Changing Demographics Grey County Prepared by Institutional - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Changing Demographics Grey County Prepared by Institutional Research (February 2016)

Pop. Growth 15 to 19 year olds in Ontario 1,050,000 Expected return to growth 11.6% 1,000,000 growth 2013 950,000 to 2041 900,000 return to 2013 population 850,000 level in 2032 800,000 -9.6% 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2

Pop. Growth 15 to 19 year olds in Grey County 6,500 return to 2013 population Expected return to growth level is not reached by 6,000 2041 5,500 7.5% decline 2013 to 5,000 2041 -18.9% 4,500 4,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 3

Grey County – pop. change 2013 to 2020 24.3% 15.6% 6.7% 3.3% 0.8% -13.3% -18.9% -20.6% 0 to 14 15-19 20-24 25 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 65 65+ 4

Pop. Change 15 to 19 year olds in other counties 5000 0.5% 4500 -18.1% 4000 -0.3% -16.8% -7.5% 3500 -19.9% -19.9% 3000 -16.7% 2500 -17.4% 2000 - 18.5% 1500 Muskoka Dufferin Bruce Huron Parry Sound 1000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 5

15 -19 years – All Municipalities 2013 to 2020 -35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% 10.0% 15.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% Toronto Durham Halton Peel York Brant Dufferin Hald-Nor Haliburton Hamilton Muskoka Niagara Northumberland Peterborough Simcoe Kawartha Waterloo Wellington Ottawa Frontenac Hastings Lanark Leedsgren Lennox-Add Pres-Russ Prince Edward refrew Sto-Dun-Glen Kenora Rainy River TBAy Algoma Cochrane Manitoulin Nipissing Parry Sound Greater Sudbury Sudbury Timiskaming Bruce Elgin Essex Grey Huron Chatham-Kent Lambton Middlesex Oxford Perth 6

15 -19 years – All Municipalities 2013 to 2041 -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 0.0% Toronto Durham Halton Peel York Brant Dufferin Hald-Nor Haliburton Hamilton Muskoka Niagara Northumberland Peterborough Simcoe Kawartha Waterloo Wellington Ottawa Frontenac Hastings Lanark Leedsgren Lennox-Add Pres-Russ Prince Edward refrew Sto-Dun-Glen Kenora Rainy River TBAy Algoma Cochrane Manitoulin Nipissing Parry Sound Greater Sudbury Sudbury Timiskaming Bruce Elgin Essex Grey Huron Chatham-Kent Lambton Middlesex Oxford 7 Perth

Change in the number of 15-19 year olds by county 2013 to 2020 2013 to 2041 Muskoka -595 -268 Dufferin -849 23 Bruce -668 -13 Grey -1100 -435 Huron -794 -793 Parry Sound -405 -432 Simcoe -4060 2200 -8,471 282 TOTAL 8

Impact Demographic changes will have a profound impact on: • fiscal planning • program mix • Program delivery options 9

Planning • Undertake appropriate fiscal planning and execution to mitigate drop in grant funding for FTPS • Refine program mix and institutional organization to target potential growth areas • Second career • Part Time Studies • International students • Workforce Development 10

Planning • Refine/enhance program delivery options • Online • Hybrid • Continuous intake • Increase degree offerings in Simcoe-Grey through our Lakehead-Georgian partnership 11