LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE Blaming Europe? Citizens, Governments and the Media Sara B Hobolt Sutherland Chair in European Institutions London School of Economics and Political Science s.b.hobolt@lse.ac.uk
Blaming Europe? AFP Photo/Jose Jordan
Questions How do citizens assign blame to the European 1) Union? Do the media and governments shift blame to the 2) EU? Can citizens hold the EU to account for policy 3) outcomes?
Attribution and Accountability “Democracy is the process by which people choose the man who'll get the blame. ” - Bertrand Russell Attribution of responsibility Policy performance Vote choice
How do citizens assign blame? Institutional reality versus individual biases? Attribution of blame should reflect the division of responsibility across levels of government Especially when information is available But citizens also rely on in-group biases (EU attitudes) Selective attribution of blame: Europhiles absolve the EU of blame, whereas Eurosceptics blame the EU for poor performance
How do citizens assign blame?
Who is responsible? National Joint EU Nobody 70 55 45 37 35 33 26 26 20 18 18 8 4 3 2 2 Health care Economy Immigration Interest rates Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
Responsibility for interest rates 8 Pegged to Eurozone Eurozone Attribution of responsibility to the EU 7 Unpegged 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Experts Public Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) & Survey of EU experts
Impact of media coverage on the EU When do citizens get it right? TV EU visibility High exposure Newspaper EU visibility Low exposure -4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 Closeness to expert assignment on the economy Source: European Election Studies 2009 & European Media Study 2009
Responsibility for the financial crisis (UK) 80% 70% US banks % think responsible for financial crisis 60% 50% 40% British government 30% 20% EU 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: British Election Study, 2008-2012
Responsibility for the economy (UK) 80% 70% % think affects the economy the most EU or both 60% 50% 40% 30% Just British government 20% Neither 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: British Election Study, 2004-2012
Blaming the EU for economic problems 40 % blaming EU for economic problems 35 2012 2011 30 2010 25 20 15 10 5 0 Britain France Spain Germany Poland Source: PEW survey data 2010, 2011 & 2012
Selective attribution of blame in the crisis EU opponent 50% EU supporter EU blamed for economic problems 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Britain France Spain Germany Poland Source: PEW survey data 2011
Selective attribution of blame for the crisis (UK) 70% 60% % think EU is responsible for financial crisis EU opponent 50% 40% 30% 20% EU supporter 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: British Election Study
Summary: How do citizens assign blame? Citizens’ attribution of responsibility to the EU reflects the institutional and political context More blame of the EU as the euro crisis has unfolded Newspaper consumption makes citizens betters able to assign responsibility, and high levels of media coverage reduces biases Selective attribution: blame also driven by attitudes towards the EU
The Blame Game? To what extent do national governments and the national media assign blame to the EU?
Media blame attribution for the economy Assignment of responsibility for the economy, 2009 National government Television Other national actors Newspapers European Union 0 10 20 30 40 % stories assigning responsibility Source: European Media Study 2009 (N=36,000 stories)
The Crisis: who is credited by governments? 100% National government EU Other 75% 50% 25% 0% UK Germany Ireland Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012
The Crisis: who is blamed by governments? 100% 75% Previous government 50% Other EU 25% 0% UK Germany Ireland Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012
Summary: Who do the media and governments blame? The media covers the EU, but policy-specific coverage is less common, and attribution of responsibility to the EU is rare Heads of Governments very rarely blame the EU, even during the crisis. Instead we find: Diffusion of responsibility – joint European responsibility (“we are all in this together”) Credit taking – national governments claiming credit for policy outcomes
Can citizens hold the EU to account for policy outcomes? Accountability: Punishing or rewarding governments for policy outcomes that is their responsibility Greater performance voting when there is “clarity of responsibility” ~ identifiable government Clarity of responsibility Attribution of responsibility Performance evaluation Vote choice
Accountability in a national context High clarity 2.0 systems Change in propensity to vote for government parties Medium clarity 1.5 systems 1.0 Low clarity systems 0.5 0.0 Less More Less More Less More responsible responsible responsible responsible responsible responsible The economy moves from bad to good -0.5 Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
Accountability in European elections 40% % change in EPP vote share 30% 20% EU more responsible EU less 10% responsible 0% Economy moves from bad to good Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
Effect on trust in the EU 40% % change in trust in EU institutions 30% EU more 20% responsible EU less 10% responsible 0% Economy moves from bad to good Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
Summary: Can citizens hold the EU to account? There is no evidence that citizens punish or rewards MEPs for performance that the EU is deemed to be responsible for: The EU lacks a clearly identifiable “government party” in the EP that voters can punish and reward No clear link between the European Parliament vote and EU executive However, when citizens blame the EU for poor performance that leads to lower levels of trust in EU institutions
Implications Lack of mechanisms for accountability in the EU Reduced accountability for national governments Consequences for the legitimacy of the EU Aggravated by the crisis
Possible solutions to accountability deficit Greater institutional clarity Clearer divisions of competences Greater government clarity Government-Opposition politics in the European Parliament Stronger link between parliamentary majority and the Commission or a directly elected Commission President Greater transparency to make it more difficult for national politicians to diffuse blame/claim credit “A fundamental deepening of the EMU must go hand in hand with greater democratic legitimacy. Wherever new competences are created at European level or closer coordination of national policies is established, full democratic control has to be ensured.” Future of Europe Group (EU Foreign Ministers), 17 Sep 2012
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