Cameron Village: Then & Now Case Study May 17, 2017 Overview - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cameron Village: Then & Now Case Study May 17, 2017

Overview • Growth & Density: Comparing 2006 & 2016 – What’s happened to the population, parking, traffic, home sale values, rental rates, retail sales, retail lease rates, retail mix, office rents/square footage, quality of life? • Why 2006? – Before apartment growth & recession

Study Area

Population Area 2006 2016 % Growth 9% Cameron Village 3,400 3,700 Not surprising with Study Area mature market area Raleigh 348,000 438,000 25% But let’s go back... Raleigh’s population was 65,679 in 1950 and Cameron Village had just opened.

History: A True ULI Story

History: A True ULI Story

History: A True ULI Story

History: A True ULI Story

Case Study: 2006 – 2016

Home Values Area 2006 2016 % ∆ Cameron Transactions: 45 Transactions: 47 4% Village Median Sales Price: $281,884 Median Sales Price: $363,382 29% Per SF: $178.82 Per SF: $215.83 21% Average SF: 1,508 Average SF: 1,642 9% Days on Market: 46 Days on Market: 37 -20% Raleigh Transactions: 4,258 Transactions: 4,038 -5% Median Sales Price: $246,210 Median Sales Price: $315,225 28% Per SF: $128.97 Per SF: $154.28 20% Average SF: 1,889 Average SF: 2,006 6% Days on Market: 57 Days on Market: 33 -42% CV area homes 39% higher per CV area homes 40% higher per SF than Raleigh as whole. SF than Raleigh as whole. Source: MLS

New Multifamily in Study Area since 2005 April 2017 Date April 2017 Complex # of Units Effective Opened Vacancy Rents/SF Oberlin Court 2005 370 $1.18 6% Spring 401 Oberlin 244 $1.56 7% 2014 The Berkshire Fall 2014 282 $1.61 8% 616 at the January 207 $1.77 91% Village 2017 Source: Costar

Multi-Family Class A Average Rent/Unit Average Area Rent/Unit Cameron Village Study Area (April $1,547 2017 – Effective Rent) Wake County (2016 – Asking Rent) $1,202 Percentage higher Rent in Cameron 29% Village than Wake County Source: Costar

Class A Multifamily Sub-Market Comparisons Vacancy Rate Rent per SF Sub Market # of Units April 2017 April 2017 Crabtree 817 17.9 $1.24 North Hills 1,525 13% $1.55 Trader Joe’s 1,021 19.3% $1.27 Downtown 2,452 12.1% $1.75 Cameron Village 1,103 22.7%* $1.47 • Class A projects completed after 2000 * Mostly due to 616 at the Village; without 616, vacancy is 7%. Minimum community size is 50 units • Source: Costar; Analysis: Marcus Jackson, Trademark Properties •

Office Area 2006 2016 % ∆ Cameron Number of Office Buildings: 14 Number of Office Buildings: 16 7% Village Rentable SF: 461,253 Rentable SF: 452,756 -6% Annual Average Rent/SF: $16.74 Annual Average Rent/SF: $21.37 28% Vacancy Rate: 19% Vacancy Rate: 7% -63% Raleigh Rentable SF: 23,476,765 Rentable SF: 52,213,768 122% Annual Average Rent/SF: $21.62 Annual Average Rent/SF: $26.05 20% Vacancy Rate: 13.12% Vacancy Rate: 14.42% 10% CV Rents/SF are 23% lower than CV Rents/SF are 18% lower than Raleigh Rents/SF Raleigh Rents/SF ( older building CV Vacancy is 45% higher than stock) although rents increased at Raleigh faster rate than in Raleigh. CV Vacancy is 52% lower than Raleigh Source: SPACE

Office: Lost & Added Since 2006 Lost Office Built RSF Rate Reason Oberlin Place, 616 Oberlin 1985 28,000 $17.00 Demolished for 616 at the Village 1300 St. Mary’s 1984 39,396 $14.00 Conversion to Condo 400 Oberlin Rd 1953 14,869 $13.50 Demolished for Berkshire 401 Oberlin Rd 1957 57,394 $16.50 Demolished for 401 Oberlin Apts Ballentine Building, 410 Oberlin 1960 10,000 $13.50 Demolished for Berkshire Added Office * Built RSF Rate 1122 Oberlin 1992 24,617 $23.95 Junior League Building 2010 27,640 $19.50 1033 Wade 2003 27,402 $21.00 1720 Hillsborough 1968 18,222 $14.50 Total Net Loss since 2006: 815 Oberlin 2016 12,729 $23.00 (8,497) 615 Oberlin 1965 18,792 $17.50 * including rehabs

Cameron Village Retail Center Cameron Village Parking Gross Leasable Area 557,936 SF Number of Parking Spaces 1999 Parking Ratio per 1000 SF 3.6 Spaces Leasable Area Parking Ratio 1/279 SF Average Commercial Tenure Study Area Cameron Village Core Area 10.19 Years 14.32 Years Average Parking Ratios National Retailers 5 or 1/200 SF Retail Center 4-4.5 or 1/222-250 SF ULI Suggests 2.9 – 3.2 or 1/312-344 SF

Cameron Village Retail: 2006 – 2016 Data Pts 2007 2016 Takeaways Store Mix Grocery/Drug: 117,213 Grocery/Drug: 117,213 SF Restaurants: 116% ↑ Restaurant (7): 30,840 SF Restaurant (19): 66,781 SF Library: ↑ 36,000 Library: 36,000 SF Retail: 50 storefronts Office / Service: 12 Store Lease Rates Average rents increased 40% 40% ↑ Sales/SF Grocery: $526/SF Grocery: $636/SF Grocery: 21% ↑ Restaurants: $380/SF Restaurants: $460/SF Restaurants: 21% ↑ Non Food Retail: $265/SF Non Food Retail: $307/SF Non Food Retail: 16% ↑ Total Reporting Avg.: $316/SF Total Reporting Avg.: $413/SF Total Reporting Avg.: 31% ↑ Source: Regency Centers

Cameron Village vs. Average Retail Regency Raleigh Data Pts Takeaways Cameron Village Retail Portfolio Avg. Parking Ratio 3.6 (excludes adjoining Typical Regency Asset: 4.5 Pedestrian Overlay (per 1000 SF of street & residential garage allows lower parking leasable area) parking) ratio Shopper 70% female between ages Demographics 15 – 65 Sales/SF Average: $413/SF Regency Raleigh Portfolio Non Grocery retail sales Average: $383/SF @ Cameron represent 65% of total sales vs. 32% in Regency Raleigh Portfolio • Source: Regency Centers

Cameron Village Property Tax $1,000 Millions $900 Cameron Village $800 $700 $600 Building Value $500 Land Value $400 Total Value $300 $200 $100 $- 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 $70,000 Millions $60,000 $50,000 Raleigh Building Value $40,000 Land Value $30,000 Total Value $20,000 $10,000 $- 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 • Pre-recession citywide value increases at a greater rate than Cameron Village 2000 – 2008 Post recession Cameron Village value increases at a greater rate than citywide 2008 – 2016 • Overall Cameron Village value increases at a greater rate than citywide: 35.8% vs. 14.5%, 2012 to 2016 •

Clark & Oberlin Traffic Trends AM Peak PM Peak EB Clark WB Clark NB Oberlin SB Oberlin EB Clark WB Clark NB Oberlin SB Oberlin 700 900 800 600 700 500 600 Vehicles Per Hour Vehicles Per Hour 400 500 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Date Date • AM Peak: 2% decrease since 2008 PM Peak: 37% increase since 2008 •

Cameron & Woodburn Traffic Trends AM Peak PM Peak EB Cameron WB Cameron NB Woodburn SB Woodburn EB Cameron WB Cameron NB Woodburn SB Woodburn 300 400 350 250 300 200 Vehicles Per Hour Vehicles Per Hour 250 150 200 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Date Date • AM Peak: 4% increase since 2004 but 50% decrease since 2008 PM Peak: 7% increase since 2004 but 4% decrease between 2008 •

Peace & St. Marys Traffic Trends AM Peak PM Peak EB Peace WB Peace NB St Marys SB St Marys EB Peace WB Peace NB St Marys SB St Marys 600 1000 900 500 800 700 400 Vehicles Per Hour Vehicles Per Hour 600 300 500 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Date Date • AM Peak: 3% decrease since 2008 PM Peak: 31% increase since 2008 •

Traffic Operations Map

Transit Boardings Boardings and Alightings 3 Year Average 350.00 Boardings Alightings 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00

Oberlin Village • 2 parallel processes: • National Register Historic District – City updating National Register Study Report – Raleigh Historic Development Commission will consider; make recommendation to Council – Council’s action forwarded to State Historic Preservation Office for review and recommendation • Historic Overlay District – Neighbors and residents asked Council to initiate rezoning – Neighbors collecting signatures from at least half of property owners to indicate support

Quality of Life Survey: Targeted Facebook Outreach 14,044 14, 044 TA TARGETED VIEWS 3, 3,482 482 VIEWERS VI RS 126 126 RE RESPONS NSES

Quality of Life Survey: Targeted WRAL Embedded Surveys 7, 7,726 726 TA TARGETED VIEWS 2, 2,134 134 VIEWERS VI RS 93 93 RE RESPONS NSES

Quality of Life Survey: Sample

Quality of Life Survey: Rent vs. Own

Quality of Life Survey: How long have you lived here?

Quality of Life Survey: Do you like living in Cameron Village? Renters Owners

Quality of Life Survey: What do you like about living here? 62 Comments Proximity Variety of Retail Convenience Walkability Safety People Streetscape

Quality of Life Survey: What do you not like? 63 Comments Traffic Parking Expensive Construction Noise Pedestrian Access Hours

Quality of Life Survey: Has your quality of life changed in the past five years? Renters Owners