Budget Forecasting and Simulation Presented to: River Valley School - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Budget Forecasting and Simulation Presented to: River Valley School District December 8, 2016

A powerful financial planning tool that can be used for: 1. Development of a multi-year financial plan 2. Scenario comparisons and “what - if” analysis 3. Detailed budget and performance analysis 4. Budget preparation and upload to accounting system 5. Budget distribution and stakeholder reporting

Data Elements • General Ledger data from FY12 through FY17 • Projections are based off of FY17 General Ledger • Calculators are used for • Enrollment and Membership • General State Aid, Revenue limit, and Tax Levy • Salaries and Benefits • All other assumptions are based on percentage increases over the current budget amount and may include one-time and recurring adjustments entered by the district • All assumptions are determined by the district

Enrollment and Membership Resident In-District • Projected using the 5-year cohort survival method • APL (Applied Population Laboratory) projections used for incoming 4K and 5K class sizes • Projected to decrease by 125 students over the next 5 years • APL projects a 133 student decrease over the next 5 years Resident Open Enrollment • Projected to remain level with current year (97 students) Non-Resident Open Enrollment • Projected to remain level with current year (50 students)

Revenues Revenue growth is primarily a function of student enrollment and per pupil revenue limit increases established annually by the State • Per Pupil Revenue Limit Increase - $0 for FY17, $0 for subsequent years • Per Pupil Categorical Aid – Decrease from $250 to $150 in FY18 and remains at $150 in subsequent years Equalized assessed valuation • FY17 +2.12% actual • FY18-22 +2.27% State valuation increased by 2.27% and is projected to grow at the same rate as the district in subsequent years

Expenditures Salaries • Salaries - 2.5% • Plus $40K/year for credit advancement • Staffing - Remains flat, no change Benefits • Health Insurance – Increase capped at 5.0% per year (District’s cost) • Dental Insurance – Increase capped at 2.5% per year (District’s cost) Costs controllable by the District are projected to remain at current spending levels. Utilities are projected to increase by 2.0% per year Purchased transportation is projected to increase by 2.0% per year District Insurance (Liability, Property etc.) projected to increase by 2.0% per year

Observations and Additional Considerations • FY17 mill rate decrease is due to a combination of two key variables: 1. FY16 levy ($675K) includes the last Fund 39 debt service payment 2. FY17 and FY18 levy includes $600K Energy Efficiency Exemption, does not carryforward to FY19

Observations and Additional Considerations (continued) • Tonight’s projections are a “ starting point ” to the budgeting and planning process. • Collaboration and consensus on assumptions is an important part of the process