Can South Africa meet its Paris Agreement targets? One Million Climate Jobs Cape Town, Oct 2019 James Reeler (WWF-SA)
Carbon tax R120/t CO 2 2
Carbon tax R120/t CO 2 (on only 5-10%) 5-10% carbon offset 5% carbon budget compliance 5% above-average performance 10% trade exposure 10% process/fugitive emissions R120/t CO 2 60% basic allowance 3
SA’s Mitigation System (GHG/DNA economics) Implementation of carbon tax, and agreement that this will be aligned with the mitigation system through use of the tax to enforce compliance with the budgets Limiting carbon budgets to only cover Scope 1 (or direct) emissions and not Scope 2 (indirect) emissions Exclusion of carbon trading from the system 4
Sectoral emission targets Waste ?? Land use and forestry DEFF/ DRD Agriculture DoA Buildings DPubWorks/DTI Industry DTI Transport DoT Liquid fuels DME Electricity generation 5
Sectoral emission targets (indicative process) 2020-2025 2026-2030 2030-2035 Waste Land use and forestry Waste Waste Agriculture Land use and forestry Land use and forestry Agriculture Buildings Agriculture Buildings Industry Buildings Industry Industry Transport Transport Transport Liquid fuels Liquid fuels Liquid fuels Electricity generation Electricity generation Electricity generation 6
Sectoral emission targets to budgets Reserve Newcomers Company E Company D Company C Company B Industry SET (administered by DTI) Company A 7
Carbon budgets (post-2020) Budget exceedance (Full penalty tax Allocated budget @R120) Carbon budget (grandfathered allowance) Tax with allowances (@R6-R48) 8
What is still missing? • Climate Bill needed to implement SETs/budgets • Present to cabinet in Dec 2019? • Must be complete by 2020 for articulations • Potential for many of the elements to be integrated under NEM:AQA • Drive ambition in all government departments • IRP must reflect greater shift • Stronger carbon price signal (second phase) • DEFF waiting for mandate from NPC • DoE? 9
CAN SA MEET ITS PARIS AGREEMENT OBLIGATIONS? 10
YES. • The target is conservative, and only commits to 2030 • PPD Peak, plateau and decline 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PPD 11
Will we? 2014 MPA National Emissions Projections (MtCO 2 e) 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PPD WOM WEM WAM-100% 12
Will we? MPA Update GHG Emissions Projections (MtCO 2 e) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PPD-Lower PPD WOM WEM WAM 13
With All Measures trajectory (ktCO 2 e) 2000 2030 2050 Energy 329,668 339,196 (103%) 261,418 (79%) IPPU 34,529 42,230 (122%) 54,904 (159%) Waste 4,844 12,746 (263%) 19,349 (399%) AFOLU 28,713 29,002 (101%) 42,638 (148%) Total 100% 106% 95% 14
Ambition? 1.5°C needs net zero by 2050 15
What does ambition look like? Oyewo, A.S., Aghahosseini, A., Ram, M., Lohrmann, A. & Breyer, C. 2019. Pathway towards achieving 100% renewable electricity by 2050 for South Africa. Solar Energy . 191:549–565. DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2019.09.039. “Best policy” scenario is 100% RE by 2050 at 25% lower cost (50% if you include carbon costs) 16
What does ambition look like? JOBS? “Best policy” – 100% RE “Coal policy” – Continued coal 2050 zero emissions electricity sector goal is achievable in line with just transition. 17
Thank you www.wwf.org jreeler@wwf.org.za
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