Cam ambodia odia Voter er Reg egis istr try y Audi udit t 20 2013 Phnom Penh, 21 March 2013 Supported by:
Pr Prese esenta ntati tion on Ou Outl tlin ine Introduction Methodology & Design of the Audit VRA Management & Process Election Data Analysis: Overview of the 2012 Voter Registry & List of the Polling Stations Field Audit findings on the quality of the voter registry: Comprehensiveness : registration gap, does the voter registry contain 1. all eligible voters? Accuracy : the completeness of the information of voter particulars and 2. the existence of duplicate records Currency (Validity) : is the information in the voter registry up-to-date 3. and does it contain valid records? Voter behavior & opinion which may influence the registry Conclusions & Recommendations
Introduction
The e im impor orta tance nce of of voter er reg egis istr trat ation ion Voter registration is a fundamental part of the election process – voter registry is the key to franchise – and thus should be checked for accuracy and validity. The maintenance and upkeep of a voter registry can be particularly challenging in countries with insufficient records, transient populations or weak infrastructure. Voter registries are susceptible to manipulation for electoral advantage. Inaccurate voter registries have led to numerous post-election conflicts in elections held around the world and have disenfranchised many eligible voters.
Rem emem ember er Voter registration is not perfect. Every voter registration exercise will result in some eligible voters still being disenfranchised. However, voter registration provides important and necessary safeguards to ensure that eligible voters will be able to vote.
Pu Purpose rpose of of th the au e audi dit To address concerns raised in regard to the quality of the voter registry through the undertaking of an independent audit To ascertain the quality improvements made to the registry by the recently concluded voter update and clean up exercise To build public confidence in the electoral process
Wh What at is is a V a Voter er Reg egis istr try y Audi udit ( t (VRA RA)? )? A scientific, systematic, and independent assessment of the voter registry using a specific statistical methodology VRA is scientific and emphasizes facts, and NOT about perceptions/ opinions. A VRA is a method that is used by independent election observers around the world and has been proven reliable and accurate internationally
A VRA cannot… Register voters Speculate about causes or opinions. VRA is scientific and emphasizes facts. Verify whether citizen identification documents were handed out correctly Analyze the quality of elections on election day
Methodology & Design of Audit
What t is th s the e 2013 3 Voter er Reg egistr stry y Audi udit t (VR VRA) ) meth method odology? ology? Electoral Data Analysis (Partial Computer Audit): 1. to assess how current or updated the registry was, a demographic a) comparison was made between the voter registry and current census population projection figures obtained from NEC & the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) to make general analysis on the 2012 voter registry and the list of polling b) stations which will be used in 2013 general elections Statistically rigorous two-way field test: 2. List to People to ensure that every name on the voter registry is that a. of an actual person who is eligible to vote and that his/ her information is correct, as well as deletion list to people test to check whether the deletions records were valid. People to List to determine if there are people who are eligible to b. vote and/ or who appear to have attempted to register to vote, but whose names are absent from the voter registry and to ensure their particulars are correct.
Three ee ma main in crit iteria eria for evaluatin luating g th the v e voter er reg egistr stry: y: Comprehensiveness/Completeness: assess what 1. proportion of eligible voters is included on the voter registry (People to List test) Currency (Validity): evaluate whether the information in 2. the voter registry is updated in timely fashion (List to People test – by checking the validity of the names on the registry) Accuracy: measure the rate of error in the data entered for 3. individual voters (Both tests)
Sampling process… Sample Sampling frame Population of interest Inference
Sur urvey y Des Desig ign Sampling: a statistically representative random sample (nationwide, urban-rural, gender) Total observers: more than 450 observers were trained and deployed to do face-to-face interviews Data collection: February 5-8, 2013 and February 16-19, 2013 using structured tracking questionnaires Coverage area: 24 provinces, 176 districts, 414 communes, 830 villages and reached both urban and rural areas People to List List to People Population Voting age population in Cambodia a) Registered voters in the 2012 voter registry (for the 2013 elections) b) People in the 2012 deletion list Respondents 2,472 individuals of eligible voting 1,656 voters from the 2012 voter registry + 765 age voters from the deletion list Margin of ± 2.0% margin of error and 95% ± 2.5% margin of error and 95% level of Error level of confidence confidence , ± 3.5% margin of error for deletion list
Sam ampli ling ng Al Alloca ocati tion on of of Com ommu munes nes
Res espondent pondent sel electi ection on List st to P o Peo eople ple A computer program A computer program The trained selected randomly: selected randomly one observer went 415 communes & a. 4 voters from polling station in each to the location Villages selected the list of PS village & the deletion list using a statistically b. 2 people from associated with the selected representative the deletion list location sample Successfully verified, met and interviewed the respondents Can’t met the respondent in person - Talked & received information Observer met with the Observer would on the respondent’s Confirm the respondent’s village chief to confirm attempt to find & whereabouts from relatives, the location whereabouts meet the selected neighbor or village chief respondents If the selected respondent refused to be interviewed, we randomly identified a replacement
Res espondent pondent sel electi ection on Peo eople ple to L o List st The trained Observer met with the observer went Observer selected the village chief to confirm to the location sampling start point In the selected 415 the location of village communes, 415 additional villages selected using a statistically representative sample Interview the Select randomly a Select four Two quota respondents respondent respondent within each households • Disabled eligible voters Interval - Every 10th household using a ―lucky • 18 years old or turning house in rural areas and draw‖ 18 before election day every 20th house in • Recently moved to the urban areas village; • Recently died Check to the registry
Li Limi mita tati tion ons of s of au audi dit Voter registry including the deletion list used for this audit is the 2012 National Voter Registry and the 2012 Deletion List made available for us as of December 31, 2012. Therefore, any changes to the register made after this date are not taken into account by this audit report. The NIS figure of the eligible voting age population used to assess how current or up to date the voter registry is a projection made by the NIS, taking into consideration migration, mortality rate, etc., which means that the figure also contains a margin of error which is yet to be established. Because we don’t have access to the whole voter registry in an analyzable format : The registration status was checked only in the location we found the respondents and the location information given by the respondents We can’t do analysis on the duplication rate since we only can check whether the respondents are still registered in the previous address and not the whole registry
VRA RA Man anag ageme ement nt & Pr & Proc ocess ess
VRA RA Man anag agement ement Str truc ucture ture NICFEC VRA Data CAS and NDI Quality Collection Control NICFEC Executive Director CAS and NDI Technical Staff and Master Trainers VRA Project Coordinator 24 NICFEC Provincial Coordinators 52 CAS Supervisors assisting and 414 Interviewers overseeing work of 414 NICFEC interviewers 6 CAS and 6 NDI Auditors conducting 4,893 VRA Respondents parallel interviews of sample of respondents
Recommend
More recommend
