NEWS For our environment PRESS RELEASES Does the Money Match the Targets? - Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 7 th of December 2016 – Brussels, Belgium Martin Lange German Environment Agency, Section I 3.2 „Pollution Abatement and Energy Saving in Transport“
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Motivation – UBA-study: Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country • Goal: Reducing GHG emissions across all sectors by 95 % until 2050 compared to 1990 Emissions in mt CO 2eq 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1990 2010 GHG- Energy Agriculture neutral Transport LULUCF Germany Industry Waste 2050 Source : UBA 2014 Link to Study 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 2
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Ambitious climate protection targets in transport require a general transition in the sector Example: Final energy GHG-emissions GHG-neutral demand (relative to: Germany in (relative to: 2005) 1990) 2050 Avoid transport Avoid transport General + Shift transport + Shift transport transition + Improve + Improve in efficiency efficiency transport -50% -50% Electric vehicles + (incl. OC-hybrid Energy trucks) Alternative drives and GHG-neutral transition in -80% -80% energy supply transport options -95% -95% -100% -100% 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 3
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Post-fossil energy supply options: various suitable pathways Conventional drives (Internal Combusion engine) Gaseous and Gaseous and liquid liquid electricity- Biofuels based hydrocarbons Energy transition in transport Electric vehicles and renewable Fuel cell electricity vehicles that use (incl. off-vehicle electricity- charging hybrids based hydrogen and overhead caternary trucks) Alternative drives 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 4
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Working principle of Power to Gas/Liquid (PtG/PtL) 5 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements On the study: items included and some main assumptions STUDIED ITEMS: • Adaptation at vehicles & energy-supply infrastructure • Costs for energy carrier are also approximated • Final energy demands of sector and economic costs for transition to 2050 in Germany THINGS THAT ARE THE SAME IN THE SCENARIOS: • Transport performance for different means of transport • overall number vehicles • improvements of efficiency and production costs of vehicles and energy carriers “Determining an expert strategy for the energy AGGREGATION FOR MEANS OF ROAD-TRANSPORT supply of the transport • Short haul transport sector up to 2050” (2-wheeler, light vehicles, trucks in short-haul traffic) Link (German only) • Long haul transport Study by Oeko-Institut; (trucks and busses in long-haul traffic) INFRAS AG and DVGW-EBI for UBA. 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 6
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Four energy supply scenarios that span a wide solution space and are carbon neutral in 2050 Partial electrification of LDV and short haul trucks* + further electrification (LDV, trucks) E+ + el. busses + Overhead caternary hybrid trucks Liq+ Carbon + further use of liquid hydrocarbons neutral today transport in Germany CH 4 + + change to gaseous hydrocarbons when possible in 2050 H 2 + + change to hydrogen when possible + substitution of fossil fuels by electricity-based ones: PtG/PtL (Source: Oeko-Institut/ * LNG/PtG-CH 4 partially substitutes heavy oil in shipping INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 7
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks) Differential economic costs (bill. € 2010 ) 800 (Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) Strong electrification 700 Liquid fuels (PtL) 600 Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH 4 ) Hydrogen (PtG-H 2 ) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Energy supply Gas stations & Vehicles Sum Energy supply Gas stations & Vehicles Sum infrastructure charging points E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+ 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 8
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks) Differential economic costs (bill. € 2010 ) 180 (Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) Strong electrification 160 Liquid fuels (PtL) 140 Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH 4 ) 120 Hydrogen (PtG-H 2 ) 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 - 2016 - 2021 - 2026 - 2031 - 2036 - 2041 - 2046 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+ 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 9
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Road: long haul transport (trucks/busses) Differential economic costs (bill. € 2010 ) 350 (Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) Strong electrification 300 Liquid fuels (PtL) Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH 4 ) 250 Hydrogen (PtG-H 2 ) 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 Energy supply Gas stations & Vehicles Sum caternary E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+ 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 10
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Differential economic costs for infrastructure for energy supply: short haul transport #1: Costs of energy supply infrastructure are often much smaller than costs for vehicles and for the supply of energy. E+ Liq+ H 2 + Sum: 243,2 billion € 2010 Sum: 334,7 billion € 2010 Sum: 738,3 billion € 2010 Energy supply Gas stations & Vehicles charging points (Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 11
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Importance of infrastructure for electricity/fuel production #2: Costs of energy supply structures are significant but even larger blocks of infrastructure costs are „hidden“ in production/supply of fuels and electricity. Renewable electricity (RE) and GHG-neutral fuels Costs are for: 1) RE generation 2) productions sites for carbon neutral fuels from electricity 3) preparation of products for transport, transport to and distribution in Germany 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 12
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Road – long haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification #3: Overhead caternary trucks are energy and cost efficient but there are barriers to a market entry. Decision whether to build the system should be made as soon as possible and in accordance with climate targets. (Caternary and trucks) vs. Energy supply 10 Differential costs of E+ vs Liq+ www.siemens.com/presse 0 (bill. € 2010 ) -10 -20 To benefit from potential savings: -30 • a positive decision is necessary soon -40 • lead time to build up infrastructure 2021- 2026- 2031- 2036- 2041- 2046- 1 2 3 4 5 6 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 should be taken into account • delayed phase-in of trucks should Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Energy supply also be considered (Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 13
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements Road – short haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification #4: Charging infrastructure for battery-electric and off-vehicle charging hybrid-electric vehicles has to be build up, as the electrification in short haul transport is an efficient and effective way to achieve a carbon neutral transport. Number of points for fast-charging 35 35 Number of charing points Millions Thousands 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Liq+ Liq+ Liq+ Liq+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year / Scenario (Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/ home company public fast-charging DVGW-EBI 2016) 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 14
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