California Framework for Grid Value of Vehicle Grid Integration (VGI) Presentation to VGI Working Group April 12, 2019 Eric Cutter Brian Conlon Oliver Garnett Jun Zhang Nancy Ryan
VGI is crucial for low carbon pathways Transportation is first, new High Electrification with No Hydrogen Scenario flexible load in pathways portfolio… California PATHWAYS …establishing business models for flexible building loads to follow… Wind Rooftop PV …enabling increase in low Solar carbon electricity 14
California VGI Grid Value Framework CPUC IRP CPUC IRP CPUC IRP Market Prices Portfolios Portfolio w/ VGI 1. Grid Value (Demand) VGI Market Size 2. VGI Potential (Supply) 3. VGI Market VGI Use Case Revenue EV Fleet 15
1. Grid Value (Demand) 16
Start with CPUC Integrated Resource Plan Least-Cost Planning Scenarios High Electrification with No Hydrogen Scenario to meet GHG target Utility Scale Solar California PATHWAYS Generation (TWh) Wind Solar Energy Storage Regionalization and EIM Baseline System Baseline Storage Baseline Cost (2016 $M) Build (MW) Curtailment (%) $5,332 2,679 5.4% 17
Three Illustrative VGI Grid Services Load Frequency Load Regulation Following Shifting https://www.powermag.com/getting-bulk-storage-projects-built/?pagenum=3 18
Grid Benefits (Load Shifting) + Load shifting reduces both grid capital investment and operating costs by reducing the amount of storage built, and PV curtailment + Marginal benefits decrease as market size Levelized Cost increases Savings 1000 $1,000 $ Million Levelized Annual Cost Avoided 900 $900 MW Avoided Storage Build Storage Built + 160 MW 800 $800 700 $700 600 + $130 $600 Savings 500 $500 366 400 $400 300 $300 $206 200 $200 100 $100 0 $0 1000 2000 3000 4000 MW of Load Shifting 19
Declining Marginal Value with Increasing Supply Frequency Load Shifting Regulation + Small market for Frequency Regulation is easily saturated + Larger market for Load Shifting 2018 42MMT Case in 2016 $/kW-yr. (CA 2018-2030 levelized value) 20
CA VGI Market Estimation Results + Load shifting has highest market size and value potential 100,000 2030 Market Size 10,000 (MW) $1,009 Market Values are in 2016 $Million 1,000 $116 $40 100 Load Load Frequency Following Shifting Regulation 2018 42MMT Case in 2016 $/kW-yr. (CA 2018-2030 levelized value) 21
2. VGI Potential (Supply) 22
Unma managed EV Charging Load Shape Results ts – CA 2030 Weekday 2030 DCFC Home Work Average hourly load Peak load (GW) Total Energy (GWh) (GW) Home 1.3 4.3 30.2 Work 0.3 0.9 6.5 Public 0.4 1.0 9.8 Combined 1.9 4.9 46.5 + VGI potential from EV fleet + Based on vehicle types, charging level and location and driving patterns 23
VGI Market Results Summary (2030) 𝑾𝑯𝑱 𝑻𝒗𝒒𝒒𝒎𝒛 𝒈𝒑𝒔 𝑭𝑾 (𝑵𝑿) 𝑵𝒃𝒔𝒍𝒇𝒖 𝑾𝒃𝒎𝒗𝒇 $𝑵 = 𝑼𝒑𝒖𝒃𝒎 𝑵𝒃𝒔𝒍𝒇𝒖 𝑾𝒃𝒎𝒗𝒇 $𝑵 × 𝑯𝒔𝒋𝒆 𝑬𝒇𝒏𝒃𝒐𝒆 𝒈𝒑𝒔 𝑾𝑯𝑱 (𝑵𝑿) % Market Size V1G V2G Regulation 64% 100% Following 19% 100% Shifting 9% 13% + With 25% EV participation and V2G capability Frequency Regulation and Load Following market is fully saturated by EVs alone 25% EV Participation 24
VGI saturates Frequency Regulation but not Load Shifting Market Frequency Regulation Load Shifting 25
3. VGI Market Revenues 26
Develop Market Prices from CPUC IRP Scenarios Key Inputs From CPUC IRP Hourly Production Simulation and Key Model Outputs Reference Scenarios Long-Term Capacity Expansion 1 Load Forecast Energy Market Price (Including Impact of Rooftop Solar, DG Storage, and EV Forecast Adoption) Hourly Production ▪ Hourly day-ahead energy market results by Simulation 2 scenario and zone ▪ Wheeling costs and transactional Resource Buildout friction between different zones (To meet policy goals and ▪ Impacts and pricing from renewable reliability needs) curtailment ▪ Advanced hydro and storage Derivative Outputs representation 3 ▪ Incorporate key energy policies and trends Transmission and Operational Changes Ancillary Services, 4 Capacity, and Real-Time Other Major Drivers: Energy Forecasts ▪ Gas Prices ▪ Carbon Prices 27
3. VGI Expected Revenue + BEV250 in 2025 + Relative benefit of V2G versus unmanaged charging is $870/EV-yr. (if Frequency Regulation prices remain high) Frequency Regulation $525 Relative benefit V2G vs V1G Unmanaged charging V1G DA load V2G All grid $345 shifting only services Relative benefit V1G vs unmanaged smarter, more flexible 28
V2G Revenue for BEV250 and PHEV50 $1,600 Avoided Distribution Capacity Annual Revenue (Nominal $) $1,400 Savings $1,200 $1,072 Nonspinning Reserve Benefits $1,000 $637 $800 Spinning Reserve Benefits $508 $600 $367 $271 $256 Regulation Down Benefits $400 $165 $58 $200 Regulation Up Benefits $- All No FR DA LS RT LS All No FR DA LS RT LS Avoided Energy Savings Only Only Only Only BEV250 PHEV50 total V2G DA – Day Ahead Energy FR – Frequency Regulation RT – Real Time Energy LS – Load Shifting + Increasing revenue potential with additional market services + Potentially high revenues in real-time energy market, but harder to forecast and capture Price taker, perfect foresight co-optimized dispatch with market prices derived from 2018 42MMT Case 29
Key Drivers 30
Key Drivers and Uncertainties EV Fleet IRP Quantifiable with Scenario Analysis + EV Adoption & BEV ratio + Renewable penetration + Intra- vs. Inter-session VGI + Cost of PV & storage + Workplace charging + Regionalization & EIM Fillable Knowledge Gaps + Distribution costs of + Driver participation and high electrification behavior Known Unknowns + Grid Modernization + Automated & shared vehicles (3 Revolutions) 31
In Conclusion + Define key drivers that can be quantified with scenario/sensitivity analysis + Quantify grid value with CPUC IRP scenarios (Demand) • IRP will enhance representation of distributed resources and EVs in next cycle + Estimate resource potential from EV’s providing VGI services (Supply) + Estimate market size for VGI services + Develop market price forecasts from CPUC IRP scenarios + Estimate revenues from VGI services 32
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