Comprehensive Assessment Results and Envisaged Capital Actions Plan November 2015
Important notice No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by NBG as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. NBG is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. In addition, certain of these data come from NBG’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and experience of m anagement in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on them. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward- looking statements, including statements relating to NBG’s strategy, its additional capital needs, asset values, the application of state aid and capital plan and the likelihood or impact of any adverse or stress scenario. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward- looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect NBG’s view only as of the date hereof. This presentation has been provided to you solely for your information and background. This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as: (i) an offer, solicitation or invitation to subscribe for, sell or issue, underwrite or otherwise acquire any securities or financial instruments, nor shall it, or the fact of its communication, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into any contract or commitment whatsoever with respect to such securities or financial instruments; or (ii) any form of financial opinion, recommendation or investment advice with respect to any securities or financial instruments. This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or subscribe for securities in the United States. Any securities referenced in the announcement have not been registered, and will not be registered, under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or under the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States and may not be offered or sold in the United States unless they are registered under the Securities Act or pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to the registration requirements of the Securities Act. There will be no public offering of securities in the United States. Any failure to comply with this instruction may constitute a violation of United States and/or other national securities laws. 1
Comprehensive capital plan with strong business proposition Strategy to fully address all capital shortfalls identified by the 2015 Comprehensive Assessment Strong brand Deeply r recognition Swift repayment of CoCos through the intended sale of Finansbank Settle any debate regarding capital quality Deploy capital and liquidity strength to support the Greek economy Geared to deliver RoTE in excess of cost of capital with low execution risk Deeply rooted customer Deeply r relationships Well positioned for potential future capital distributions 2
Capital plan credibly addresses capital needs 1 The Baseline stress scenario identified € 1.6 bn capital shortfall that NBG needs to cover with capital • actions to avoid resolution The Adverse stress scenario identified an additional contingent capital shortfall of € 3.0 bn that can be Capital Requirements • covered with State participation, if capital actions do not suffice 2 NBG has already announced a Liability Management Exercise (‘LME’) and in short order will announce the • terms of a € 1.6 bn Share Capital Increase (‘SCI’) NBG intends to more than cover the capital needs derived in the baseline scenario with proceeds from – the SCI and the LME HFSF common equity to cover the residual adverse shortfall will further strengthen NBG’s capital position • Capital expected to be generated from the intended sale of Finansbank is planned to repay State Aid in • Capital Plan the form of HFSF’s Convertible Securities (CoCos) received in the interim to cover the residual portion of the adverse scenario The disposal of Finansbank could include the reversal of the capital surcharge related to international – operations NBG’s Capital Plan is expected to be sufficient to cover the bank’s identified shortfalls under the baseline and adverse scenarios Note: Identified capital shortfalls under baseline and adverse scenario take into account AQR adjustments 3
Comprehensive assessment result: manageable ‘incurred’ as well as 1 ‘contingent’ capital need AQR AQR + baseline scenario impact AQR + adverse scenario impact AQR impact: € 2.3 bn (2) + € 3 bn additional shortfall Baseline scenario (incl. capital surcharge capital shortfall: 12,1% (1) € 1.6 bn related to international 11,6% (to cover 2015) operations of € 1 bn) 9.5% 2,7% Threshold Adverse min. CET 1 (1) (1) 8,1% 8,1% requirement of (3.5)% 8.0% vs 5.5% in 6,8% 2014 assessment (1.4)% Baseline min. CET 1 requirement of 9.5% vs 8% in 2014 assessment Total Adverse scenario capital shortfall: € 4.6 bn (1) (1) (1) CET1 2Q15 Baseline CET1 Baseline CET1 1Q15 CET1 2Q15 AQR impact CET1 2Q15 post AQR Stress Test Baseline capital Pre-AQR post-AQR shortfall Note: (1) Based on preliminary data, which differs from final results published on Oct 31, 2015 (2) AQR losses gives rise to DTCs which are not included in the SSM calculations, but will be recognised in NBG’s capital position 4
1 AQR summary As part of the AQR exercise, private sector domestic loan portfolios have been reviewed, with gross • balances in excess of € 43 bn − Credit file review (‘CFR’) of 864 files (incl. 173 for Large Corporates, 284 for Large SMEs and 313 for mortgages) Overall the exercise resulted in additional € 2.3 bn regulatory provisions driven by: • − € 1.0 bn for mortgages, primarily due to more conservative haircuts on collateral valuation − € 1.0 bn for Large SMEs, of which the majority stemmed from i) reclassification of performing exposures (‘PE’) into new NPEs due to stricter definitions; and ii) higher collateral haircuts − € 0.3 bn for Large Corporates, of which one third arose from performing loans (IBNR (1) ) Limited impact on Large Corporates portfolio both from reclassification and additional provisioning, • attests to NBG’s business model with respect to this portfolio and the relative resilience of the Greek large corporates The assessment of the consumer portfolio (including credit cards), the small business portfolios, as • well as the shipping portfolio did not identify the need for any additional provisions Note: (1) Incurred but not reported 5
Baseline scenario severely stressed domestic net income 1 Identified Baseline capital need to cover 2015 shortfall Severe stress in domestic net income (1) combined with… …Reduced impact from capital actions contained in restructuring plan (3) € bn Cumulative 2H 2015 - 2017 Significantly reduced recognised capital from minorities • of Finansbank due to regulatory filters (0.7) (2) (1.5) Reduced impact from sale of NBG insurance • Domestic operations Group net income No credit for disposal of Astir Palace • Total impact from capital actions: @ € 1.0bn Driven by depressed PPI and elevated credit losses Severe frontloaded impact on domestic earnings mainly from • Stress on PPI from trading losses (c. 50% of cumulative in 2H – 2015) and very conservative assumptions on both loan and vs. € 2.0bn in deposit spreads restructuring plan (3) Domestic credit losses maintained at elevated levels (cost of – risk (‘ CoR ’) c. 240bps) with c. 30% cumulative credit losses booked in 2H 2015 Commentary based on NBG’s internal estimates Note: (1) NBG estimates (2) Excluding € 1.1bn of goodwill impairment (does not impact capital) (3) Approved on 23 July 2014 6
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