Chart 1 U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consumer plus - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Chart 1 U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consumer plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Income Last Points 4Q 2015- Saving Rate, 5.4%; HH Debt, 104.7% 16% 140% 130% 14% 120% 12% 110% 10% 100% 90% 8% 80% 6% 70% 4% 60% 2% 50% Jan-59 Jan-65 Jan-71 Jan-77 Jan-83 Jan-89 Jan-95 Jan-01 Jan-07 Jan-13 Saving Rate (SAAR) - left axis Household Debt as a % of Disposable Personal Income - right axis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve

Chart 2 Real GDP Growth During Expansions annualized rates of expansion from NBER trough-to-peak 8% 8% 7.6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5.6% 5.1% 4.9% 5% 5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.0% 4% 4% 3.6% 3% 3% 2.8% 2.1%* 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1950 1954 1958 1961 1971 1975 1980 1983 1991 2002 2009 Recession Start Date *Through 1Q 2016 Source: BEA, NBER

Chart 3 Eurozone Real GDP Growth Last Point 1Q 2016: Q/Q, 2.2%; Y/Y, 1.6% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.0% -6.0% -6.0% -8.0% -8.0% -10.0% -10.0% -12.0% -12.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 quarter/quarter % change, seas. adj. annual rates year/year % change Source: eurostat

Chart 4 Japanese Real GDP Growth Last Points 4Q 2015: Q/Q, -1.1%; Y/Y, 0.8% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -20% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 quarter/quarter % change, seas. adj. annual rates year/year % change Source: Japanese Cabinet Office

Chart 5 Central Bank Assets change since January 2007 Last Points: April 2016 450% 450% 400% 400% 350% 350% 300% 300% 250% 250% 200% 200% 150% 150% 100% 100% 50% 50% 0% 0% -50% -50% Jan-07 Sep-08 May-10 Jan-12 Sep-13 May-15 Federal Reserve Bank of England European Central Bank Bank of Japan Source: Bloomberg; The Central Banks

Chart 6 S&P 500 Index Last Point 05/12/16: 2,064.11 2200 2200 2000 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 Jan-07 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 7 Historical Fed Committee Forecasts for Real GDP Growth based on central tendency midpoint forecast at first FED meeting of the year 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Actual Real GDP 2013 2011 2014 Source: Federal Reserve 2012 2015 Note: Longer run forecast used for 2018 forecast made in 2015.

Chart 8 Corporate Profits and Employee Compensation as a percentage of National Income Last Points 4Q 2015 - Corp. Profits: 12.1%, Employee Comp: 62.6% 68% 15% 67% 14% 66% 13% 65% 12% 64% 63% 11% 62% 10% 61% 9% 60% 8% 59% 58% 7% 1947-I 1959-III 1972-I 1984-III 1997-I 2009-III Compensation of Employees - left axis Corp. Profits with IVA and CCAdj - right axis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Chart 9 Real Weekly Wages and Household Incomes year/year percent changes Last Points 2014- Income: -1.5%, Wages: 1.0% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -3% -4% -4% -5% -5% -6% -6% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Avg. Real Weekly Wages of Production and Supervisory Employees Real Median Household Income Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau

Chart 10 Labor Force Participation Rate Last Point April 2016: 62.8% 68% 68% 67% 67% 66% 66% 65% 65% 64% 64% 63% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61% 60% 60% 59% 59% 58% 58% Jan-48 Jan-57 Jan-66 Jan-75 Jan-84 Jan-93 Jan-02 Jan-11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart 11 Retail Sales retail trade and food services Last Point April 2016: M/M, 1.3%; Yr/Yr, 3.0% 1.5% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -0.5% -2.0% -1.0% -3.0% Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Month/Month Percent Change - left axis Year/Year Percent Change - right axis Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Chart 12 Chinese Real Gross Domestic Product year/year percent change Last Point 1Q 2016: 6.7% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Bloomberg; Chinese National Bureau of Statistics

Chart 13 Chinese Exports year/year percent change Last Point April 2016: -1.8% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% -20% -20% -30% -30% Jan-07 Sep-08 May-10 Jan-12 Sep-13 May-15 Source: China General Administration of Customs

Chart 14 Chinese Total Debt as a Share of GDP includes corporate, household, government and bank debt Last Point 2015: 246.8% 250% 250% 240% 240% 230% 230% 220% 220% 210% 210% 200% 200% 190% 190% 180% 180% 170% 170% 160% 160% 150% 150% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Bloomberg

Chart 15 United States Manufacturing Value Added as % share of GDP Last Point 4Q 2015: 12.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0% 16.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0% 15.0% 14.5% 14.5% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5% 13.5% 13.0% 13.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.0% 12.0% 11.5% 11.5% 1997 1999 2002 2004 2007 2009 2012 2014 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; The World Bank

Chart 16 G7 and BRIC Personal Consumption to GDP Ratio: 2014 U.S. 68.6% U.K. 64.7% Brazil 62.5% Japan 61.1% Italy 61.1% India 59.3% Germany 55.9% Canada 55.8% France 55.5% Russia 53.0% China 36.5% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Source: The World Bank

Chart 17 Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index and WTI Crude Oil Last Points 05/12/16- CRB: 184.39; WTI: $46.70 240 65 230 60 220 55 210 50 200 45 190 40 180 35 170 30 160 150 25 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 CRB Index - left axis WTI Crude Oil (dollars per barrel) - right axis Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 18 Iron Ore and Nickel $ per tonne Last Point 05/12/16: Iron Ore, $54.50; Nickel, $8,775 200 50000 180 45000 160 40000 140 35000 120 30000 100 25000 80 20000 60 15000 40 10000 20 5000 Jan-07 Sep-08 May-10 Jan-12 Sep-13 May-15 Iron Ore - left axis Nickel - right axis Source: Thomson Reuters; Bloomberg

Chart 19 Real U.S. Commodity Prices CRB Index Deflated by CPI Last Point March 2016: 72.15 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 1774 1814 1854 1894 1934 1974 2014 Source: Bianco Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Historical Statistics of the Un

Chart 20 Brazil and Russia Real GDP Growth year/year percent change Last Points 4Q 2015: Brazil, -5.9%; Russia, -3.8% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% -15% Mar-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Jun-13 Sep-14 Dec-15 Brazil GDP Russia GDP Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics; Bloomberg

Chart 21 Total Oil Output for Non-OPEC and OPEC Countries million barrels per day Last Points 3Q 2015 - Non-OPEC: 58.68; OPEC: 37.71 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 1996 1998 2001 2003 2006 2008 2011 2013 Non-OPEC OPEC Source: Energy Information Administration

Chart 22 United States Crude Oil Production million barrels per day Last Points 05/6/16: 8.80 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 Source: Energy Information Administratio

Chart 23 Crude Oil Rotary Rig Count and Average Oil Production Per Rig Last Points April 2016: Rigs, 372; Oil Prod., 475 1600 500 450 1400 400 1200 350 1000 300 800 250 200 600 150 400 100 200 50 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 Rig Count - left axis Average Oil Production Per Rig (barrels/day) - right axis Source: Bloomberg; Baker Hughes

Chart 24 Oil Breakeven Price for Major Petrostates $ per barrel $250 $250 $208 $200 $200 $150 $150 $105 $98 $96 $93 $100 $89 $100 $76 $70 $68 $58 $52 $50 $50 Current Brent Crude, $/barrel: $48.08 $0 $0 U.A.E. Kuwait Qatar Iran Iraq Venezuela Algeria Saudi Arabia Oman Bahrain Libya *Breakeven price needed in order to balance the national budget. Source: Bloomberg; The Wall Street Journal

Chart 25 OPEC Oil Output By Country million barrels per day Last Point: April 2016 12 12 10.3 10 10 8 8 6 6 4.3 3.5 4 4 3.0 2.9 2.4 1.8 1.7 2 2 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0 0 U.A.E. Iraq Iran Kuwait Venezuela Angola Nigeria Algeria Indonesia Qatar Ecuador Libya Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg

Chart 26 Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves billion USD Last Point March 2016: $587.08 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 2001 2002 2004 2006 2007 2009 2011 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bloomberg; International Monetary Fund