Findings of the Market Study on EE Lighting Carried Out in the Preparatory Phase of EELA Workshop on Energy Efficient Lighting and Appliances in EAC and SADC Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Michael Scholand 11 February 2019
Draft Market Assessment for Review…22 Feb • High-level market assessment covering EAC and SADC • Government, policy, economy, lighting technology, supply- chain and economic analysis • Focus on six countries out of twenty-one • Conclusions and Recommendations • Comments / updates / improvements by 22 February 2
Methodology – Focus on Six Countries • Twenty-one countries across East and Southern Africa • 446 million people • 36% on grid (162 m) • 64% off-grid (284 m)] • Budget and time constraints required to focus on six countries, 35% of population • Madagascar, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe • GDP, Population and GDP/capita were considered 3
Methodology – Research Phase • Literature review – SIDA study; CTCN (DNV GL); ADB; IFC/World Bank; EACREEE; SACREEE; DSM studies • Interviews – government, utilities, private sector, standardization experts (with interview guide) • Interview guides – issued to 21 countries; 11 responses • Data – UN Comtrade; papers/reports • Covering both on-grid and off-grid lighting technologies 4
Methodology - Analysis • Policies – identifying common aspects; regional objectives (e.g., SADC phase-out incandescent) • Technology mix – assess which technologies are on the market, how rapidly is LED entering; price trends • Market barriers to efficient-lighting – what is slowing down efficient lighting? 5A’s: Availability, Awareness, Accessibility, Affordability and/or Acceptance • Prepare economic analysis for each country – on-grid and off-grid, comparing baseline technology with more efficient • Prepare inventory stock model of on-grid lamps – eight years of shipments, rated life and operating hours • Off-grid stock is based on UNEP 2015 study 5
Economic Growth in EAC and SADC • GDP of 21 Countries from 2000 to 2017, current US$ • US$235bn (2000) to US$803bn (2017); CAGR: 7.5% 6
Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions per unit GDP • South Africa - highest emissions, at 1.4 kg CO 2 /US$ GDP • Most are less CO 2 intensive, being 0.2-0.4 kg CO 2 /US$ GDP 7
Regional Electrification Rates….64% People Off -Grid 2010 % 2016 % 2016 % urban 2016 % rural Population On- Population Off- Country electrified electrified electrified electrified Grid Grid Angola 40% 35% 69% 6% 9,750,757 18,108,548 Botswana 45% 55% 69% 32% 1,215,058 994,139 Burundi 5% 10% 35% 7% 1,019,927 9,179,343 Comoros 40% 71% 89% 62% 551,971 225,453 Dem. Rep. Congo 15% 15% 35% 0% 11,429,493 64,767,126 Eswatini 35% 84% 90% 71% 1,107,969 211,042 Kenya 18% 65% 78% 60% 30,703,568 16,532,691 Lesotho 17% 34% 63% 24% 739,379 1,435,266 Madagascar 17% 23% 52% 7% 5,573,840 18,660,248 Malawi 9% 11% 49% 3% 1,933,097 15,640,510 Mauritius 99% 100% 100% 100% 1,262,605 - Mozambique 15% 29% 57% 15% 8,123,100 19,887,591 Namibia 44% 56% 78% 34% 1,358,314 1,067,247 Rwanda 10% 30% 72% 12% 3,488,866 8,140,687 Seychelles 58% 99% 99% 99% 92,485 934 South Africa 83% 86% 87% 83% 47,550,454 7,740,772 South Sudan 0% 1% 4% 0% 118,821 11,763,315 Tanzania 15% 33% 65% 17% 17,780,386 36,099,571 Uganda 9% 19% 23% 19% 7,627,525 32,517,345 Zambia 19% 34% 67% 7% 5,474,200 10,626,387 Zimbabwe 37% 34% 81% 11% 5,364,333 10,413,118 Totals: 70% 43% 162,266,149 284,011,331 8 Sources: Electrification rates are from IEA, 2017. Population data is World Bank, 2018.
Madagascar - Overview • No lamp or luminaire manufacturers; 100% imported • All technologies are offered, LED is entering market • Lighting (0.3 TWh/yr) is 14% of electricity use (2.2 TWh/yr) • Draft law to phase-out incandescent – expected June 2019; draft national EE policy being drafted • Renewable energy products are VAT-free • IEC standards for LED lamps have been adopted • On-grid: payback for LED lamp is 3.5 months; LED saves US$157 over 10 years • Off-grid: solar system payback is between 0.4 to 2.6 years 9
Namibia - Overview • No lamp or luminaire manufacturers; 100% imported • All technologies are offered, LED is entering market • Lighting (0.6 TWh/yr) is 16% of electricity use (3.8 TWh/yr) • Draft National EE policy being drafted; expected in 2020; SADC issued a regional directive to ban incandescent lamps • Suppliers often use SABS standards to assure quality • On-grid: payback for LED lamp is 5.1 months; LED saves US$105 over 10 years • Off-grid: solar system payback is between 0.4 to 2.1 years 10
South Africa - Overview • 43% of regional GDP (SADC and EAC); 55 million people (2 nd largest) • Lighting (25.1 TWh/yr) is 11% of electricity use (228.2 TWh/yr) • Ran EE lighting programmes since the mid 1990’s ( ElektroWISE); banned incandescent lamps in 2014; working on lighting MEPS – NRCS/UNDP • Some domestic luminaire assembly (30%) vs. imports (70%) • Regional hub for wholesale distribution – products come through RSA ports • Many standards - SABS standards to assure quality • New installations – LED • On-grid: payback for LED lamp is 6.1 months; LED saves US$63 over 10 years • Off-grid: solar system payback is between 0.4 to 2.75 years 11
Uganda - Overview • Policies in place for CFLs, LFLs and Ballasts; Energy Efficiency and Conservation Bill in draft • Lighting (0.8 TWh/yr) is 25% of electricity use (3.25 TWh/yr) • Affiliate member of IEC and upgrading this year to full membership • All lamps and luminaires are imported; some small businesses have expressed interest in local assembly, but haven’t started yet • Two Manufacturer Associations that could cover EE lighting • On-grid: payback for LED lamp is 2.2 months; LED saves US$142 over 10 years • Off-grid: solar system payback is between 0.5 to 2 years; • Solar off-grid is 2-5 times cheaper 12
Zambia - Overview • Zambia has a CFL assembly plant in Ndola (utility owned), using imported parts; all other lighting products and equipment are imported • Lighting is 1.4 TWh/yr, or 11.8% of the total national electricity use • Banned incandescent lighting with Statutory Instrument No. 74 of 2016 • LED is rapidly taking off, with ZESCO running a communications strategy and a 3 million lamp trade-in; they have run CFL schemes in the past • On-grid: payback for LED lamp is 3.9 months; LED saves US$90 over 10 years • Off-grid: solar system payback is between 0.7 to 2.5 years • Solar lighting systems are 2-3 times cheaper to own and operate 13
Zimbabwe - Overview • Primarily an import market, has some limited local assembly. All four of the largest importers are bringing in LED products in addition to other lamp types • Banned inefficient lighting products (2016) and required labelling of lighting products (2018) • All lighting technologies, including LEDs are offered in the market; pre-pay meters make customers more sensitive to running costs, boosting LED • Lighting is 1.5 TWh/yr or about 18.4% of national electricity (8 TWh/yr) • On-grid: payback for LED lamp is 5.5 months; LED saves US$88 over 10 years • Off-grid: solar system payback is between 0.1 and 2.0 years, highly cost-effective 14
Summary of Findings • Electrical grid stability is a problem in several countries; blackout / brownouts • Some utilities are implementing demand side management • Lighting is so important that fuel-based lighting is used even though it comes with such a high social and economic cost • Lighting markets are opening up to LED lighting; both on-grid and off-grid LED technology are highly cost-effective • Quality of LED lighting products is a concern – premature failures cited • Many policies and programmes to promote energy-efficient lighting, but lack a coordinated / harmonised approach • Some manufacturer associations, but lack organisation amongst energy-efficiency providers • Opportunity to adopt policies now and develop along a more sustainable pathway 15
Given that, what are some potential Interventions? Fundamentals 1. Interlaboratory Comparison – regional laboratories (initially) 2. Legislative Framework – for regulating products 3. Participate in Regional Energy-Efficiency Centres (EACREEE / SACEEE) Market-Pull 4. Green Procurement Specification – institutions buy efficient 5. ESCO Funding Scheme – set-up finance and incentives 6. Electric Utility Engagement – raise awareness, conduct DSM 7. Efficient Business Development – green tech incubator Market Transformation 8. Quality and Performance Regulations – product regulations, lighting 9. Market Surveillance – enforce the regulations 16
Recommend
More recommend
