CH Boilers Ecodesign and Energy Label Preparatory Review Study - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CH Boilers Ecodesign and Energy Label Preparatory Review Study Task 2 (DRAFT) Market Analysis DRAFT INTERIM REPORT Review study Commission Regulation (EU) No. 813/2013 [Ecodesign] and Commission Delegated Regulation No. (EU) No. 811/2013 (Energy Label) Prepared by VHK in collaboration with BRG Building Solutions, London (UK) The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission

Content 1. Intro 2. Generic economic data (Eurostat) 3. Market & stock data (BRG) 4. Prices & rates 5. Market actors & costs 6. Evaluation and outlook

Intro: study goals Update (MEErP) in  see chapters hereafter & methodology slide • Review (Art. 7 of regulations)  • ED appropriate – for GHG refrigerants, CO, HC, PM? – for energy efficiency, NOx, sound power? – for biofuel (gas/oil)? – In view of PEF and 3rd party certification? EL assessment – shift in market share – if package label appropriate – If having other heating efficiency than the standard season is OK – If PFHRD should be included Evaluate (REFIT). Did the regulations work as they were supposed to and • was there no significant negative impact?

Boiler production EU 2016: 6.44 m gas/oil @ €5.1bn + 0.44 m heat pump @ €1.6bn + € 0.2bn other = 6.9m @ €6.9bn (in manufacturer selling prices msp ) Incl. solid fuel EU2 8 CH- Boiler Production 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 1 6 10000 (in '000 units), source: Eurostat 9 1 1 7 9000 2004: 7.4m 8 4 7 4 8 0 4 2 156 @ €6.9bn * 7 8 5 9 8000 439 Cyprus 7 5 9 9 156 Croatia 7 2 0 3 399 156 Slovenia 6 8 4 5 1 2 7 4 6 9 5 9 *=inflation corrected 355 268 6 8 4 8 6 8 0 8 Bulgaria 7000 156 6 7 6 1 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 Rom ania 315 459 1 2 4 2 Hungary 538 1 2 1 0 362 392 Czech Republic 1 0 2 7 490 6000 180 515 502 Lituania 1 2 0 3 164 485 516 447 467 470 Latvia 423 496 Estonia 479 5000 Malta 1 1 5 0 1 3 4 6 1 1 5 7 1 0 8 0 1 1 1 9 3 5 5 3 Austria 1 5 6 3 1 2 5 9 3 1 0 9 Finland 1 3 4 0 3 4 3 6 2 9 8 5 Sweden 4000 2 4 7 0 Luxemburg Belgium 1 7 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 3 Spain 2 1 3 5 1 7 2 8 3000 1 8 8 6 Portugal 1 6 4 0 Greece Denmark 1 2 4 9 1 0 4 7 1 2 7 2 I reland 9 5 4 2000 8 3 4 1 1 9 4 1 0 9 2 Slovakia 1 1 5 8 1 1 2 5 1 0 9 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 5 6 9 8 6 Poland 6 1 8 6 2 1 7 3 5 6 8 6 5 9 4 United Kingdom 1000 5 9 4 6 3 8 I taly 6 1 2 5 8 4 5 8 6 5 4 8 6 1 6 4 0 7 Germ any 1 0 3 4 9 4 4 8 7 7 9 0 7 1 0 1 1 7 1 9 Netherlands 6 0 5 5 8 0 5 7 4 5 7 1 5 6 8 5 5 3 4 7 6 France 0 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

Seasonal boiler efficiency of sales 4.9 million are condensing gas/oil (gas 4.75 & oil 0.15) with • average seasonal space heating efficiency η s 93%, 0.6 million non-condensing gas/oil with η s 75%, • 0.26 million are air-to-water heat pumps with η s 145%, • 0.06 million are ground-source heat pumps with η s 158% • 0.07 million electric boilers with η s 35%. • 94 % ED&EL reg. 90 ED prep. study 2013 2016 ED plan % 2006/’07 81 2014 ED implement % (2015) 2004

Average gas/oil boiler msp 2004-2016 (euros/unit) Eurostat Boiler average boiler msp (euros/unit) 2004-2016 800 € 698 € 724 700 € 643 € 611 600 € 585 500 400 Actual (3-point average) 300 Inflation corrected 200 100 0

CH-boiler uncorrected prices 2 0 0 4 -2 0 1 6 (in euros/ unit) for selected countries, from Eurostat data 1200 France 1100 1 0 4 3 1 0 5 5 Germany 1000 900 United Kingdom 7 3 7 800 7 9 0 Netherlands 700 Poland 6 8 6 600 6 0 6 Italy 5 9 0 500 5 0 2 Slovakia 4 7 2 4 6 0 400 3 8 2 300 200

EU 2016 gas/oil boiler export € 741 m Russia decreasing, China increasing EU2 8 CH-Boiler Exports (in million Euros) Turkey 1 0 0 7 9 8 6 Switzerland 9 2 4 8 9 7 137 Norway 159 98 7 9 7 7 7 5 80 159 7 4 1 Bosnia & H. 74 73 120 105 Belarus 74 97 68 64 58 Canada 186 163 168 Ukraine 151 66 72 160 163 65 147 OTHER 60 73 64 61 United States 272 309 313 132 148 273 Russia 223 148 128 133 China 97 73 51 58 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16

EU 2016 gas/oil boiler import € 360 m Turkey increasing Turkey Switzerland Norway EU2 8 CH-Boiler I m ports (in million Euros) Bosnia & H. Belarus Canada Ukraine 3 6 0 3 4 2 2 9 7 2 9 6 OTHER 2 8 9 2 8 5 2 3 1 United States 269 261 212 202 213 199 153 Russia 50 52 49 52 53 45 49 China 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16

300.0 No CH (local heating + no heating) EU28 Domestic Heating STOCK, in million dwellings Individual dry gas/electric 250.0 244 SOLID fuel boilers District 223 50.1 Collective 195 200.0 ELECTRIC HEAT PUMP CH boilers 49.4 17.1 ELECTRIC CH boilers 6.9 OIL/GAS Jet burner (85-90% oil) 13.7 67.3 27.4 6.4 GAS Floor Standing non-condensing 150.0 25.0 GAS Wall Hung non-condensing 29.7 11.3 GAS Floor Standing condensing 8.9 3.0 30.5 GAS Wall Hung condensing 1.0 100.0 18.3 25.7 0.9 1.2 7.6 22.2 in scope: 143 (58%) 25.7 125 15.1 46.8 0.9 (56%) 50.0 19.2 81 48.6 (41%) 13.0 215 primary dwellings 35.4 29 secondary dwellings 21.9 6.6 0.0 1990 2004 2014 2004 vs 2014 in scope: gas 70  77%, oil 22  15%, heat pump 0.4  1.2%, collective 14  12%, dry 6  7%, no or local 22  21%

EU Boiler stock 2014 (<400 kW) Million units installed Million kW installed (total 139 m) (total 3.94 TW) 14 840 5 residential individual (120 m dwellings) 500 residential collective 3360 (30 m dwellings) 120 non-residential

Boiler unit sales EU28 2004 -2016 80 00 ( source BRG 2017) ED & EL implemented 6977 1 Sept. 2015 7170 7002 70 00 6765 6624 6221 6177 6251 5995 5924 6044 5900 5820 60 00 Heat Pumps to water '0 0 0 units sold 50 00 Electric Boilers Wall Hung Gas Cond Floor Standing Cond 40 00 Wall Hung Gas Non Cond Floor Standing Gas non Cond 30 00 Jet Burner Boilers Total 20 00 10 00 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EU 2016 5.93m boiler sales: gas 5.2m, 0.37m heat pump, 0.3m oil, <0.1m elec boilers.

400% Boiler unit sales trend 2 0 0 4 -2 0 1 6 ( 2 0 0 4 = 1 0 0 % ) 354% 350% 314% gas condensing w h 300% Wall Hung Gas Non Cond 250% heat pum p Wall Hung Gas Cond Floor Standing Gas non Cond 200% gas condensing fs 198% Floor Standing Cond solid fuel 156% Jet Burner Boilers 150% Solid Fuel Boilers electric boiler 100% Electric Boilers 86% Heat Pumps jet burner (90% oil) 50% TOTAL gas non-condensing 33% 11% 2% 0%

United Kingdom 130 46 35 1 641 Italy 74 15 20 772 France 192 21 51 434 Germany 114 8 56 504 Poland 82 34 13 234 Netherlands 41 8 10 355 Spain 21 45 14 230 Romania 35 35 7 151 Belgium 43 11 6 154 Czech Republic 17 14 7 89 Austria 26 5 5 44 New Housing Hungary 8 6 4 64 1st Time Installed Slovakia 12 7 6 30 Ireland 10 4 3 47 Non- Housing Sweden 8 1 5 40 Replacement Croatia 5 6 6 17 Greece 5 6 2 18 Denmark 4 2 27 Finland 6 1 2 15 EU Boiler Sales 2 0 1 4 by End-Use (in '000 units) Lithuania 5 1 2 16 Portugal 7 2 7 Slovenia 2 3 3 9 Bulgaria 4 4 1 3 Latvia 1 1 1 6 Estonia 1 1 1 3 0 50 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0

Market segmentation by end-use End-use 2004 2014 difference New Housing 1.58 0.85 -0.73 1st time users 1.05 0.28 -0.77 Non-housing 0.28 0.26 -0.02 Replacement 4.36 4.90 0.54 7.26 6.30 -0.96 • New Housing: Gas condensing 64% and heat pump boilers 18% of • Non-condensing: Still ¼ of First Time Installation and Replacement in 2014 • Non Housing: Includes floorstanding 16%, oil jet burner 10%, solid fuel 9% and heat pump boilers 10%. • Replacement 78% in 2014, 60% in 2004 • New housing and First-time users biggest losers : -46% and -73%

Technical market segmentation Room-sealed (86%), gas-fired (95%) condensing (71%) combi boiler (71%) • with a fan-assisted premix burner type (68%), electronic ignition (99.9%) and steel or aluminium heat exchanger (>70%) is the dominant type (60- 70%). Switch from conventional (59% in 2004) to fan-assisted premix and low • NOx burners (78% of total in 2014)  much improved emission control Approx. 93% of all oil/gas boilers now have a hot water functionality, • either as combi or with an external cylinder. Average capacity residential gas/oil boiler 27 kW; heat pump 10.3 kW. • Average product life: 24 years. (DE, NO, DK try to force it down, e.g. ban • boilers >30 years and/or oil-fired, but legally difficult)

Heat pumps Outside air  Water 212 k units (avg. 10.1 kW) • Ground source  81 k units (avg. 10.9 kW) • Exhaust air  Water 19 k units (to revisit in Task 4) • Total: 312 k electric units , avg. 10.3 kW Estimate: 6 k gas-fired (GAHP) units Heat pump sales 2004-2014: Ground source stable at 77-81 k. Outside-air 900% growth from 24 to 212k FR (75k, fastest grower), DE(56k), SV(33k) = 60% HP market IT (20k), AT (15k), FI(13k) follow Ground source in SV(25k), DE(16k), FI(11k)