Ch Challenges of Mi Micro-We Weather Fo Forecasting for UAS Skyways Dr James Pinto Deputy Director, Research Applications Laboratory NCAR, Boulder 29 April 2019 With key contributions from: Sean Bailey and Suzanne Weaver Smith (UKY) Pedro Jimenez, Anders Jensen Tracy Hertneky (RAL) Gijs De boer (University of Colorado) 1
Ch Challenge • Small UAS very susceptible to finescale weather variability • Smaller scale phenomena are inherently more uncertain to predict. Predictive Scale Uncertainty What are the requirements for a particular UAS operation? How do we translate uncertain wx info into decisions? 2
NC NCAR UA UAS/UA UAM Wx Wx Pr Program Partnerships UAS Sensor Finescale Calibration Prediction Improve Guidance/ UAS Wx Integration Impacts Translation Gap Analysis User Interactions 3
Re Realtime Fi Finesc scale Pr Prediction for LAPSE-RA RATE TE NOAA/NCEP High Resolution Rapid Refresh 3km grid spacing Meso-to-microscale coupling research 100 m grid spacing ongoing at NCAR (Munoz-Esparza et al. 2018) 100 km 4
LA LAPSE SE-RATE TE Fi Fiel eld d Exper Experimen ent • Period: 15-21 July 2018 • Location: San Luis Valley, South-central Colorado • WRF-based system - run twice per day • Used in next day mission 100 km planning • 100 m grid spacing – can resolve gusts and thermals LES Domain 5
Dr Drain ainag age F Flo low C Cas ase S Study • 75 UKY flights Asset Deployment in Saguache Canyon • 2 quadcopters • 3 fixed-wing platform 19 July 2018 • 2 long duration orbits – CU TTwistor BlueCat Fixed Wing UAS UKY DJI UKY S1000 CU TTwistor UKY BCT5D Drainage ASOS UKY BCT5E CU lidar Saguache Airport (04V) 6
Ev Evolution of Drainage Winds in San Luis Valley 12 hour run valid: 06:00 – 18:00 UTC (00:00 – 12:00 LT) ~300 ft AGL *04V 04V = ASOS at Saguache Airport 7
Evaluation on of M of Mod odeled W Wind V Variability w y with UA UAS Wind Direction Wind Speed UKY-5D Model Model NW UKY-5B SE Drainage UAS UAS Drainage 8
UA UAS Data Assimilation Impact on Low-level Winds 10 m winds ASOS 04V vs WRF LES DA Period noDA DA ASOS Direction Speed UAS DA results in 25%-50% reduction in mean error
In Inter erac activ tive e Tools ls 150 m AGL Adapted technologies to make products specific for UAS planning • Used for daily weather briefings for LAPSE RATE : 14-21 July 2018 • 10
Futur Future e of UAS Wea eather ther Guidanc uidance Predicted Winds, Turbulence, Battery Charge along Flight Path with Uncertainty UAS sensed data 11
Futur Future e of UAS Wea eather ther Guidanc uidance Simulation for Oklahoma City 10 m grid spacing using FastEddy TM Sauer and Domingo-Esparza 12
Questions? 13
Backup Slides 14
Model Con Mod Configuration on Model Physics Domain 1 D01 1 km resolution • WSM Microphysics • 487 x 637 x 45 gps • MYNN2 PBL – D01 Only, D02 = WRF_LES • Domain 2 NOAH LSM • 100 m resolution • Builds on Munoz-Esparza et al 2017, 2018 • 1008 x 972 x 45 gps • D02 GFS WRF D02 (avail. by 4pm LT) WRF D00 WRF D01 Next Day Fcst 18Z 04Z 10Z 22Z 12Z Day of Fcst WRF D02 (avail. by 4am LT) HRRR WRF D01 ( 6 hr spinup) 15
Evaluation of Fi Ev Finesc scale Mo Model el Winds Obs drainage flow periods ASOS at Saguache Airport Bias WRF LES at Saguache Airport Max -1.5 m s -1 -2.5 +0.8 +1.0 -1.0 Wspd: 0 Timing: L L L 0 16
Recommend
More recommend
