Click to edit Master title style Pennyrile Future Project Kick-Off Presentation - May 2010 www.avalancheconsulting.com
Click to edit Master title style Agenda � Introduction � Project Overview Project Overview � Setting the Stage � Discussion
Click to edit Master title style Task Force Please introduce yourself: � Name � Organization � County in which you reside � County in which you reside
Click to edit Master title style Project Sponsors
Click to edit Master title style Your Team Amy Holloway, President Amy Holloway, President Joel Simon, Vice President Joel Simon, Vice President Chris Engle, Senior Consultant Sarah Miller, Consultant Tony DeLisi, Project Consultant
Click to edit Master title style 20+ U.S. States 80+ Regions Europe Mexico
Click to edit Master title style CAEL’s Intermediary Role Workforce Learning and Development Employers and Unions Higher Public Policy, Workforce Systems Education CAEL Colleges and Government Universities and Community
Click to edit Master title style CAEL Representative Engagements CAEL Representative Engagements Public Sector Education Corporate 8
Click to edit Master title style Agenda � Introduction � Project Overview Project Overview � Setting the Stage � Discussion
Click to edit Master title style Study Area Pennyrile Region + Montgomery County, TN
Click to edit Master title style Project Website www.PennyrileFuture.com
Click to edit Master title style Project Survey www.PennyrileFuture.com
Click to edit Master title style Project Timeline Project Tasks Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep PROJECT SETUP Project Setup, Website implementation T PHASE 1: WORKFORCE ANALYSIS Task 2.1: Economic Brief D Task 2.2: Employer Interviews and Focus Groups T Task 2.3: Employer Survey Task 2.4: Workforce Conditions Analysis T,D Task 2.5: Evaluate the Education Infrastructure Task 2.5: Evaluate the Education Infrastructure D D T T Task 2.6: Strategies & Recommendations PHASE 2: EMERGING SECTOR ANALYSIS & PLAN Task 3.1: Detailed Sector Analysis and Opportunities D Task 3.2: Target Industry Competitive Assets and Challenges T,D Task 3.3: Emerging Sectors Focus Groups T Task 3.4: Target Selection T,D Task 3.5: Best Practices D Task 3.6: Strategies and Recommendations T T,D T Task 3.7: Regional Summit and Sub-regional Workshops Trips/Travel REPORTS DELIVERED (D) D D D D TRIPS (T) T T T T
Click to edit Master title style Project Flow Steering Community Consulting Team Committee Outreach Public Website 1.1 Project Setup Unveiled Kick-Off Meeting 2.1 Economic 2.2 Employer Brief Interviews Steering Committee Individual Task 2.4: Workforce Interviews Conditions Analysis 2.3 Employer Survey Task 2.5: Evaluate the Education Infrastructure Phase 1 Findings & Interactive Workshops Trip 2: Research Findings (late June)
Click to edit Master title style Project Flow Steering Community Consulting Team Committee Outreach Task 3.1: Detailed Task 3.2: Asset Sector Analysis Analysis Task 3.3 Emerging Sectors Focus Interactive Groups Workshop on Emerging Sectors Task 3.4: Target Selection Phase 3 Findings Task 3.5: Best Presentation Practices Trip 3: Targets / Emerging Sectors Findings (August)
Click to edit Master title style Project Flow Task 2.6: Report 1, Workforce Analysis: Strategies & Recommendations Task 3.6: Report 2, Regional Economic Emerging Sector Strategic Analysis and Action Plan: Strategies & Recommendations Task 3.7: Regional Summit and Sub-region Implementation Workshops Trip 4: Strategy Trip 5: Regional Presentation Summit (Sept/Oct) (Aug/Sept)
Click to edit Master title style Deliverables Phase 2: Phase 1: Workforce Analysis Emerging Sector Analysis & Plan DELIVERABLES DELIVERABLES • Economic Brief • Sector Analysis and Opportunities • Workforce Conditions Report • Workforce Conditions Report • Target Industry Assets / Challenges • Target Industry Assets / Challenges • Employer Survey & Input Results • Target Selection • Educational Infrastructure Evaluation • Best Practices • Strategies & Recommendations • Strategies and Recommendations • Regional Summit
Click to edit Master title style Our Schedule This Week Familiarizing local leaders about the project � Touring the region � Getting an overview of economic and workforce conditions Getting an overview of economic and workforce conditions � Conducting 10+ focus groups and numerous interviews �
Click to edit Master title style Steering Committee Roles Avalanche / CAEL Steering Committee Project management Vision and goals Conduct research Promote the survey Manage public input Manage public input Regular meetings Regular meetings Analysis Review reports Develop recommendations Identify participants Write reports Enthusiasm Present reports Implementation
Click to edit Master title style Agenda � Introduction � Project Overview Project Overview � Setting the Stage � Discussion
Click to edit Master title style Previous Studies We have received and reviewed the following: Employment Assessment / Strategic Plan for Hopkinsville-Christian � County (Market Street, 2010) Almost Nashville, KY Economic Development Strategy (Boyette, 2009) � Labor Market Assessment for Fort Campbell Region (TIP, 2007) Labor Market Assessment for Fort Campbell Region (TIP, 2007) � Pennyrile Region Comprehensive ED Strategy (PADD, 2008/9) � Numerous other data reports and statewide studies �
Click to edit Master title style National Economy Positives • Economy in recovery, but will be a slow recovery • GDP has grown in the last 3 quarters • Employment growth not rebounding • • Unemployment still around 10% Unemployment still around 10% • Consumer confidence and spending has rebounded • Stock market has bounced back • This is the only “V-shaped” recovery, not the economy
Click to edit Master title style National Economy Negatives • Employment growth remains the biggest gap in the recovery • Same situation occurred in the last recession • Cost cutting measures will mean some jobs won’t come back • Government debt + lower tax revenue = cutbacks • Government debt + lower tax revenue = cutbacks • Local government and public education layoffs • Reduced budgets • Housing recovery has been slow and very uneven across U.S. • An estimated 25% of mortgages are still “underwater”; 50-70% in hardest-hit states • Concerns for double-dip are still prevalent
Click to edit Master title style Local Economic Picture Pre-recession, a majority of counties were growing at or above U.S. average (6%). Hopkins County enjoyed a modest recovery after losing modest recovery after losing jobs throughout 1998-2001. Some, but not all, rural counties are lagging. Metro job growth turned positive in early 2010.
Click to edit Master title style Demographic Changes New population is heavily drawn to the larger counties and proximity to Ft. Campbell. Large Hispanic and Asian Large Hispanic and Asian population growth. Did you know? The average age is falling. Child population is gaining. PLUS: Per capita income is gaining on U.S.
Click to edit Master title style Industry Job Shift Large percentage Net New Job Creation, 2003-2008 increases in mining and Pennyrile / Montgomery County Mining 2,326 private education. Construction 740 Manufacturing -3,057 Trade, Transp., and Util. 1,580 Good growth in software, Information Information -291 -291 professional svcs, Financial Activities 167 Professional Services 509 distribution, restaurants. Private Education 337 Health Care 617 Leisure and Hospitality 1,816 Manufacturing growth Other Services 474 found in wood products, Government 1,455 metals/machining, food, -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
Click to edit Master title style Forecast Scenarios for the Region High growth Forecast Scenario, Net New Jobs, Next 5 Years (2010-2015) anticipated nationally Pennyrile / Montgomery County growing at U.S. Rate in Professional Mining 138 Services, Health Care, Construction 898 Trade, and Hospitality. Manufacturing 637 Mftg expected to Trade, Transp., and Util. 2003-08 1,189 rebound. rebound. Information Information 80 2010-15 Forecast at US growth rate Financial Activities 372 Professional Services How well is the 1,727 Private Education Pennyrile region 116 Health Care positioned to 2,342 Leisure and Hospitality participate in this 2,148 growth? Other Services 388 Government 2,216 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Net New Jobs
Click to edit Master title style Take-Away for this Process • Now is the time to start planning for post-recession • Outlook for future will be much improved in 6-12 months • Part of our research process will be to connect the data to “ground-level” realities and local perceptions . “ground-level” realities and local perceptions . • We will make use of past research studies and extend targets into niche sectors within established industries, emerging sectors, and new products and technologies
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