Building Community Resilience Incorporating Hazard Mitigation, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Building Community Resilience Incorporating Hazard Mitigation, Climate and other Changing Realities Jim Fox, Matt Hutchins, Karin Rogers UNC Asheville’s NEMAC November 16, 2016

UNC Asheville’s NEMAC N ational E nvironmental M odeling and A nalysis C enter “ Helping people understand — and reach decisions in — a changing world . ” • Applied Research and technology development focused on integration of climate, socio- economic and environmental data sets • Data and GIS • Visualization and Story Telling • Risk Based Decision Making • Decision Support tools for Resilience, Vulnerability and Risk, Flood Mitigation, Emergency Response, Water Resource Issues, Planning • Collaboration among government, academia and private enterprise that focuses on Public/Private Partnerships dealing with Resilience

US S Clim Climate Resil silie ience Toolk lkit it Natio ional l Clim Climate Asse ssessment & In Indic icators US S Forest Se Servi vice Eastern Forests Envir ironmental l Th Threat Ass ssessment Ce Center Ash shevil ille le Clim Climate Resilie silience Part rtnership ip Local and State Government Companies Others

Our society will not make decisions based on a single future driver • People must be able to integrate climate information with Water Resources other value drivers • They must trust the source of information • As part of a community, we rely on a set of services and we are willing to pay for those services – through taxes, cost of living, etc. • Those services may be stressed by a variety of things – but Development Pressure we can usually plan based on trends, etc. • Services that are interrupted are harder to deal with Rapidly Changing Energy Costs

What is is Resili lience? • Resilience is the capacity of a community, business, or natural environment to prevent, withstand, respond to, and recover from a disruption. • Resilience addresses existing hazards while simultaneously preparing for increased frequency of hazards due to change.

Hazard Mitigation/ Emergency Response Approach http://www.cbm-hse.com/emergency-response-planning/

Flood of 1916 Hwy 74 bridge between Mecklenburg and Gaston Counties wreaked during the 1916 flood. Photo by Cushman. From the Book “The North Carolina Flood (1916) Published by William Bell via Google Images Image of the French Broad River in July 1916, taken by photographer Steve Nicklas Obtained from the NOAA Photo Library

Major Flooding in in 2004 • Impact related to loss of life and property, loss of commerce, loss of drinking water • Community established a Flood Damage Reduction Task Force to build resilience • Decision support tools were created and a flood mitigation plan was approved by the city and county • Action taken! Numerous actions were put in place

Note: Frequency and severity of hazard events (and how they are changing) are a key part of resilience analysis

Best Practices for Climate Resilience City of Asheville’s Climate U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Resilience Plan toolkit.climate.gov

Five Steps to Resilience toolkit.climate.gov

Step 1: Step 2: Step 3: Step 4: Step 5: Take Explore Assess Investigate Prioritize Action Climate Vulnerability Options Actions (Implement) Threats & Risk - Identify stressors - Exposure and - Identify feasible - Evaluate options - Create plan - Climate impacts sensitivity options to reduce - Prioritize based on - Assign - Asset inventory - Adaptive capacity vulnerability vulnerability and responsibilities - Stakeholders - Vulnerability risk - Monitor - Develop goals - Risk effectiveness - Reiterate

City of Asheville Climate Resilience Planning • Series of 6 workshops over 5 months • Climate resilience team • 14 City Departments • Data-informed process with measurable indicators • Final report • Integrated with Comprehensive Planning Process • 25-year vision • Transparency

Step 1: Explore Climate Threats Clim limate Str Stressors • Extreme Precipitation • Drought • Temperature Variability Threats Th • Flooding • Landslides • Water Shortages • Wildfire • Heat Waves/Extreme Heat

What are the Primary Climate Stressors and Threats for Asheville? • Heavy precip ipitation (increasing frequency of extreme events) • Majo ajor riv riverine fl flooding events • Nuis isance fl flooding an and ru runoff resulting in erosion and stormwater impacts • More lan andslides • Dr Drought (increasing severity) • Water shor shortages and stress on water systems • Impact on agriculture • Greater chance of wild ildfire • Temperature var aria iabil ilit ity (changing variability and more extreme heat events) • For homes without air conditioning, more stress on vulnerable populations • Night-time low temperature will increase • Increased: • Length of growing seasons (but variability in last frost) • Number of cooling degree days Key findings from the • Number of consecutive hot days Third National Climate Assessment

Climate Stressors and Threats in Asheville Swannanoa Riv River, 2004 2004 Extreme Precipitation Index for the Asheville Area Heaviest 1% Rainfall Trend 5 4 Avg. # events of the heaviest 1% Flo loodin ing 3 2 Landsli La lides 1 0 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Note: It is not the heavy precipitation itself that is the threat, it is what it causes (flooding and Photo Credit: NOAA Pee eeks Cr Cree eek http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/bigs/wea00722.j landslides). Landsli La lide, , 2004 2004 pg

City of Asheville Assets Plan lanning Area an and Ass sset What are key assets, and Built ilt In Infrastructure Buildings and Infrastructure (City-owned) how do we characterize Historic Structures them? Commercial l De Development Centers and Corridors • 14 departments Commercial properties represented Communications Communication systems • 56 key assets identified Fiber infrastructure • Infrastructure Radio and cell towers Community De Development an and Hou ousin ing • Services Affordable housing Community Centers Residential housing and structures Riverfront development (ownership, uses) Underserved Neighborhoods . . .

Asset-Threat Pairs How will the highlighted climate threats have an impact on things I care about (assets)? Ass sset Th Threat Commercial Properties Flooding Residential Properties Flooding Residential Properties Landslides Water supply mains Flooding and associated erosion Roads Flooding Roads Landslides

Step 2: Assess Vulnerability & Risk • Vuln lnerabil ilit ity: the su susceptib ibil ilit ity of societal assets due to physic ical and so socia ial factors • Ris isk Sc Scopin ing: likelihood, consequences and future change • Assets grouped into 14 categories • Six threats considered • Ultimate goal is to develop strategies that reduce vulnerability and/or risk

Threats Asset Nuisance Water Extreme Flooding Landslides Wildfire Flooding Shortage Heat  Bridges   City-owned Facilities    Commercial Properties    Critical Infrastructure  Food Infrastructure   Industrial Properties   Natural Areas for Habitat and Conservation  Parks and Recreation    Residential Properties   Residents/People   Roads Supply Chains multiple  Transit  Water Supply/North Fork Dam

Framework for Assessing Vulnerability Two Prim rimary ry Concepts: Exposure an and Se Sensitiv ivity: : the presence of assets in relation to a threat and the degree to which they are affected Adaptive Cap apacity: the ability to cope with impacts

Exposure : Commercial Property/Flooding • Metric: 500 year floodplain • Scale of analysis: unit of the asset (parcel-level)

Potential Impact: Commercial Property/Flooding Le Levels of of Se Sensitivit ity - Par arcels Hig igh — Business-related structure in floodplain (retail stores, shopping centers, restaurants, hotels, offices) Med — Other properties with structure in floodplain (parking lots, warehouses and storage) Parcel sensitivity Lo Low — Surrounding property (only) in floodplain (no structure)

Adaptive Capacity: Commercial Property/Flooding Le Levels of of Adap aptiv ive Cap apacit ity - Par arcels ls Lo Low — No known building compliance to flood waters Med — Structure built 1981-2010 (base height at level of 100yr flood and floodproofing requirements) Hig igh — Structure built since 2010 (base height 2ft above 100yr flood and floodproofing requirements)

Vulnerability Matrix Pot oten ential l Im Impact Medium High Low Low Medium High High Cope o Cop ility to Medium Low High Medium Abil High Low Medium Low

Areas of Vulnerability (Multiple scales) Individual Parcels Census Block Groups (Neighborhoods) Beaverdam Haw Creek West Downtown Asheville Biltmore Village Arden