DoD Aircraft Acquisition and Commercial UAS Market Evolution For TTC’s UAS East Symposium Arlington, VA. November 7-8, 2017 Ron Stearns, Director, Business Development, Robotics and Unmanned Systems
DoN Aircraft Acquisition 2016-2022 (Airframes) 66 Situational Dominance MQ-4C 51 Situational Understanding MQ-8C Situational Awareness 18 RQ-21 *systems Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY 2018 budget documents
USAF, USA Aircraft Acquisition 2016-2022 (airframes) MQ-9 & MQ-1C deliveries to end in FY 2018. These systems likely to be in service for 20+ years. Sustainment becomes key. Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY 2018 budget documents
RDT&E Programs of Note 2016-22 ($ million) Small Unit Remote Scouting System, USMC: Scalable reconnaissance - RQ-12 Wasp, RQ-11 Raven, RQ-20 Puma and various NANO/VTOL UAS UAS Payloads, USMC: Rapid sensor integration to address changing threats, new technologies and capability gaps. USMC MUX MALE Group 5 UAV: Trade studies for the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF), Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Expeditionary (MUX) with Vertical/Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (V/STOVL) capability. The MUX efforts will inform a future program of record.
USN: QRC and MQ-25 Stingray ($ million) Elements of the MQ-25 program were previously funded under the UCLASS System Program Element, which became Carrier Based Aerial Refueling System (CBARS). It is now referred to as Unmanned Carrier Aviation (UCA)/MQ-25, with Initial Operational Capability to the fleet by the mid-2020s. Source: Gansler, UMD 2012
Commercial UAS Market Evolution
Transitions, Time Compression, Part 107 From thousands of commercial UAVs to potentially millions – how can systems scale to accommodate? • Regulatory • Production Moves toward Risk- 5,309 Section 333s May, 2014: FAA based certification. approved as of June • accepts petitions for First six Section 333 Equipage Night operations under 8,2016). commercial UAS exemptions are issued • Section 333. Information flow exemption under on Sept. 25, 2014 to six Blanket exemptions for Expedited, online • Section 333 of FAA television and film Command and control test sites and 333 in commercial Modernization and companies. increasing effect. AGL • registration. Part 107 Operator certifications Reform Act of 2012 from 400-800 feet released June 21, 2016 • Commercial service providers • Human-machine interface From inertia to normalized access in two years • Airworthiness
Part 107: Early Takeaways “Progress in science is not linear, but rather exhibits periods of peaceful interludes BVLOS will punctuated by Gold Rush, but Imagery, data and Commercial UAV usher in intellectually violent who are the business analytics size, weight and viable revolutions.” early winners? driving CONOPS reliability must commercial and revenues evolve Group 3 UAS -Thomas Kuhn Increasing: Small businesses, Greater: altitude, Section 333 and mapping use, Hyper localized controller radius, Part 107 are data reselling, > $1mm in operations over building the applicability revenues people safety case (paraphrased from “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, 1962).
FAA UAS ID Committee This is a critical component of see/sense and avoid. https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=88289&omni Rss=news_updatesAoc&cid=101_N_U Some questions are: The FAA established the UAS ID Rulemaking • Spectrum – How will this information be Committee, whose recommendations will help to build the framework for ID and transmitted and ingested? tracking and potentially contribute to • Trade Space - Group 1 & 2 platforms have SWaP operations over people not involved in the restrictions, and any self-identification equipage commercial operation and operations will need to account for this beyond line of sight. • Data Security – Will there be an encryption There are 74 organizations represented on requirement for data and information security? the panel, with 45 white papers submitted • Exemptions - How far “down” to push this for evaluation intended to result in requirement – 1&2 lb. systems may not be a submitted hierarchy of needs within existing possibility capabilities and technologies. • Who will manage the program(s)? • What will the formats and standards look like?
Presidential UAS Integration Pilot Program https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/10/25/presidential- Reactions: memorandum-secretary-transportation Oct. 25, 2017 Will it pit state and local authorities against the FAA, and run counter to existing FAA Within 90 days the Secretary of Transportation and the FARs? Administrator of the FAA shall establish a UAS Integration Pilot Program to test the further integration of UAS into the NAS in a How will this impact future UAS system select number of State, local, and tribal jurisdictions. certifications? (b) The objectives of the Program shall be to: Can it create areas where CONOPS for (i) test and evaluate various models of State, local, and tribal delivery and other commercial applications government involvement in the development and enforcement are technically validated? of Federal regulations for UAS operations; Does it provide a lever for greater (ii) encourage UAS owners and operators to develop and safely “corporate” control of the NAS? test new and innovative UAS concepts of operations; and Can it allow for expedited commercial (iii) inform the development of future Federal guidelines and operations beyond Part 107? regulatory decisions on UAS operations nationwide. No help on UAS enforcement.
Commercial UAS Ecosystem Snapshot Analyzed 647 organizations with active pursuit/participation in UAS markets and assigned to categories based upon stated core competency Data Processing: video, imagery and analysis RF/Comms: wireless, nav., detection, antennas, satcomms EO/IR: manufacture of all modalities Services: insurance, training, measurement, legal, field support, engineering, test, consultants Embedded Products: GPS, PCB, computers, data storage Electronics: MEMS, cabling, circuits, solar, avionics, IMU, switches, converters, connectors, motion control Components: bearings, power, batteries, fasteners, servos, hydraulics, tooling, chutes, cases, ground support
Present Conditions and The Way Ahead Investment and 10s of Millions $: 3DR, Parrot, GoPro, Yuneec Kespry, Measure, Precision Hawk Events Drone as a Service (DaaS) Consumer to Drone Life: 50 Hours 100 Hours 300 Hours 1000 Hours + Commercial Product/Market Very Small Companies Limited Industrial Use Proof of Commercial Concepts Maturity Section 333 Part 107 Part 107 Waivers Market Focus Hardware Software (Daas)Service 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Evolving Participants, Business Models • Measure – Drone as a Service – new funding wave from VC and Private Equity • Trumbull Unmanned – Oil & Gas, Drone-Enabled services provider • Price Waterhouse Coopers – advisor to industrial users, conduit to drone use • AeroVironment – Commercial Agriculture Service with internally-developed drone • Trimble Geospatial – Took UX-5 UAV in house, Service for Precision Ag. • Intel – Processing power, autonomous operations • Altavian – Deployed services teams, mapping intensive • Qualcomm - Cellular connectivity to enable autonomy • AECOM – Industrial advisors and project management Evolving Models Truly Disruptive • Airbus Ventures – Vahana, an autonomous personal-transportation vehicle • Project Wing – Autonomous delivery via drone • Amazon Prime Air – Delivery, consumer goods • Uber – Aggressive build, test and flight plans for a VTOL Uber model
Market Gap – Commercial Opportunity Canon DSLR = 3-4 lbs. $2000 for body, Desired Commercial EO/IR Sensor Properties: lens, gantry assembly 1. ITAR Free – commercially-available, worldwide Humidity, salinity, 2. Stabilized particulates are no- 3. Environmentally robust: day-night and fly deal breakers weather-tolerant 4. Independently powered Weight wreaks havoc on small UAS 5. Less than 1.5 lbs. for entire system capabilities. 6. Much lower power draw 7. Store onboard or stream imagery >10 grams can equal tens of 8. Modular, hot-swappable payload(s) minutes of flight time on a Risk 9. > 5-inch diameter gimbal Class 2 fixed-wing UAV Current small camera mounting, approx. Performance penalties are worse $1300 for VTOL UAVs. With maximum endurance of roughly 30 minutes
Risk Classes and Commercial Best Fit • VTOL UAV capabilities in the 40-60 Risk Class Aircraft Weight Example Aircraft NAS Access lb. range are surpassed every 18-24 months. RC -6 15,000 lbs. and up 2020+ • Service providers are purchasing UAVs in twos to avoid fleet RC-5 5,000-15,000 lbs. 2020+ obsolescence • VTOL UAVs > 40 lbs. will become a RC-4 1,500-5,000 lbs. 2020+ commoditized design space • Barriers to entry for RC 1-2 rotary- 2019-2020 wing platforms are few, but the RC-3 55-1,500 lbs. Exemptions ability to scale production and spiral in capabilities is unproven RC-2 6-55 lbs. Part 107 • To do so will require a warm line, thorough IP sharing, real-time field feedback RC-1 1-6 lbs. Part 107
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