Challenges of Urmia Lake and Restoration Program Prepared by: International Cooperation Division, ULRP August 2017 1
IRAN: 6 main hydrological Basins; Area of the Urmia Lake Basin:52,000 Sq.Km Area of the Urmia Lake- Water Body (original size): 5,000 Sq.Km Population: 6,000,000 (2011) Provinces: West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, Kurdistan Urmia Lake Basin 2
Ecological Values of the wetlands in Urmia Lake Basin • 1 National Park - Urmia Lake • 1 UNESCO - Biosphere Reserve – Urmia lake • 5 Ramsar Sites in the basin - Urmia Lake and some of satellite wetlands. • 9 Globally important bird areas - Urmia Lake and satellite wetlands. 3
Ecological Values (continue): White Pelican breading in Urmia Lake islands – old photo from DOE Archive 4
Urmia lake status variation during last 100 years
Levels of Urmia Lake 1965 - 2016 Highest level: 1278 1278.1m in 1995 1277 Lowest level: 1270.06m in 2015 1276 Ecological Level (1274.1 m) 1275 Level (m) 1274 8 meters declined 1273 1272 1271 1270 1269 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 6 t (Year)
Lake Urmia
Challenges (continue): - Drought in Lake Urmia Islands and Migration of Wildlife to outside of the lake Date: Dec. 2010 8
Agricultural lands around the dried lake are drying out
Had Urmia lake been dried up during its history? Except from the observations of the last decades, do geological evidences confirm natural lake dry up due to global warming? 200000 year hydrological fluctuation in Urmia Lake Urmia lake 2014 Reference: Stevens et al. (2012)
The main reasons for drying up of Urmia lake Since 1975 1. More than triple times growth of the area of the cultivation lands Human Activities 2. Increasing support of a considerable number of reservoirs and large irrigation network 1. Significant decrease in precipitation Climate Change 2. Increasing trend of average maximum temperature 11
Climate variation in Urmia lake basin Long-term mean precipitation series in Urmia lake basin 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1995 2001 2006 2012 12 Reference: Ministry of Energy (2013)
Mean temperature fluctuation in Urmia lake basin Temperature ( ° C) 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1995 2001 2006 2012 t (year) 14 Reference: Ministry of Energy (2013)
The variation of runoff entering the lake Flow (MCM) 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1995 2001 2006 2012 t (year) 15 Reference: Ministry of Energy (2013)
Zola river Declined 66% Nazloo River Declined 57% Rozeh Chai Delined 56% Shahar Chai Declined 71% Declining of surface water runoff to the lake comparing two periods: Reference: Iran Water Resources management Company Before crisis 1966-1996 After crisis 1997- 2012
2013-2014 Reference: Remote Sensing Research 17 17 Center, Sharif University of Technology
Reference: Tourian et al. (2015)
Reference: Tourian et al. (2015)
Irrigated Area Changes Orchards increased % 33 and irrigated lands increased % 105 20 Reference: Fatahian (2012)
Irrigated Land (2013) Irrigated Land Basin boundary Reference: Remote Sensing Research Center, Sharif University of Technology
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Location of the wells in three provinces Wells located in East Azerbaijan 107000 wells are available in the basin which are consuming surface water then no water can reach the lake. Wells located in West Azerbaijan Wells Year 2002 2007 2012 located in Number 64400 88900 107000 Kurdistan of wells
Trend of the number of wells 90000 85000 80000 75000 Total 70000 65000 60000 Shallow wells 55000 50000 Number 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 Deep wells 15000 10000 5000 0 يبآ لاس 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2005 2010 2014 24
Trend of irrigation land changes 600 500 400 1000 ha 300 200 100 0 1353 1358 1363 1368 1373 1378 1383 1388 1393 1978 1985 1995 2005 2010 2014 25
Unauthorized water withdrawal from surface water 8 5 4 3 2 1 15 7 12 10 9 6 14 13 11
Crop Pattern changes Crop 1994 2006 381751 511926 Total Irrigated Land 43 36 % % Grains 25 20 % % Fodder 2.6 1.5 % % Cereals 1.6 0.24 % % Oil Seeds 1.9 4.4 % % Sugar beet 6 ---- % Vegetables 3.8 3.5 % % Potato 16 30 % % Orchards 27
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Challenges (continue): - Prevention of water Circulation in the lake by causeway
Report of the Ministry of Energy about the share of reasons on Urmia Lake Desiccation Natural factors : • 18% reduction in precipitation • Increase in temperature of 1.5 Human factors : degrees in the last two decades of • Agricultural development the long period of 45 years due to the construction of • Changes of Precipitating Pattern dams and withdrawal of groundwater resources 31% 69% Natural Factors Human factors 30
Estimate of future water availability and impacts of water management strategies 31 Reference: Shadkam et al. (2016)
Estimate of future water availability and impacts of water management strategies 32 Reference: Shadkam et al. (2016)
8 5 4 3 2 1 15 7 12 10 9 6 14 13 11 33
Challenges : - Crystallization of salt in Lake Urmia Salt Density: 400 g/L - Date: Dec. 2010 34
35
bed of Urmia Lake – Summer 2013
َ Changes in the area of Urmia lake and its Albedo 0.18 5,000 4,500 0.16 4,000 0.14 Area of the U.L AREA OF URMIA LAKE (SQ.KM) 3,500 0.12 3,000 0.1 ALBEDO 2,500 0.08 2,000 0.06 1,500 0.04 1,000 Albedo of U.L 0.02 500 0 0 YEAR From 2007 to 2013 , Urmia lake’s Albedo has improved fourth fold and total lake and dried up regions Albedo has grown as much as 2.5 times as its previous value.
July 1999 38
September 2013 39
Increase in desert areas due to the recession of the Lake September 2014 40
Sand movement in west margin of Urmia Lake (Jebel-Kandy region) January 2015 41
Introducing Urmia lake as one of the main centers in the Middle East Ginoux et al., 2012 ) (
Dust production zones 1 Maximum Repetition observed area Zone number number (km 2 ) 2 1 39 1 6 88 2 3 1 23 3 4 23 4 4 4 44 5 5
Locating sites of ongoing consolidation The main production centers of detected dust measures dust
يكشخ موادت زا يشان ياه بيسآ و تارطخ مها هيمورا هچايرد Salt storm ررگزير ديلوت ياه نوناك هعسوت زا يشان يكمن ياهدرگزير داجيا رد د نآ رواجم راز هروش قطانم و هيمورا هچايرد ينوكسم و يزرواشك ياه هدودحم هب نآ هعسوت و يياز نابايب هقطنم رد جلبعلا بعص ياه يراميب داجيا يزرواشك يضارا نتفر نيب زا ياهاترسور هيلخت هژيو هب و هچايرد رواجم قطانم زا ترجاهم شيازفا هچايرد كيدزن هقطنم رد يميلقا تاناسون و رييغت ديدشت 45
HYSPLIT4 simulation results for August 2012 Dust trajectories will get altitude up to 1000 m over the ground surface and will distribute northward to more than latitude of 41 N. It means the situation of Lake Urmia is not a national problem and it will affect a region with a radius of more than 250 km 46
Affected areas within a radius of 100 kilometers Affected areas within a radius of 500 kilometers Affected areas within a radius of 75 kilometers
Threats • Health • Agriculture/Economical – Skin – Farms – Eyes – Tourism – Lungs • Social – Migration • Environmental – Unemployment – Salt – Desertification • Infrastructures – Migrant Birds – Wildlife 48
Health Threats A Pilot on Health Issue Subject: The Epidemiology of diseases from dust Objective: Assessment of dust impacts on Lungs of School Children Study area: 3 villages, Ilkhchi District, East Azerbaijan 3 schools, 88 students 49
Probable diseases due to the continuation of the status quo 1. Asthma and Bronchitis 2. Acute Respiratory Infections 3. Upper Respiratory Infections 4. Occlusive disease of the respiratory 5. Various types of incurable diseases 6. Cardiovascular disease and heart attacks
Urmia Lake water level before crisis: 1277.69 masl Current water level: 1270.30 masl Lake salinity before crisis: 160 ppt Amount of salt in Lake water: Where the salt has gone? 33 bm3 * 240 kg/m3 = 8 Billion tons Minerals are sedimented mostly in deep zones Annual evaporation and consequent salt/minerals sedimentation added layer on layer to fill the deep parts causing significant changes in geomorphology of the lake 51 51
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