Climate change adaptation and wildfire protection in Harrop - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate change adaptation and wildfire protection in Harrop - Procter Public Meeting Harrop Hall June 26, 2019 Erik Leslie Forest Manager Harrop-Procter Community Co-op

Climate models: simplified summary Over the next 30 to 50 years:  Fall/ winter/ spring 2 - 5 warmer and 10 - 25% wetter  Summers 3 - 7 warmer and up to 30% drier  ~5 to 10+ times more average annual area burned  Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events 2

Harrop-Procter community priorities Relatively consistent community values for 20 years  Protect domestic water  Maintain/ enhance biodiversity  Create local jobs  Community wildfire protection (new priority since 2003) 3

Overview of project workplan 1. Risk assessment 2. Operations strategy 3. Management Plan and AAC 4

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Risk Assessment Objective: Prioritize areas for adaptive actions • Focus on next 20 to 40 years RISK = Probability X Consequence Probability of: Consequence to:  Fire  Homes Fire Consequence  Drought  Water High Moderate Low Very_low High  Biodiversity Probability Moderate Fire  Timber Low Very Low Fire Risk High Moderate Low 6

Fire probability Fire probability = likelihood of high severity fire High probability Moderate probability Low probability High fuel loads (from LiDAR) Moderate fuel loads Low fuel loads Dry site (per aSMR) Moderate site (per aSMR) Moist site (per aSMR) High percentage dead pine Slopes >50% Slopes 30 – 50% Slopes <30% 7

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Fuel density 10

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Absolute Soil Moisture 12

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Consequence mapping  Homes  Water  Biodiversity  Timber 17

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Risk Fire Consequence High Moderate Low Very_low High Probability Moderate Fire Low Very Low Fire Risk High Moderate Low

Fire risk to water — coming

Add climate change Average CMD ensemble all decades and scenarios ID2 Scenario Average of CMD ICH xw rcp45 433 Average CMD ensemble by subzone ICH xw rcp85 462 ICH dw 1 rcp45 302 500 ICH dw 1 rcp85 330 450 ICH mw 4 rcp45 169 400 ICH mw 4 rcp85 196 350 ESSFwh 3 rcp45 113 300 ESSFwh 3 rcp85 136 250 ESSFwm 4 rcp45 75 200 ESSFwm 4 rcp85 92 150 ESSFwm 3 rcp45 69 100 ESSFwm 3 rcp85 88 50 ESSFwmw rcp45 50 0 ESSFwmw rcp85 67 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 ESSFwmp rcp45 36 ICH xw ICH dw 1 ICH mw 4 ESSFwh 3 ESSFwm 4 ESSFwm 3 ESSFwmp rcp85 51 25

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2080’s drought probability 27

2080’s fire probability 28

2080’s fire risk to homes? 29

Risk assessment conclusions Top priority areas for adaption actions : Homes : Entire WUI (that is not wet or thinned) Timber : All accessible stands on submesic sites Water : Headwaters areas with high fuel loads Biodiversity : Older forests on submesic (mesic) sites Examples of target areas:  dense submesic ICH stands, especially with cedar  Any feasible landscape-level fuel break

Operations strategy — based on risks  Reserve design  Landscape fire breaks  WUI fuel reduction  Prescribed fire  Residual stand structure  Stocking standards  Stand tending  Species and provenances  More adaptation tools? Manage for resilience 32

60 - 70% of landbase in reserves 33

Fire/ fuel hazard reduction 34

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Interface areas 40

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Resilience 46

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Plant Ponderosa pine and deciduous species 55

Management Plan and AAC: Community decisions 56

Next steps 2019  Document operations strategy, develop AAC scenarios  Project newsletter #2 summer — send to stakeholders  Draft Handbook and Workshop — circulate to advisory committee  Advisory committee meeting #4: ~October/ November  Public meeting in Harrop ~November  Practitioners’ workshop ~December 57

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