January, 2019 Brexit: The Final Countdown Tom Clarkson and Clare Palmer britainthinks.com BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Since early 2017, the Brexit Diaries have explored how people experience the Brexit process: This week, we have conducted fresh research to update our understanding. BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 2
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Some of you may be familiar with our voter segments from across our Brexit Diaries series: Pleased about the result and have no significant concerns Die-hards about leaving Pleased about the result but have some significant Cautious Optimists concerns about leaving Accepting Disappointed by the result but can see some significant Pragmatists positives to leaving Devastated Disappointed by the result and can see no significant Pessimists positives to leaving BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 3
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown The size of these segments remains stable. 38% 37% 37% Devastated 35% 34% 34% Pessimists 33% 32% 32% 32% 31% 30% 30% 31% 31% 31% Die-hards 27% 27% Cautious 19% Optimists 18% 18% 18% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 10% Accepting 9% Pragmatists 01 March 2017 01 June 2017 01 September 2017 01 December 2017 01 March 2018 01 June 2018 01 September 2018 01 December 2018 01 January 2019 (Q. In 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, in a referendum on 23 rd June. Thinking about this referendum, which of the following comes closest to describing your viewpoint? [Base: All respondents (n=2047)]) BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 4
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown This presentation draws on both qualitative and quantitative techniques: Focus groups in Slough Nationally representative with the two “swing” survey of 2047 GB adults segments BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 5
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown The most important findings from this research: 1. There is 2. Impressions 4. Many voters absolute despair 5. Nobody is of Theresa May’s think the at the whole deal are 3. Any optimism consequences coming out of political class, Brexit well – negative, but about leaving is of a ‘no deal’ with Brexit seen gone. including rarely rooted in Brexit are as a distraction engagement impossible to Jeremy Corbyn. from more with the detail. predict. urgent issues. BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 6
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown There is absolute despair at the whole 1 political class, with Brexit seen as a distraction from more urgent issues. BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 7
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown For voters, there are far more urgent priorities than Brexit. Biggest concerns for the UK • Cost of living “The NHS, the police force – • Immigration everything is having • Insufficient police resources cut backs.” • Crime • Housing supply “We’ve got record • House prices numbers of young kids being murdered in this • Homelessness country, and no one is • Insufficient funding for the NHS paying any attention.” • Funding cut from schools BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 8
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown However, they feel they are getting little support from those in charge to help tackle these challenges. % of each segment who agree that ‘the UK’s focus on Brexit has significantly hampered our ability to deal with other major “They need to look at it issues facing the country’ – 73% overall from a longer timeframe, rather than 66% 76% 80% 84% just the here and now.” “They’re not doing what is in the national interest.” This idea that the political elite has ‘taken its eye off the ball’ acts as the backdrop to subsequent political views. (Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? ‘The UK’s focus on Brexit has significantly hampered our ability to deal with other major issues facing the country’ [Base: All respondents (n=2047)]) BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 9
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Voters feel let down by politicians, with recent debate on Brexit being seen as party politics at its worst. 1. Total despair and 2. Political factions are 3. The focus on a ‘People’s disillusionment, with seen to be playing games Brexit’ is thought to have politicians not seen to be in a bid to gain/retain been lost. taking any decisive action. power and keep their jobs. BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 10
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Voters feel let down by politicians, with recent debate on Brexit being seen as party politics at its worst. 1. Total despair and 2. Political factions are seen 3. The focus on a ‘People’s disillusionment, with to be playing games in a bid Brexit’ is thought to have politicians not seen to be to gain/retain power and been lost. taking any decisive action. keep their jobs. “[If politicians in the UK could make one “Just make a decision – thing better, what would it be?] Resign.” leave or not leave. [What would you choose?] I don’t know anymore.” “Don’t make false promises and not follow them through.” BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 11
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Voters feel let down by politicians, with recent debate on Brexit being seen as party politics at its worst. 1. Total despair and 2. Political factions are 3. The focus on a ‘People’s disillusionment, with seen to be playing games Brexit’ is thought to have politicians not seen to be in a bid to gain/retain been lost. taking any decisive action. power and keep their jobs. “It’s being pulled by “Labour have gone down extremes, games between the route of ‘let’s blame the the factions are not really of Conservatives’.” interest to the general public.” BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 12
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Voters feel let down by politicians, with recent debate on Brexit being seen as party politics at its worst. 1. Total despair and 2. Political factions are seen 3. The focus on a ‘People’s disillusionment, with to be playing games in a bid Brexit’ is thought to have politicians not seen to be to gain/retain power and been lost. taking any decisive action. keep their jobs. “[The Conservative cabinet] don’t want the “They’re not interested deal to go through but are they going to in the general public, come through and have no confidence in they just want to keep May for the good of the country? No. Just their party in.” shows you it’s not about the People’s Brexit but about keeping power.” BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 13
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Anger and frustration is directed at the whole political class as well as specific individuals. % of each segment who agree that ‘the entire political establishment has failed “There was an opportunity the country on Brexit’ – 83% overall for the politicians to show that they can do something… it feels too 86% 88% 85% 85% late now.” “Politicians don’t have a clue.” (Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? ‘The entire political establishment has failed the country on Brexit’ [Base: All respondents (n=2047)]) BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 14
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Impressions of Theresa May’s deal are 2 negative, but rarely rooted in engagement with the detail. BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 15
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Swing voters are more confused about Brexit than ever before. Perceived Complexity of lack of Contradictory debate transparency information “Scare- mongering” in the media Jargon / Disillusionment technical terms Very low engagement in the details of the debate. “I think you only hear about one part of “What deal?” the deal and you don’t hear about anything else.” BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 16
Brexit Diaries: The Final Countdown Divergent worldviews shape the way that Leavers and Remainers see the Brexit debate. • We asked swing voters to draw a map of the world, including the UK. • Some Leave voters drew a large UK at the centre, with Europe comparatively small on the sidelines. • They also depicted the UK as geographically close to the USA. • Remain voters’ maps positioned the UK closer to Europe and further from the USA. • For both Leave and Remain voters, Ireland was often entirely absent, as was Africa. BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 17
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