Poultry in the 21 st Century Poultry in the 21 st Century Bangkok, 5 November 2007 Bangkok, 5 November 2007 Challenges for Global Challenges for Global Feed Industries Feed Industries Dr. Andreas Kocher, Dr. Andreas Kocher, Technical Manager, Alltech Australia Technical Manager, Alltech Australia
Industry Survey Indicated (Jan ’07) Industry Survey Indicated (Jan ’07) • Raw material prices • Raw material prices • By-product utilization • By-product utilization • Mycotoxins • Mycotoxins • Production of quality progeny • Production of quality progeny As the 4 major issues faced related to; As the 4 major issues faced related to; • Maximizing physical performance • Maximizing physical performance • Bottom line profitability • Bottom line profitability • Food Safety • Food Safety • Traceability • Traceability
Snapshot of Snapshot of our our industry industry • Feed: 700 million • Feed: 700 million tons globally tons globally • Critical part of the • Critical part of the food chain food chain • $130 billion • $130 billion • Growing 2-3% • Growing 2-3% per year per year • Global grains are limited: • Global grains are limited: 2,000 million tons 2,000 million tons
The relationship between meat consumption and per capita income in 2002
Income and population growth are the key Income and population growth are the key drivers behind increased food consumption… drivers behind increased food consumption… Expected population and income growth, selected countries Expected population and income growth, selected countries 2.0% India 2.0% India Mexico 1.5% Mexico 1.5% Annual Population Growth Annual Population Growth China China 1.0% 1.0% Brazil Brazil France France US US 0.5% 0.5% 2005/10 2005/10 Germany Germany Japan Japan 0.0% 0.0% Italy Italy 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 -0.5% -0.5% -1.0% -1.0% Russia Russia -1.5% -1.5% -2.0% -2.0% Expected Income Growth 2005/10 (%) Expected Income Growth 2005/10 (%) Rabobank analysis base on UN-Population department and IMF data Rabobank analysis base on UN-Population department and IMF data
2030 - China’s requirements for meat… 2030 - China’s requirements for meat… Population: 1.5 billion Population: 1.5 billion *FCR = 3.5 Meat per person: 70 kilos Meat per person: 70 kilos 320 million more tons of feed 320 million more tons of feed For China alone!! For China alone!!
Global production of pig and poultry meat 2050* - Raw material consequences: 2000 2030 2050 Global Meat Production (MT) 229 375 465 Liveweight x 1-3 killing out % (MT) 300 488 595 x 3.54 (av FCR) (MT) 1050 1706 2082 An increased need of 1032 MT raw material *excludes Dairy
The 2050 impact of Asia with The 2050 impact of Asia with ~66% world’s population ~66% world’s population ~236,000,000T more ~236,000,000T more meat consumed meat consumed ~1,032,000,000T more ~1,032,000,000T more raw materials for pig raw materials for pig and poultry feed and poultry feed ?What raw materials? ?What raw materials? ?What % of Asia’s ?What % of Asia’s meat requirement be meat requirement be produced in Asia? produced in Asia?
THE FUTURE for the poultry industry • Grain: Food/Feed/Fuel? • Sustainability? • Diseases? • Traceability?
State of the Union Address State of the Union Address The new mandate: The new mandate: •Cut US gasoline usage by •Cut US gasoline usage by 20% in next 10 years 20% in next 10 years (substitute with ethanol) (substitute with ethanol) • Target: 35 B gal. of alcohol • Target: 35 B gal. of alcohol by 2017 by 2017 • Corn required 350M Tons • Corn required 350M Tons •DDGs produced 116 M •DDGs produced 116 M Tons Tons Dateline January 23, 2007 • If all the plants have the Dateline January 23, 2007 • If all the plants have the same size, this means 400 same size, this means 400 more alcohol plants more alcohol plants “This is 5 times the current target.” “This is 5 times the current target.” George W. Bush, 2007 George W. Bush, 2007
Poultry industry feels ethanol squeeze Poultry industry feels ethanol squeeze • Higher feed costs hitting bottom lines in poultry industry: going up 18% due to corn prices • The projected increase cost for US chicken & Turkey – U$ 2 Billion • The projected increase cost for the egg industry – U$ 750M • The projected increase globally – U$ 9 Billion Feedstuffs, January 22, 2007
Cereal and Starch: The world’s Cereal and Starch: The world’s current supplies 2000 million tons current supplies 2000 million tons Corn (Maize) Wheat Barley Rice Corn (Maize) Wheat Barley Rice 700 million tons 620 million tons 137 million tons 400 million tons 700 million tons 620 million tons 137 million tons 400 million tons USA - 300 EU- 122 EU- 53 China- 127 USA - 300 EU- 122 EU- 53 China- 127 China - 140 China- 97 Russia- 16 India- 87 China - 140 China- 97 Russia- 16 India- 87 EU- 131 India- 72 Canada- 13 Indonesia-36 EU- 131 India- 72 Canada- 13 Indonesia-36 Brazil- 43 USA- 57 Australia- 10 Vietnam- 22 Brazil- 43 USA- 57 Australia- 10 Vietnam- 22 India- 33 Russia- 47 Ukraine- 9 Bangladesh- 28 India- 33 Russia- 47 Ukraine- 9 Bangladesh- 28 Mexico- 26 Canada- 17 Turkey- 8 Thailand- 18 Mexico- 26 Canada- 17 Turkey- 8 Thailand- 18 Canada- 26 Australia- 24 Canada- 26 Australia- 24 Ukraine- 18 Ukraine- 1 Ukraine- 18 Ukraine- 1 Argentina- 18 Turkey- 18 Argentina- 18 Turkey- 18
U.S. Corn Production Billion Bushels 14.00 13.3 13.00 11.8 12.00 11.1 11.00 10.5 10.09 9.92 9.76 10.00 9.50 9.43 9.21 8.97 9.00 8.00 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 USDA-NASS 10-12-07
U.S. Soybean Production Billion Bushels 3.40 3.19 3.20 3.12 3.06 3.00 2.89 2.76 2.74 2.76 2.80 2.69 2.65 2.60 2.60 2.45 2.40 2.20 2.00 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 USDA-NASS 10-12-07
Where are Where are we going? we going? Food Food Feed Feed Fuel Fuel The impact of a country policy change The impact of a country policy change
Back to where the livestock industry started: Back to where the livestock industry started: By-product utilization By-product utilization Wheat - 110 MT = • Vegetable offals • Vegetable offals - 60 MT Rice Soya Rapeseed • Oilseed Meals • Oilseed Meals 300 MT Coconut Palm - 30 MT Corn (DDGS) • Starch/Distilling • Starch/Distilling Cassava residue? Sweet potato Wheat/sorghum • Novel plant materials/by-products? • Novel plant materials/by-products? (Estimated volumes)
What are the major challenges Mycotoxins Variability
���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� % Positive Average, ppb Maximum, ppb Mycotoxin % Positive Average, ppb Maximum, ppb Aflatoxin Aflatoxin 100 9.5 23.6 100 9.5 23.6 Ochratoxin Ochratoxin 100 6.5 18.1 100 6.5 18.1 T- T -2 toxin 2 toxin 60 16.2 23.8 60 16.2 23.8 Zearalenone Zearalenone 100 38.5 87.5 100 38.5 87.5 Fumonisin Fumonisin 75 20.0 70.0 75 20.0 70.0 Vomitoxin Vomitoxin 100 50.0 120.0 100 50.0 120.0
Mycotoxins in Copra Meal? Mycotoxins in Copra Meal? Mycotoxin % Average Maximum % Average Maximum Positive Positive ppb ppb ppb ppb Aflatoxin Aflatoxin 100 28.8 52.7 100 28.8 52.7 Ochratoxin Ochratoxin 100 20.8 33.2 100 20.8 33.2 T- -2 toxin 2 toxin T 100 41.5 70.1 100 41.5 70.1 Zearalenone Zearalenone 100 100 56.0 56.0 82.1 82.1 Fumonisin Fumonisin 100 80 250 100 80 250 Vomitoxin Vomitoxin 100 120 190 100 120 190
Mycotoxins in Rice Bran? Mycotoxins in Rice Bran? Mycotoxin % Positive Average, Maximum, % Positive Average, Maximum, ppb ppb ppb ppb Aflatoxin Aflatoxin 100 15.8 64.6 100 15.8 64.6 Ochratoxin Ochratoxin 100 29.0 170.1 100 29.0 170.1 T- -2 toxin 2 toxin T 100 68.3 252.1 100 68.3 252.1 Zearalenone Zearalenone 100 112.7 591.7 100 112.7 591.7 Fumonisin Fumonisin 83.3 130.0 460.0 83.3 130.0 460.0 Vomitoxin Vomitoxin 100 140.0 140.0 100 140.0 140.0
Trends to consider • Decrease the dietary energy and nutrient level • Incur in higher cost of production of their diets
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