Commercial UAS: Access, Ecosystem and Market Evolution For TTC’s UAS West Symposium San Diego, CA. March 7-8, 2017 Ron Stearns, Director, Business Development, Robotics and Unmanned Systems
DoD Aircraft Acquisition through the FYDP With the inclusion of zero-hour rotary-wing programs (e.g. AH-64E, AH-1W to AH-1Z) and target drones (BQM-167, QF-16) there will be 3,037 DoD aircraft deliveries from FY 2015-2021. Rotary-wing aircraft are the major FYDP acquisition driver, owed in large part to operations tempo and airlift demand in United States Central Command Aircraft by Service Branch, 2015-2021 Fixed and Rotary Wing, 2015-2021 Aircraft by Category, 2015-2021 Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY 2017 budget documents
Transitions, Time Compression, Part 107 From thousands of commercial UAVs to potentially millions – how can systems scale to accommodate? Moves toward Risk- • Regulatory 5,309 Section 333s May, 2014: FAA based certification. approved as of June accepts petitions for First six Section 333 • Production Night operations under 8,2016). commercial UAS exemptions are issued Section 333. • Equipage exemption under on Sept. 25, 2014 to six Blanket exemptions for Expedited, online Section 333 of FAA television and film test sites and 333 in • Information flow commercial Modernization and companies. increasing effect. AGL registration. Part 107 • Command and control Reform Act of 2012 from 400-800 feet released June 21, 2016 • Operator certifications • Commercial service providers From inertia to normalized access in two years • Human-machine interface • Airworthiness
Part 107: Early Takeaways “Progress in science is not linear, but rather exhibits periods of peaceful interludes BVLOS will punctuated by Gold Rush, but Imagery, data and Commercial UAV usher in intellectually violent who are the business analytics size, weight and viable revolutions.” early winners? driving CONOPS reliability must commercial and revenues evolve Group 3 UAS -Thomas Kuhn Increasing: Small businesses, Greater: altitude, Section 333 and mapping use, Hyper localized controller radius, Part 107 are data reselling, > $1mm in operations over building the applicability revenues people safety case (paraphrased from “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, 1962).
Drone Advisory Committee: Paths Forward Developments of note from the DAC’s Jan. 31, 2017 meeting in Reno, NV “This Federal Advisory committee was formed to provide an open venue for the FAA and key decision-makers supporting the safe introduction of UAS into the NAS. Members on the Committee work in partnership with the FAA to identify and propose actions to the FAA on how best to facilitate the resolution of issues affecting the efficiency and safety of integrating UAS into the NAS.” 700,000 Registrants in year one of the FAA’s Online Drone DAC commercially-important activity: Registry • Operations over people not commercially FAA Drone Registrants registered as commercial 42,000 involved and BLOS ops. (e.g. Pathfinder) users • Changes to the waiver process in work, to 35,000 Applicants for the Part 107 Pilot Knowledge enable access beyond Part 107 Exam • Subcommittees working to establish minimum 17,000 Have passed the Part 107 Pilot Knowledge Exam aircraft equipage, moving away from consumer derivatives to commercial-grade UAS 29,000 Number of remote pilots in U.S. with 6,000 • Needs for aggregated commercial safety data exist to build the commercial UAS safety case in process • Subcommittees want to look beyond smalls, and scale these corollaries to larger UAVs
Commercial UAS Ecosystem Snapshot Analyzed 647 organizations with active pursuit/participation in UAS markets and assigned to categories based upon stated core competency Data Processing: video, imagery and analysis RF/Comms: wireless, nav., detection, antennas, satcomms EO/IR: manufacture of all modalities Services: insurance, training, measurement, legal, field support, engineering, test, consultants Embedded Products: GPS, PCB, computers, data storage Electronics: MEMS, cabling, circuits, solar, avionics, IMU, switches, converters, connectors, motion control Components: bearings, power, batteries, fasteners, servos, hydraulics, tooling, chutes, cases, ground support
Timelines and Present Conditions Investment and Initial: Tens of Millions: 3DR, Parrot, GoPro Kespry, Measure (Daas) Events Consumer to Drone Life: 50 Hours 100 Hours 300 Hours 1000 Hours + Commercial Product/Market Very Small Companies Limited Industrial Use Proof of Commercial Concepts Maturity Market Focals Hardware Software (Daas)Service 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Evolving Participants, Business Models • Measure – Drone as a Service – new funding wave from VC and Private Equity Trumbull Unmanned – Oil & Gas, Drone-Enabled services provider • • Price Waterhouse Coopers – advisor to emerging industrial users, conduit to introductions • AeroVironment – Commercial Ag.- DaaS is standing up with internally-developed drone • Trimble Geospatial – Took UX-5 UAV in house, DaaS for Precision Ag. • Altavian – Deployed services teams, mapping intensive • AECOM – Industrial advisors and project management Evolving Models Truly Disruptive • Airbus Ventures – Vahana = flying “Uber” vehicle • Project Wing – Looking to vertically integrate Amazon Prime Air – Delivery, consumer goods •
Market Gap – Commercial Opportunity Canon DSLR = 3-4 lbs. $2000 for body, Desired Commercial EO/IR Sensor Properties: lens, gantry assembly 1. ITAR Free – commercially-available, worldwide Humidity, salinity, 2. Stabilized particulates are no- 3. Environmentally robust: day-night and fly deal breakers weather-tolerant 4. Independently powered Weight wreaks havoc on small UAS 5. Less than 1.5 lbs. for entire system capabilities. 6. Much lower power draw 7. Store onboard or stream imagery >10 grams can equal tens of 8. Modular, hot-swappable payload(s) minutes of flight time on a Risk 9. > 5-inch diameter gimbal Class 2 fixed-wing UAV Current small camera mounting, approx. Performance penalties are worse $1300 for VTOL UAVs. With maximum endurance of roughly 30 minutes
Curre nt Syste ms a nd Co sts FLIRview Pro SUAS starts at DJI Inspire T600 with thermal imager CloudCap (UTC Aerospace M1-D PTZ UAV Infrared $2,000 Size: 2.48" × 1.75" x $12,000 Systems) TASE 150 Camera 1.75“ Weight: 3.25-4 oz Aftermarket for $8000 List price: $9,995 1.98 lbs – 4.5” diameter 4.5” diameter ITAR Restricted > 2 lbs. AeroVironment’s i23 gimbal The Xenmuse (DJI) thermal camera on DoD’s RQ-11B Raven starts (FLIR) retails as a standalone for $6,900 at $30,000
Risk Classes and Commercial Best Fit • VTOL UAV capabilities in the 40- Risk Class Aircraft Weight Example Aircraft NAS Access 60 lb. range are surpassed every 18-24 months. RC -6 15,000 lbs. and up 2020+ • Service providers are purchasing UAVs in twos to avoid fleet RC-5 5,000-15,000 lbs. 2020+ obsolescence • VTOL UAVs > 40 lbs. will RC-4 1,500-5,000 lbs. 2020+ become a commoditized design space 2019-2020 • Barriers to entry for RC 1-2 RC-3 55-1,500 lbs. Exemptions rotary-wing platforms are few, but the ability to scale production and spiral in capabilities is unproven RC-2 6-55 lbs. Part 107 • To do so will require a warm line, thorough IP sharing, real-time RC-1 1-6 lbs. Part 107 field feedback
Commercial Markets: Data Needs Aggregate needs, determine asset utilization, preposition assets for rapid response
Major Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Corridors stretch for up to 800 miles. There are programmed collections for vegetation encroachment, subsidence and clearances. In some cases these datasets must be collected twice annually. There are emergency needs during brownouts or weather-related damage to the distribution infrastructure. An ISO can lose millions in days if it cannot locate and repair. The added costs come from having to purchase power from outside networks. Even with a crewed Helicopter and an observer dedicated and on call 24/7 there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to fly. A UAV could do the dangerous work in remote areas to isolate unexpected outages, damage and/or hot spots.
Oil a nd Ga s: Ma jo r T ra nsmissio n I nfra struc ture De nsity Map of major natural gas and oil pipelines in the U.S. Hazardous liquid lines are in red, gas transmission lines in blue Concentration in Texas, Oklahoma and Gulf states will help to define UAS CONOPS as well as industry and political partnerships This represents a sophisticated, moneyed end-user set. UAS Requirements are understood and waiting for expanded BLoS airspace access Source: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
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