Community conversation about the future for our County Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007
Why vision? Successful regional communities create a shared vision which helps groups and people strive towards a common future. Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007
Community Visioning The process we are following……. May 10 – Scenario Planning – Part 1 • Explore global and regional trends and internal community dynamics. • Identify key drivers potentially shaping the local region. May 31 – Scenario Planning – Part 2 • Define four plausible future directions for the region. • Develop detailed narratives of the implications of each of the four possible directions. Summer 2007 – Community Conversations • Community-wide conversations – identify the preferred future. Fall 2007 – Identify Actions • Identify key strategic actions needed to move towards the preferred scenario. Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007
Scenario Planning • Draws together over 100 different groups representing the ‘voices’ of our community • Representation based on community capitals framework • Included range of ages, multiple perspectives and experiences Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007
Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007
Stout Typographical Society Our Workforce Development Our Current Sponsors Dunn County University of Wisconsin-Stout Xcel Energy Stout Ale House And several other community supporters Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007
What have we been learning about the future? Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007
Forces impacting the world – what are the emerging global drivers….. • Energy consumption is increasing • Wealth in the US being distributed to fewer people • Dramatic increase in wealth and workforce size in China and India – and expected to continue to grow • Decline in US economic power in the world • Climate change emerging as major global issue • Media power shifting to internet and away from traditional media Summary – deliberations at 2007 World Economic Forum
Forces impacting the region – what are the emerging regional drivers ….. • Twin cities sprawl – increasing population • Loss of young people – aging population, lack of suitable jobs • Energy – rising costs; potential for renewable energy in region • Loss and degradation of natural resources – water and farm land Summary – deliberations at May 10 Scenario Planning Workshop
Dynamic at play inside our community…. • We are weak at encouraging new leaders to step forward. • We have strong traditional organizations – which are the ‘backbone’ of our community. • We have strong community pride; but are not very inclusive of new people and ideas. • We are weak at supporting local businesses. • We are not very self reliant and don’t look to the long term future. Summary – deliberations at May 10 Scenario Planning Workshop
Dunn County – score against top ten attributes of successful communities Strong Weak Attribute % % Evidence of strong community pride and inclusive 71 29 culture 32 68 Invest in the future—built to last 35 65 Participatory approach to community decision making 54 46 Creatively build new economic opportunities 26 74 Support local businesses 2 98 Deliberate transition of power to new leaders 54 46 Strong belief in and support for education 96 4 Strong presence of traditional institutions 57 43 Willingness to seek help from the outside 12 88 Communities are self-reliant
What are the key drivers that will shape the future of Dunn County? Summary – deliberations at May 10 Scenario Planning Workshop
Key drivers shaping the future of Dunn County (as determined by workshop participants) 12. Attractability and retainability 1. New leadership developed to young people 2. Cost and availability of energy 13. Availability of skilled workforce 3. Understanding human 14. Infrastructure development diversity 15. Equity across community – 4. Education – utilizes equal access to benefits technology 16. Cost and availability of 5. Protect water resources healthcare 6. Affordable housing 17. Sustainability of agriculture 7. Public transportation 18. Changing technology 8. Twin City sprawl 19. Responsive, responsible, and 9. Building on arts, history, cohesive policy and political culture environment 10. Land-use planning 20. Entrepreneurial economic 11. Strength of Downtown environment Summary deliberations – Dunn County Scenario Planning Workshop
Mapping the key drivers 7.00 6.50 Equity Across Community Political and policy environment Cost and Availability of Health Care Public Transportation 6.00 Attracting and Retaining Young Sustainability of Agriculture People Understanding Human Diversity Uncertainty 5.50 Cost/Available Energy Protect Water Resources Affordable Housing - personal visa Strength of Downtown Entrepreneurial economic environment 5.00 New Leadership Developed Building Arts, Cultural History 4.50 Availability of a Skilled Workforce Twin Cities Sprawl Land Use Policies Infrastructure Development 4.00 Changing Technology Education Utilizing Technology 3.50 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 Importance
Scenario shaping ‘clusters’ of drivers Entrepreneurial and responsive community environment • New leadership developed • Political and policy environment • Attracting and retaining young people • Availability of a skilled workforce • Entrepreneurial economic environment Providing and protecting physical resources • Cost and available of energy • Cost and availability of Health Care • Protect water resources • Land-use policies • Sustainability of agriculture Key clusters of drivers – Dunn County Scenario Planning Workshop
Scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters increase Providing and protecting physical resources Scenario B Scenario A Entrepreneurial and responsive community environment decrease increase Scenario D Scenario C decrease
Developing the four plausible scenarios • The Scenario Planning workshop participants explored how the future might unfold under each scenario. • In their deliberations, they considered the ‘triple bottom line’ of social, economic; and environment impacts. • They looked out to 2010, 2020 and 2030 to see how the future might look. • They looked at how the key sets of drivers will shape the future. Developing the four plausible scenarios
Four plausible scenarios for the future increase Providing and protecting physical resources ‘Vintage ‘Destination Village’ Dunn’ Entrepreneurial and responsive community environment decrease increase ‘Boom to ‘Snooze; Gloom’ you lose!’ decrease
Scenario A - ‘Vintage Village’ Predictable Characteristics • Environment in good health and protected. • Attractive for elderly and tourists, but lack of opportunity for youth. • Business attracted by physical resources but lack of local skilled workforce. • Less smaller local entrepreneurial businesses, but healthcare sector and tourism industries vibrant. • Stagnation and conservative leadership – less open and tolerant community; resists new ideas and change. • More people commute to work; and less community support for education system. Scenario Summary – Vintage Village
Scenario B - ‘Destination Dunn’ Predictable Characteristics • Engaged citizens and strong leadership with participatory community decision making. • Open and welcoming community that celebrates diversity and creativity. • Strong focus on sustainable development and renewable energy businesses. • Network of public infrastructure and transport. • Development of energy efficient commuter systems and recreation trails. • Strong collaborative approach – public /private partnerships common and effective. • Good health care and workforce development. Scenario Summary – Destination Dunn
Scenario C - ‘Boom and Gloom’ Predictable Characteristics • Starts with strong economic growth and good well paying jobs – local entrepreneurs do well. • Unplanned rapid growth begins to stress public infrastructure and public funding. • Environmental degradation begins to occur with more pollution and loss of farming land and less open public space. • Intensive development along transportation corridor with urban sprawl into countryside. • Large companies begin to dominate industry sectors, and area starts to become less attractive for new businesses, families and young people. Scenario Summary – Boom to Gloom
Scenario D - ‘Snooze; you lose!’ Predictable Characteristics • Poor decisions see environment degraded and sold off for any development. • Lack of public funding and decay of infrastructure – roads, health, education all suffer. • Pollution increases and attractiveness declines • Increased community fragmentation – crime, drug use, social unrest increases. • Community apathy and widening of gap between the ‘haves’ and ‘have not's’. • Increase in industry such as sand mining, coal fired power stations and polluting industries. • Agriculture declines and water is polluted. Scenario Summary – Snooze; you lose!
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