CANADIAN NADIAN APARTME RTMENT NT INV NVESTME ESTMENT NT CON ONFE FERE RENCE NCE 2015 Ross Moore September 10 th 2015 CBRE Limited
WELCOME TO CANADA’S MOST DULL/STABLE MARKET! Vacancy 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015 10-Yr Avg. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2015. 2
MULT MU LTI-FA FAMILY MILY VACANCY, NCY, MI MID-YEA YEAR R 2015 15 240 6% 200 5% 160 4% Vacancy Rate (%) 120 3% Y-o-Y Change (bps) 80 2% 40 1% 0 0% (40) (1%) (80) (2%) Calgary Edmonton Montreal Winnipeg London Halifax Toronto Vancouver Ottawa Waterloo Y-o-Y Vacancy Rate Change Vacancy Rate Source: CBRE Research, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2015. 3
High Park Village Buildings 1, 3, 5 & 7 Boardwalk Windsor Portfolio High Park Village Buildings 2, 4 & 6 GWL Realty Advisors (50%) Skyline Apartment REIT CPPIB (60%) Market: Windsor Market: Toronto Market: Toronto Price: $136,200,000 Price: $124,654,198 Price: $104,574,797 Number of Units: 1,625 Number of Units: 990 Number of Units: 750 Price Per Unit: $83,815 Price Per Unit: $251,826 Price Per Unit: $232,388 Projected September 10, 2015 Transaction Date: April 30, 2015 Transaction Date: June 30, 2015 Transaction Date: Source: RealNet, Q2 2015. 4
Langara Gardens Airdrie Place Apartments Kingsclub (33%) Concert Properties Ltd. Private Investor CAPREIT Market: Vancouver Market: Calgary Market: Toronto Price: $101,857,500 Price: $64,285,000 Price: $60,300,000 Number of Units: 621 Number of Units: 300 Number of Units: 506 Price Per Unit: $328,043 Price Per Unit: $214,283 Price Per Unit: $322,978 Transaction Date: Jan. 9, 2015 Transaction Date: Jan. 6, 2015 Announced Date: July 2015 Source: RealNet, Q2 2015. 5
50 Spadina Rd. & 35 Walmer Rd. The Laurier 111 Lawton Boulevard Starlight Properties Minto Inc. Akelius Canada Ltd. Market: Toronto Market: Calgary Market: Toronto Price: $59,000,000 Price: $46,000,000 Price: $50,000,000 Number of Units: 229 Number of Units: 144 Number of Units: 152 Price Per Unit: $257,642 Price Per Unit: $347,222 Price Per Unit: $302,961 Transaction Date: Jan. 12, 2015 Transaction Date: March 25, 2015 Transaction Date: August 10, 2015 Source: RealNet, Q2 2015. 6
King’s Heights Apartments Hamilton House The Brock Skyline Apartment REIT InterRent REIT Homestead Land Holdings Ltd. Market: Calgary Market: Montreal Market: Burlington Price: $41,000,000 Price: $32,400,000 Price: $39,850,000 Number of Units: 192 Number of Units: 280 Number of Units: 115 Price Per Unit: $213,542 Price Per Unit: $116,129 Price Per Unit: $346,552 Transaction Date: Feb. 17, 2015 Transaction Date: March 11, 2015 Transaction Date: June 11, 2015 Source: RealNet, Q2 2015. 7
CANADIAN MULTI-RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT VOLUME ($M) – BY MARKET Market et 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 H1 2015 Vancouver ouver 640.3 288.6 647.0 414.5 450.1 815.1 440.9 533.0 361.0 Calgar lgary y 556.0 269.3 90.5 112.1 125.8 486.3 184.4 202.4 137.5 Edmon onton ton 659.0 202.0 139.0 160.4 157.0 121.7 317.8 269.5 191.6 Toronto to 832.0 873.9 453.1 774.0 1,066.8 1,563.3 1,585.2 1,176.5 847.2 Ottaw awa a 240.0 163.0 228.0 154.0 226.2 768.3 397.5 397.3 183.3 Montre real al 846.2 946.0 605.0 836.1 900.0 1,354.9 829.1 813.4 341.2 Halifax ifax 161.0 41.0 44.0 50.2 210.1 161.3 44.3 121.0 6.3 Nation tional al 4,404 04.3 .3 3,178 78.8 .8 2,430 30.6 .6 2,887 87.3 .3 3,569 69.9 .9 6,023 23.3 .3 4,166 66.8 .8 3,666 66.8 .8 2,173 73.7 .7 Source: CBRE Limited, RealNet Canada, Collette Plante, JLR Land Titles Solutions, Q2 2015. 8
CANADIAN MULTI-RESIDENTIAL PURCHASER PROFILE – ALL TRANSACTIONS Private Investor – Canadian REIT/REOC Foreign Investor Pension Fund Institution Private Equity 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015 Source: CBRE Limited, RealNet Canada, Collette Plante, JLR Land Titles Solutions, Q2 2015. 9
CANADA’S ACTIVE PENSION FUNDS IN REAL ESTATE Select Canadian Pension Funds Pension Fund Net Assets CAD ( Billion ) Real Estate Assets CAD ( Billion ) CPPIB - Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board $264.6 $30.3 Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec /Ivanhoe Cambridge $225.9 $22.9 Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan/Cadillac Fairview Corp. $154.5 $26.6 bcIMC - British Columbia Investment Management Corporation $114.0 $16.3 PSP - Public Sector Pension Investment Board $93.7 $12.8 OMERS/Oxford Properties Group $72.1 $12.0 AIMco - Alberta Investment Management Corporation $74.7 $9.2 HOOPP - Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan $60.8 $7.7 Source: Various Annual Reports, 2015 . 10
FOR CONSIDERATION………. • Demand drivers - Immigration - “We’re becoming a multi - housing society” - And we’re becoming more urban - Housing affordability - Demographics • Make-up of the Canadian Apartment market - Where and what • And now for some construction • And rents 11
IMMI IM MIGR GRATIO ATION: N: FUELS DEMA MAND ND 140 (000’s) Forecast* 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Calgary Vancouver Toronto Montreal Source: Conference Board of Canada, Q2 2015. 12
(000’s) Source: The Conference Board of Canada, Q2 2015. 110 130 150 30 50 70 90 CANADA MOVING TOWARDS MULTI-RESIDENTIAL LIVING Q2 2001 Q4 2001 Q2 2002 Q4 2002 Q2 2003 Q4 2003 Q2 2004 Q4 2004 Housing Starts, Multiples Q2 2005 Q4 2005 Q2 2006 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 13 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2008 Housing Starts, Singles Q2 2009 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015
2010-2015 Population Change URBAN AN & S & SUBURBA URBAN GROWTH OWTH 25% 22.1% 20% 17.7% 15% 15.2% 13.0% 11.6% 10% 7.0% 6.6% 5% 5.5% 0% Toronto Calgary Montreal Vancouver Urban Suburban * Urban defined as 2 km radius from city centre. Source: Environics Analytics, 2015. 14
AFF FFOR ORDABILITY DABILITY GAP CON ONTINUE TINUES S TO O WI WIDE DEN 350 $453,560 300 250 Index = 100 (1992) $41,944 200 $1,107 150 100 50 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Q2 2015 National Avg. Home Price National Avg. 2-Bdrm Monthly Rent Personal Income Per Capita Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Conference Board of Canada, Q2 2015. 15
DEMOGR DE MOGRAPH APHIC IC TRENDS ENDS IN IN CANADA DA Population Growth (000’s) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Age 20 - 34 Age 65+ Source: CBRE Research, Statistics Canada, 2015. 16
CANADIAN APARTMENT DISTRIBUTION (UNITS) Millions 600,000 9.0 500,000 7.5 400,000 6.0 300,000 4.5 200,000 3.0 100,000 1.5 0 0.0 Montreal Toronto Vancouver Edmonton Ottawa Winnipeg Halifax Calgary Inventory (L) Population (R) Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Conference Board of Canada, 2015. 17
PERCENTAGE OF UNITS RENTED – CMA’S 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Montreal Vancouver London Ottawa Winnipeg Toronto Edmonton Waterloo Halifax Calgary Region Total Units Rented Apartment Units Rented Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, 2015. 18
CANADIAN APARTMENT INVENTORY BY AGE Less than 15 Years 15 - 35 Years 36 - 55 Years Greater than 55 Years 2001/2015 7% 28% 14% 1980/2000 Pre - 1960 1960/1979 51% Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, June 2015. 19
20
CANADIAN APARTMENT INVENTORY BY AGE Less than 15 Years 15 - 35 Years 36 - 55 Years Greater than 55 Years 2001/2015 7% 28% 14% 1980/2000 Pre - 1960 1960/1979 51% Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, June 2015. 21
MULT MU LTI-FA FAMILY MILY UNIT IT STARTS RTS 2015 15-YTD YTD JU JUNE 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Toronto Vancouver Montreal Edmonton Calgary Ottawa Rental 875 1,571 2,155 1,329 300 121 Condominium 11,269 4,764 2,681 2,607 2,577 620 Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, June 2015. 22
JUST JU T HO HOW W BIG IG IS IS THE HE CON ONDO DO RENTAL TAL UNIV IVERSE ERSE? Condo Rental Universe as % of Purpose Built Rentals 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Vancouver Calgary GTA Edmonton Ottawa Montreal Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2015. 23
PURPOSE OSE-BU BUILT ILT RENTA NTAL L CON ONSTRUCTION STRUCTION Units Started % of Inventory 2,500 2.5% 2,000 2.0% 1,500 1.5% 1,000 1.0% 500 0.5% 0 0.0% Montreal Vancouver Edmonton Toronto Calgary Ottawa H1 2014 Starts H1 2015 Starts % of Inventory H1 2014 % of Inventory H1 2015 Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, H1 2015. 24
Recommend
More recommend
