions, risk identification and reduction, preparedness, financial and social protection, and resilient reconstruction 15

4. Invest in Infrastructure Infrastructure Outlook: Africa Infrastructure Outlook: Asia 4E+11 2.3E+12 3.5E+11 2.1E+12 3E+11 1.9E+12 2.5E+11 1.7E+12 2E+11 1.5E+11 1.5E+12 1E+11 1.3E+12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Current trends Investment need Current trends Investment need Investment need inc. SDGs Investment need inc. SDGs 16 Source: Global Infrastructure Hub, 2018

4. Invest in Digital Infrastructure In low income countries, only 12 percent of people use the internet, but usage is growing. Features of digital infrastructure in MENA 1. High prices, low speed: limited access to broadband internet 2. Good backbone networks, lack of investment in local access; monopolies in international access 3. Affordability constraints deepen the digital divide across regions and people 4. Highly concentrated markets 5. Challenges with storage capacity 6. Lack of competition in international and data communications 7. Outdated business model 8. Lack of investment in broadband 17

4. What will the SDGs require? Data, finance and implementation EFFECTIVE BETTER ADEQUATE DATA IMPLEMENTATION FINANCING Domestic resource Ensure availability of Provide integrated mobilization; leveraging household budget solutions and work private sector; surveys in 78 poorest across addressing needs of countries every three sectors/ministries regional and global years; data revolution; public goods statistical capacity building 18

4. The SDGs are interlinked Data is critical to understanding those relationships Japan as an example: Japan’s goals are interlinked to SDG 1 19

4. Data availability is a universal challenge Seventy-eight of 169 SDG targets describe potentially assessable outcomes for Canada 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Quantified SDG target Canadian national target Proxy target Not able to assess Source: “Counting who gets Left Behind” Brookings report, 2018 20

4. Financing the SDGs To meet the investment needs of the SDGs, the global community needs a paradigm shift - move the discussion from “billions” in ODA to the “trillions” in investments of all kinds Achieving the SDGs will require the best possible use of each available grant dollar , beginning with ODA from governments and philanthropy, remittances, South-South flows, other ODA, and FDI To reach the needed trillions, additional flows must come from two main pillars: public domestic resources and private sector finance 21

4. Finance will Need to Come from Multiple Sources Foreign Direct Investment (net inflows as ODA and FDI to the Arab World % of GDP) 1.2E+11 6 1E+11 5 8E+10 4 6E+10 3 4E+10 2 2E+10 0 1 0 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Net official development assistance and official aid received (current US$) Arab World World Developing Countries 22