Conference Remarks on Food security: International Experience and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SDPI Seventeenth Sustainable Development Conference Remarks on Food security: International Experience and Cooperation by Sohail J. Malik PhD December 9, 2014

Food Security is composed of FOUR elements Production + Income Stocks Availability Imports-exports Food Security Prices Poverty Accessibility Income Consumption Water, sanitation and Utilization Nutritional status Hygiene (WASH) Nutritional status Variability in availability, Sustainability Resilience accessibility, utilization

IFPRI The Global Hunger Index GHI=(PUN+CUW+C M)/3 PUN=Under- nutrition CUW=Child underweight CM=Child mortality

Undernourishment Trends: Progress varies across regions Source: FAO (2014)

Total Number of Undernourished people declined. However, its share in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa Increased between 1990-92 to 2012-14 Oceania Caucasus and Central Asia Northern Africa Western Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South-Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Southern Asia Developed regions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2012 – 14 1990 – 92 Source: FAO (2014)

PAKISTAN IS BORDERLINE ALARMING IN TERMS OF THE GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX 25 19.1 19.1 20 17.8 16.4 15.1 15 GHI 10 5 0 Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

IN PAKISTAN

Share of food expenditure in total consumption expenditure has increased by 5 percentage points during 2007/08 – 2010/11 59 60 55 55 % households 49 50 44 45 40 40 36 35 30 2007-08 2010-11 Botton quintile Highest quintile All households Source: Report of HIES 2007-08, Table 15, available at http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/social_statistics/publications/hies07_08/table15.pdf Report of HIES 2010-11, Table 15, available at http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/pslm/publications/hies10_11/tables/table15.pdf

On Average more than 70% of food expenditure is spent on wheat, oils, sugars and dairy (2010-11) 90 80 % share in food expenditure 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Energy dense food Pulses Fruits & vegs Other Overall Non-poor Poor Source: HIES 2010-11

Wheat is the major source of energy 60 % SHARE IN TOTAL CALORIES 50 40 30 20 10 0 Wheat Oils Dairy Sugars Meats Overall Non-Poor Poor Source: HIES 2010-11

Sharp Increase in the Price of Wheat since 2007-08 35 30 25 20 Rs/KG 15 10 5 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Source: GOP (2014), Economic Survey 2013-14

Gap between Net Availability and Consumption of Wheat 30000 25000 20000 000 tonnes 15000 10000 5000 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Production Consumption Import Export Net availability Source: GOP (2013), Agriculture Statistics for production, imports and exports, FAOSTAT for consumption

Decreasing ability to access: Kilograms of Wheat Flour that one Day’s Wages can Buy declining 35 Skilled Isamabad Skilled Karachi Kilograms of Flour per daily wage (Kgs) 30 Skilled Lahore Unskilled Islamabad 25 Unskilled Karachi Unskilled Lahore 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Food Security has several dimensions • Food Insecurity threatens overall national security • Household – increasing number of food insecure and vulnerable households • Intra-household – Gender Disparities make half the population more vulnerable and at risk • Markets thin and not functioning • Regional Dimensions – three provinces are food deficit and within these some regions much more so than others • International Dimensions – Afghanistan, the Central Asian Republics and India

The Pakistan Situation • High and increasing levels of poverty and malnutrition • High prevalence of malnutrition in the country : • Poverty - Lack of resources at the household level to maintain the minimum daily allowance of essential nutrients; and • Lack of awareness about balanced diet and maintaining good health • Focus of previous research on estimating numbers only • Food Security not fully understood or integrated into policies • Little work on understanding the linkages between food security, consumption behavior and nutritional outcomes and variations across socio-economic groups and regions • Need re-prioritization and evaluation of any previous policies and programs

The Pakistan Situation – the salient aspects • Limited Dietary Diversity : Cereals, fats, sugars, and dairy products are the main sources of calories and macro-nutrients • The consumption of micronutrient rich foods is very low (vegetables and fruits) • Average calorie consumption is lower than the recommended level of 2350 and unbalanced in terms of micro-nutrients • Wheat is the main source of calories, carbohydrate and fiber • Current policy focused on availability of wheat tonnage through production and import. Little diversification away from four major crops. • Lesser focus on accessibility, sustainability and safety . • Wheat consumption is price inelastic (implications for dietary diversity and household expenditures on education, health care, etc.?)

Wheat is central to Food Security and poses the Classic Food Policy Dilemma in Pakistan • Wheat accounts for over 55% of total caloric consumption • Poor households spend 24 percent of food expenditure on wheat • 26 percent of total households produce wheat and 97 percent households consume wheat . • But among the wheat producers only 21.6 percent are the net sellers • An increase in wheat price benefits only the net sellers of wheat

“Food policy dilemma” - promoting high prices for producers or low prices for consumers? • Market interventions are not costless – and can result in substantial government subsidies and efficiency losses • There is a mismatch between objectives (producer and consumer price levels and stability, availability of grain for distribution programs, minimum stock levels, etc.) and policy instruments (procurement and sales prices, levels of government imports, etc.)

Political Economy of Food Security: Diverse Objectives of Stakeholders • Producers : higher producer prices • Millers : low issue price and regular supplies • Consumers : cheap food and assured supplies • Government : minimize expenditure and inflation • Provincial Food Departments: procurement targets • Regional considerations : surplus vs. deficit provinces • Donors : Limit wheat subsidies and increase role of private sector

Estimates indicate that Increase in Wheat Price has possible adverse implications for other essential Human Development Indicators • An increase in wheat price increases the food costs of the majority of the population • An increase in the price of wheat may not result in substitution with other food items • However, substitution with non-food items is possible • A substitution with health and education may worsen the already low human development indicators and may have adverse effect on already high levels of poverty in the country • Serious implications especially for current nutritional status and productivity of future generation • A reduction in the purchasing power of the wage earners can aggravate this situation further.

Fome Zero – A Multidimensional Program for ensuring the right of access to basic Food • Interventions ranging from: • The direct • financial aid to the poorest families (with the Bolsa Família card) • To the diverse and indirect (such as): • creating water cisterns in Brazil's semi-arid areas, • low-cost restaurants, • educating people about healthy eating habits • distributing vitamins and iron supplement • supporting subsistence family farming and • giving access to microcredit.

Evaluative Evidence Indicates that Fome Zero in Brazil has contributed to • improved education outcomes, and impacts on children’s growth, food consumption, and diet quality • 80% of the Bolsa Familia benefits go to families in poverty (making under half the minimum wage per capita), thus most of the benefits go to the poor. • responsible for about 20% of the drop in inequality in Brazil since 2001 • significant reduction in child labor exploitation among children benefited by the Bolsa Família program

Pakistan is committed to ensuring Food Security • The setting up of the Ministry of Food Security and Agricultural Research is an important first step • The Benazir Income Support Program and NADRA have enabled a widely available targeting mechanism • The Cooperation with Brazil’s Fome Hunger Program is an important step forward. • Pakistan needs its OWN mechanism of informed decision making and of prioritizing its needs to understand what it needs to adapt from what others are doing and to learn as Pakistan develops its Food Security • International Cooperation is welcome

Thank you so much