Climate Change Adaptation: An Australian Perspective Professor Tim - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Adaptation: An Australian Perspective Professor Tim Smith Director, Sustainability Research Centre NZCCRI Seminar Series, Victoria University of Wellington, 13 December 2011

Inter-generational equity Water Biodiversity Consumption Globalisation Population Poverty Waste Pollution Intra-generational equity

“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it” Antoine De Saint-Exupery Saint-Exupery, A de 1952, The Wisdom of the Sands , Hollis & Carter, London (UK Edition).

Context for climate change adaptation • Complexity, uncertainty and high decision stakes leading to changes in: – The science-policy-community interface – Research approaches

Climate change: what we know • Hotter • Sea level rise • More extreme events: – More intense storms – More intense floods – More intense storm surge

Is it really that bad? Australia is a coastal nation • 85% of Australia’s population reside within 50km of the coastline • up to 247 600 existing residential buildings will be at risk from sea inundation by 2100 under a sea-level rise scenario of 1.1m* * Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts Report

Is it really that bad? Sea level rise is relatively easy ... it’s the extreme events that are the major worry!

Some examples of different outcomes North Queensland versus South East Queensland Fatalities: • North Queensland (cyclone Yasi) = 1 • South East Queensland (floods) = >20 • Brazil (floods) = >700 Japan versus Indonesia Fatalities: • Japan (Tsunami and earthquake) = >20 000 • Indonesia (Tsunami) = >200 000

Understanding vulnerability Eg. increased temperature Eg. elderly exposure sensitivity Eg. social networks Potential harm Adaptive capacity Past science focus Vulnerability Adapted from Allen Consulting 2005, after IPCC 2001 Allen Consulting 2005 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra, Australia. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). In: McCarthy, J., Caziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D. & White, K. (eds.) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

From planning to implementation Climate adaptation Adaptive Effective strategy Capacity Implementation

Adaptive capacity • Refers to what is needed to adapt: – Access to resources – Education – Social networks Responding to climate change is a social process

Evolution of adaptive capacity thinking Dominance of biophysical assessments of climate change Recognition of the importance of adaptive capacity Focus on searching for generic determinants of adaptive capacity Recognition of the importance of context Recognition of the need for case studies of adaptive capacity determinants Emerging discourse of the relationships between adaptive capacity determinants Daffara et al ., 2009 Daffara, P ., Keys, N. and Smith, T . F . 2009, Critical Review of Adaptive Capacity Literature , Report prepared for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility , Brisbane.

Conceptual model of adaptive capacity • Environmental change External influences on • Socio-economic change adaptive capacity • May have positive or Generic determinants of negative influences adaptive capacity depending on the context • Often assumed Context-specific determinants of adaptive capacity • Relationships not explored Daffara et al ., 2009

Drivers of climate change impacts Climate change drivers: • Wind, sea level rise, rainfall, temperature Other drivers: • Population movements (eg. migration) • Population characteristics (eg. education) • Economic conditions (eg. ability to raise funds) • Legislative and policy frameworks

Coastal Population Growth Projections Australian sea change regions Projected Projected (local government area, State) population change population in (2002 to 2022) 2022 Sunshine Coast, Queensland 80% increase 450,000 Surf Coast, Victoria 71% increase 30,572 Douglas Shire, Queensland 65% increase 17,365 Augusta-Margaret River, Western Australia 64% increase 16,513 Smith and Thomsen 2008, adapted from ABS 2001, and QDIP 2008 Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. (2008) “Understanding Vulnerabilities in Transitional Coastal Communities”, In Wallendorf, L., Ewing, L., Jones, C. and Jaffe, B. (eds.) Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008, April 13-16, Hawaii: American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 980-989. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001) Population Projections by SLA (ASGC 2001), 2002-2022. Canberra: Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing. Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning (QDIP) (2008) Sunshine Coast population and housing fact sheet. Brisbane: Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning, February 2008.

Population at risk in South East Queensland Risk of inundation from a 1-in-100 year storm surge event: • Current risk 270 000 people (10% of current population) • Risk in 2030 without population growth 378 000 people • Risk in 2030 with projected population growth of 60% 616 000 people This material was prepared by Xiaoming Wang, Mark Stafford Smith, Ryan McAllister, Anne Leitch, Steve McFallan, Seona Meharg of CSIRO‟s Climate Adaptation Flagship, based on research in the „South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative‟, analysis of readily available information and expert knowledge to provide a realistic assessment of the issues covered.

Vulnerability-based Risk Assessment of Climate Change Illustration of how adaptation can expand the coping range of an activity/sector/species and therefore expand the coping range and reduce vulnerability to climate change Jones & Mearns 2005

Adaptation discourses Resilience framework eg. ability to re-organise and renew Sustainability framework eg. inter-generational equity Vulnerability framework eg. reducing harm

Evolution of climate change science C Performance Next shift (3 rd Curve) – Resilience science? Holism? B Adaptation science (2 nd Curve) Trans-disciplinarity A Climate change science (1 st Curve) Mono-disciplinarity Time Daffara et al ., 2009

Adaptation pathways

Characteristics of Resource Dilemmas SLIM, 2002

Alternative models of knowledge construction SLIM, 2004

Post-normal science • Recognition of uncertainty • Value-laden • Participatory Kuhn, 1962; Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991; Ravetz, 1999 Kuhn, T. S. 1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions . Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Funtowicz, S. O. and Ravetz , J. R. 1991, „A new scientific methodology for global environmental issues‟, In Costanza, R. (ed.), Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability , pp. 137-152. Columbia University Press, New York. Ravetz , J. R. 1999, „What is post - normal science?‟, Futures , 31, pp. 647-653.

Post-normal science Decision Post-normal stakes science Professional consultancy Applied science Uncertainty Smith 2009 after Ravetz, 2006

Responding to sustainability • The compass • The gyroscope • social learning Kai Lee 1993; Milbrath 1989; Smith & Lazarow 2007 Lee, K. 1993, The Compass and the Gyroscope, Island Press, Washington DC. Milbrath, L. W. 1989, Sustainable Society: Learning Our Way Out, SUNY University Press, New York. Smith, T. F. and Lazarow, N. S. 2007, „Social Learning and the Adaptive Management Framework‟, Journal of Coastal Research, SI 39.

What is being done? 1. Australian Department of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency 2. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 3. The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship 4. Australian Research Council

Examples of climate change projects 1. Sydney climate change adaptation initiative (Dept of Climate Change) 2. Coastal Adaptation Pathways Program, Multi-criteria analysis for coastal adaptation decision-making (Dept of Climate Change) 3. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility a) Partner in the Facility b) Lead the Communities Theme of the Marine Biodiversity & Resources Network c) Part of the Socio-economic and Institutional Network d) Co-authored National Adaptation Research Plan for Human Settlements e) Synthesis project: Nature and Utility of Adaptive Capacity Research 4. Australian Research Council Discovery project: Household vulnerability index (Griffith, USC, Flinders) 5. CSIRO Coastal Collaboration Cluster (7 universities, $10m over 3 years) 6. SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (CSIRO, Griffith, USC, UQ; funded by CSIRO Collaboration Fund, DCC, Qld govt, $14m over 3 years)

Sydney Climate Change Adaptation Initiative “Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises” Aim:  To develop and trial a method for a systems approach to regional climate change adaptation strategies in large urban areas Researchers: Tim Smith, Ben Preston, Cassandra Brooke, Russell Gorddard, Tom Measham, Geoff Withycombe, Beth Beveridge, Debbie Abbs, Kathy McInnes, and Craig Morrison

An integrated approach • To study these systems we need to look at: – Drivers of change – Relays of change – Impacts on sustainability – Management responses