Comprehensive Plan Update Public Meeting #1 January 22-23, 2020 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MOUNTRAIL COUNTY, ND Comprehensive Plan Update Public Meeting #1 – January 22-23, 2020

Who we are Scott Harmstead, AICP | Planner, Senior Associate sharmstead@srfconsulting.com 701.354.2405 David Sweeney, AICP | Planner dsweeney@srfconsulting.com 701.893.7426

Where is Mountrail County in 2020? • Geography • Natural Resources • Energy • Agriculture • Growth Trends and Forecasts • Demographics • Housing • Land Use and Zoning • Transportation

Energy Job Service North Dakota – Labor Market Information Center

Energy Oil Production Trends Monthly Oil Production, 2009-2019 (Top 4 Counties) 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 Barrels per Month 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Month/Year Dunn McKenzie Mountrail Williams North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources

Energy

Energy Oil Industry Employment Forecast • DMR forecasts 15,000 oil industry jobs in Mountrail County by 2025 • Gradual transition from drilling jobs (purple) to production jobs (green) has implications for planning. (e.g., long- term housing needs) North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources: Oil & Gas Update. November 2018

Agriculture 2016 Harvested Acres (Percentage) 2.1% 2.4% 7.2% 15.6% 25.8% 46.9% Dry Edible Peas Canola Spring Wheat Hay Sunflower Oil Barley

Growth and Development Historical Population Change Population Year Incorporated County County Balance Percent Balance Communities* 1960 10,077 5,545 4,532 45.0% 1970 8,437 4,945 3,492 41.4% 1980 7679 4,546 3,133 40.8% 1990 7,021 4,064 2,957 42.1% 2000 6,631 3,982 2,649 40.0% 2010 7,673 4,708 2,965 38.6% 2018 10,218 6,885 3,333 32.6% *New Town, Palermo, Parshall, Plaza, Ross, Stanley, White Earth • The Western ND Oil boom has reversed decades of population decline • Most growth is focused in incorporated communities (New Town, Parshall, Stanley) • Unincorporated areas have grown by ~400 since 2010 and by ~700 since 2000.

Growth and Development Student Enrollment New Town 1 Stanley 2 Parshall 3 1,200 938 989 1,015 1,000 880 798 749 749 735 749 694 800 675 679 664 691 713 550 601 616 600 472 411 400 273 270 279 266 281 314 258 271 285 277 200 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 New Town 1: + 266 students in 10 years Stanley 2: + 302 students in 10 years Parshall 3: +4 students in 10 years

Demographics – Age Breakdown Mountrail County Population Pyramid, 2018 85 and over 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 Mountrail County is 60 to 64 primed for more 55 to 59 Age Group 50 to 54 population growth 45 to 49 40 to 44 and increased 35 to 39 student enrollment. 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Share of Total Male or Female Male Female American Community Survey 2018 Estimates

Growth and Development – Projections Mountrail County Population Projections 21,000 19,648 19,000 17,390 17,367 17,000 15,587 Population 15,000 15,086 13,177 13,000 13,784 12,364 11,000 11,551 9,000 7,673 7,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year Expected Migration Scenario Low Migration Scenario High Migration Scenario North Dakota Census Office Projections (2016)

Housing Housing Distribution, Core Oil-Producing Counties Williams County Alternative housing types are limited. A McKenzie County greater diversity of housing options may be needed as the County grows. Dunn County Mountrail County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Share of Total Housing Stock 1 unit, attached 1-unit, detached 2-4 units 5 to 9 units 10 to 19 units 20 units or more Mobile home Boat, RV, van, etc. American Community Survey 2013-2017 Estimates

Where and how should growth occur? Alternative 1

Where and how should growth occur? Alternative 2

Where and how should growth occur? What lot residential sizes are appropriate in rural, unincorporated areas of the county? 1-2 acres 3-4 acres ~10 acres ~5 acres

Goals and Objectives Example Goal: Conserve and sustain productive farmland Example Objectives: 1. Limit farmland fragmentation 2. Protect farmland from conflicting uses 3. Minimize soil loss/degradation Example policies and strategies: Zoning and subdivision regs, fiscal incentives, education, coordination with state and regional partners, etc.

Goals and Objectives Development What are the primary planning issues? (hot topics) Hot Topics What is our desired future and what specific aims do we want to Goals and Objectives achieve? (goals and objectives) How do we implement the plan? Policies (Zoning and related policies)

Draft Goals LAND USE 1. Protect the County’s rural character and agricultural heritage. 2. Facilitate orderly and efficient development. 3. Conserve and sustain productive farm and ranch lands. 4. Protect and enhance the quality of natural resources and recreation areas. 5. Promote a positive visual perception of the County and active property maintenance. 6. Protect the quality and supply of the County’s water resources 7. Support the operations of the United States military and preserve the integrity of military facilities and operations in Mountrail County. 8. Encourage ongoing communication and cooperation between different governmental entities within Mountrail County.

Draft Goals TRANSPORTATION 1. Develop and maintain a transportation system that promotes safety for all users. 2. Develop a transportation system that is sustainable, maintains a state of good repair, and explores low-cost/high-benefit solutions to satisfy the public’s transportation priorities. 3. Effectively and efficiently use available transportation funding. 4. Maximize intergovernmental cooperation and coordination to improve the transportation system.

Draft Goals INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES 1. Promote efficient extensions, connections, upgrades, and maintenance for water, gas, electric, and other infrastructure to serve development. 2. Development is served by rural water providers to the greatest extent feasible. 3. Development is served by adequate fire protection, law enforcement, schools, emergency, and non-emergency medical services. 4. Collaborate with State agencies to ensure proper wastewater disposal.

Draft Goals ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1. County core industries – agriculture and energy – continue to drive economic growth and development. 2. Align economic development goals with land use and infrastructure planning. 3. Actively support regional economic development efforts. 4. Promote sufficient permanent housing for a growing labor force. 5. Promote regional linkages between suppliers, producers, and end consumers. 6. Encourage the expansion of technical jobs and match workforce training to suit these jobs. 7. Encourage the expansion and enhancement of outdoor recreation opportunities. 8. Promote increased access to high-speed broadband and wireless communication.