Bunker Fuel Quality Management Today & Tomorrow Ian Workman Account Manager VPS Testing & Inspection Inc VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
• Over the past decade evolving Environmental Legislation has had more impact on fuel quality than any other potential cause or effect. • Decreasing Sulphur Limits have resulted in “ Spikes ” of Off-specification fuel Immediately Before & Immediately After every Legislative Change: • May- • Nov- Jan-15 North Global Jan-12 Ameri Aug-12 Global Jan-20 • Jul-10 Baltic ECA ECA 06 07 Sea Cap can Cap 0.10% ECA Drop Drop • 1.00% 3.50% 1.00% 0.50% ECA Drop ECA Drop • 1.50% • 1.50% • Decreasing sulphur limits have led to • The development of new fuel types & grades, new lubricant oils • Increased blending, greater use of cutter stocks, diluents & additives • Greater awareness of the need for fuel management and monitoring of fuel quality, • Causing increasing-rate of revisions of the Marine Fuel Quality Std (ISO8217) VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
The Financial Cost of Environmental Change? • The International Transport Forum at the OECD stated: • “The TOTAL increase in container shipping costs due to the 2015 requirements amounted to USD 500 million .” • “The 2020 requirements could add annual total costs up to USD 30 billion for the container shipping industry.” • Shipping line OOCL has joined other major container shipping companies in announcing plans for a bunker recovery charge as a result of the 2020 sulfur cap which is estimated to cost the shipping industry $60 billion each year. • Forecasters are stating the price difference between Distillate and HFO could rise to $400/mt in 2020 . • A heavy increase in OPEX for anyone choosing the Distillate Fuel option!! VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
Industry Fuel Forecasters: Global Marine Fuel Consumption 4.5 4 3.5 3 million barrels /day 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 HFO Distillate 3 million barrel/day switch from HFO to Distillate in 2020 Marine accounted for 45% of global demand for HFO in 2015 & 3% of global distillate demand. Marine will account for less than 25% of global HFO demand during 2020 & 10% of distillate demand. VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
Global Fuel Quality • Currently 15% of all residual fuels and VPS Bunker Alerts by Test Parameter - 2017 9% of all distillates fuels tested exceed the ISO8217 test specification by at 14 12 No. of Alerts least one parameter. 10 8 6 • In 2017 VPS released 58 “Bunker Alerts” 4 2 of which 36 (62%) were related to 0 Residual fuel & 22(38%) related to Distillate fuel quality. • Which was a 70% increase over 2016 Residual Distillate Distillate Bunker Alerts and 30% VPS Bunker Alert Volumes by Region - 2017 increase over 2016 Residual Bunker 7 Alerts. 6 5 No. of alerts • In 2017: There were more fuel issues in 4 Europe & Americas than AMEA. 3 2 • H1-2018: 33 Bunker Alerts 1 0 • 18 x Residual (55%), 15 x Distillate (45%) Residual Distillate Residual Distillate Residual Distillate Residual Distillate • 14 x Americas, 13 x Europe, 6 x AMEA Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Americas Europe Middle East Asia • Key Parameters, Contaminants, Cat-Fines, FP VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
Fuel Choice Decisions? • The choice of available marine fuels is now greater than ever and will only increase: • ISO8217:2017 – Distillates • DMA, DFA, DMB, DFB, DMX, DMZ, DFZ • ISO8217:2017 – Residuals • RMA10, RMB30, RMD80, RME180, RMG180, RMG380, RMG500, RMG700, RMK380, RMK500, RMK700 • Other Fuels: • ULSFOs – Hybrids eg HDME50 • LNG – Methane, Ethane, Propane • Methanol, Ethanol • 100% Bio-fuel • Other Power Sources: • Solar • Wind • Fuel Cells VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
Residual Fuels • At present Residual fuels remain the largest volume fuel products used on board. Therefore generates the largest number of technical issues on ships • Following the demise of 1.0% m/m Sulphur residual fuels(end of 2014), HFO quality improved due to reduced blending. But since 2016 there has been a continuing rise in quality issues. • From 2020, HFO demand will dramatically decrease , but to what level will be influenced by the degree of Residual/Distillate Blending & take up of “scrubber” technology. • Whatever the level, the current fuel management issues will still be relevant • Therefore all ISO8217 Parameters will still require monitoring. • Currently 15% of Residual Fuels tested exceed the specification of at least one ISO8217 test parameter • Fuels may achieve the ISO8217 Specifications, but can still cause operational problems, due to the presence of materials not specifically covered by ISO8217. • VPS are pioneers and leaders of additional testing services from both a pre & post-burn perspective. • Such additional testing and operational advice, provides ship owners and operators with more detailed information regarding their fuel allowing them to take the necessary fuel management actions required to protect their assets. VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
Forensic Detection of Fuel Contaminants • The increase in Number & Types of Fuel in 2020 will see a wider use of Diluents, Cutter Stocks, Additives, Blending. • All the above can alter the fuels chemistry, and have a potential destabilising effect, or damaging side-effects. • Original Fuel source and refining also influences fuel quality: • Eg Crude type and region, Shale Oil, Tall Oil • There will be an increase in fuel quality issues. • Estimated Average Cost of each fuel Mgmt issue = $300K • Laboratories are now using many high-end analytical techniques and methods to identify the cause of fuel problems: • Gas Chromatography- Mass Spectrometry (GCMS): Chemical Screening, Extended Head-Space, Acid Extraction, Vacuum distillation, DI. • Fourier Transform Infrared – (FTIR), Solids contamination, Polymers • Microscopy – Solids and polymer identification • Separability No., Reserve Stability No. (RSN) – Compliment TSP/TSA/TSE • CHNO Analysis (Carbon, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Oxygen) • Steel Corrosion VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
Where Do Contaminants Come From? • Fuel Blending • Cutter Stocks to achieve Sulphur specifications • Shale Oil • FAME • Bio-Materials • Automotive fuels • Heating Fuels • FAME • Bio-Waste • Cross-contamination • Fuel Supply Chain • Adulteration • Waste Chemical Disposal VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
Potential Fuel Contaminants Chemical Group Comment Chlorinated hydrocarbons do not originate from any refinery processes and are therefore an indication CHLORINATED that the fuel is possibly contaminated. Based on VPS experience, these contaminants may result in HYDROCARBONS damages to fuel injection equipment. Aldehydes do not originate from normal petroleum refining and are therefore an indication that the ALDEHYDE fuel is possibly contaminated. Based on VPS experience, these contaminants may result in damages to fuel injection equipment. Alcohol does not originate from normal petroleum refining. Based on VPS experience, these ALCOHOL contaminants may result in increased sludge formation and possibly laquering and/or deposit formation. Styrenes do not originate from normal petroleum refining but are known to be present in some blend STYRENES stocks for fuel oils. Based on VPS experience, these contaminants may result in increased sludge formation and possibly laquering and/or deposit formation. Terpenes do not originate from any refinery processes and are therefore an indication that the fuel is TERPENES possibly contaminated. Based on VPS experience, these contaminants may result in increased sludge formation and /or damages to fuel injection equipment. DCPD does not originate from normal petroleum refining but are known to be present in some blend CYCLOPENTADIENE stocks for fuel oils. Based on VPS experience, these contaminants may result in increased sludge formation and possibly laquering and/or deposit formation. Phenols do not originate from normal petroleum refining. Based on VPS experience, these PHENOLS contaminants may result in increased sludge formation and /or damages to fuel injection equipment. Ketones do not originate from any refinery processes and are therefore an indication that the KETONES fuel is possibly contaminated. Based on VPS experience, these contaminants may result in damages to fuel injection equipment. VPS – NEP&I: Fuel Quality & 2020 (Oct 2018)
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