Bidens new consolidated lead in the ba battlegr ttleground ound - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Biden’s new consolidated lead in the ba battlegr ttleground ound Phone Poll August 24, 2020

Biden moves up to 10-point lead in battleground, with Democratic sweep possible PRESIDENTIAL, HOUSE & SENATE BALLOTS BATTLEGROUND Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 3rd Party +6 +1 +10 +4 +6 +2 +7 +5 +7 +8 +5 +7 +8 53 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 50 49 49 48 47 47 46 46 46 45 45 45 44 43 43 43 43 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 March May August March May August March May August March May August 2016 Trump V. Biden Pres Generic Congressional Named Senate AZ,CO, IA, ME, NC Vote Displaying Senate result from Democracy Corps March & May & August 1 2020 battleground phone surveys.

Biden has finally consolidated & energized Sanders and other primary opponents PRESIDENTIAL & SENATE BALLOTS BATTLEGROUND Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 3rd Party +86 +96 +97 +62 +66 +86 +56 +62 +59 +94 +91 +56 98 98 94 93 92 90 89 85 80 77 77 77 76 76 76 73 71 71 70 63 51 20 20 18 14 9 7 7 6 6 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 March May August March May August March May August Biden Sanders Other March May August March May August March May August in in in Other Sanders Other Biden Biden Sanders Primary Primary Primary in Primary in Primary in Primary in Primary in Primary in Primary Generic Congressional Interest in Election (%10) Presidential Vote Trump v. Biden 2

Democrats more consolidated, more anti-Trump and equally engaged ENGAGEMENT AND CONSOLIDATION Deomcrat Joe Biden %10, interest Strong approve Strong disapprove Republican Donald Trump +83 +81 +83 +81 +87 +78 +92 +82 95 89 89 89 89 85 84 83 82 81 79 72 70 71 70 69 8 7 6 2 4 4 6 8 9 11 79 82 87 7 3 89 91 93 May August May August May August May August Democrats Republicans Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Trump Biden Democrats Republicans March May August voters voters Trump Job Approval Presidential Vote Interest in Election (1-10 Scale) 3

Biden moves into real lead with millennials and young, but warning, loses lead with older voters 2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT Registered Voters in Battleground Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump 3rd Party +15 +15 +29 +4 +2 +2 +2 +11 +6 +4 +18 +28 +23 +16 +13 +10 -- +10 61 60 58 56 54 54 54 53 53 52 52 51 49 49 49 48 48 47 47 47 47 47 45 43 43 43 43 43 41 40 37 37 36 35 33 31 10 9 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 May August May August May August May August May August May August May August May August May August White White Baby Silent White White White Millennials Gen X Baby Silent Boomer Generation Millennials Under 30 Gen X Boomer Generation 4

Biden now gets huge margins with broad base of Rising American Electorate, especially the women Thinking about the election for President in 2020, who would you vote for if the candidates were -- (ROTATE TRUMP AND BIDEN, KEEP AMASH LAST) Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, or the Libertarian candidate? 2020 PRESIDENTIAL: BIDEN V. TRUMP RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other +75 +67 +19 +32 +36 +33 +23 +19 +21 +28 +15 +29 +4 +18 +12 +38 +4 +1 81 79 65 64 64 63 62 60 58 57 57 55 54 52 51 47 47 45 44 43 43 39 39 37 36 36 36 34 34 32 31 31 27 27 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug African Unmarried White White White White White Hispanic, Millennials, American, Women, Millennial Unmarried College Millennial Millennials, 7% 33% 13% 28% Men, 12% Women, 18% Women, 23% Women, 11% 23% Displaying results from Democracy Corps May & August 2020 battleground phone surveys. 5

Trump’s 2016 white working class vote cooled in mid -terms and cooled further with Biden who competes for women 2016 V. 2018 NATIONAL V. 2020 BATTLEGROUND VOTE Clinton 2016/Democrat 2018/Biden 2020 Trump 2016/Republican 2018/Trump 2020 +13 +14 +4 +6 +48 +27 +34 +30 +14 +5 +8 +39 71 69 66 62 61 56 52 50 45 44 42 34 32 32 30 23 16 Nation 18 Nation May Two-Way August Two-Way 16 Nation 18 Nation May Two-Way August Two-Way Vote Vote Vote Vote White Working-Class Women White Working-Class Men 20% 24% Democracy Corps/VPC April 2020 battleground phone survey data compared to the 2016 presidential 6 vote and 2018 Congressional vote in national exit polls. White working class =non college educated.

Joe Biden does not yet have emotional hold on voters – at least before closing speech Now, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and ideas, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling. Very Warm (76-100) Warm (51-74) Very Cool (0-25) Cool (26-49) -2 -22 +17 -2 -10 -23 -10 +1 -17 52 45 43 41 41 38 36 34 26 35 34 34 31 28 22 20 19 14 28 33 38 37 39 41 45 47 51 35 43 44 45 48 48 51 53 57 Total Independent GOP Defector Millennial White White Gen Z White Baby White Silent White Working millennial Boom Gen Class Women 7

The defining symbols: pro-health care; pro-wealth tax; and anti-border wall Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. THERMOMETERS Very Warm (76-100) Warm (51-74) Very Cool (0-25) Cool (26-49) +1 +9 +51 +56 +13 +20 +41 +45 +12 +13 Neutral: 11 Neutral: 13 Neutral: 21 Neutral: 19 Neutral: 17 Neutral: 20 Neutral: 13 Neutral: 13 Neutral: 6 Neutral: 10 DK: 2 DK: 2 DK: 4 DK: 5 DK: 3 DK: 2 DK: 2 DK: 2 DK: 2 DK: 2 66 65 63 63 49 47 47 44 40 38 55 48 47 41 35 33 32 31 29 28 7 7 17 18 25 27 10 34 12 37 46 48 20 22 29 34 38 43 51 52 March August March August March August March August March August Raising taxes on people The Affordable Raising taxes on those The border wall on with wealth worth Medicaid Care Act making over the Mexican border more than $35 million or Obamacare $250,000 a year per year 8

Diminished GOP dominated by Tea Party and religious, with precious few moderates 64% 65% 59% Catholic Catholic Tea Conservatives, Catholic Conservative, Party, 16% Conservatives, 18% Tea 15% Tea Party, 17% Party, 20% Secular 17% Secular Secular Conservative, Conservative, Conservatives, Evangelical 18% 16% 19% Evangelical Conservative, Evangelical Conservatives, 31% Conservatives, 28% Moderates, Moderate, 18% 26% Moderate, 23% 16% 41% 36% 35% 2018 COMPOSITION OF 2019 COMPOSITION OF 2020 COMPOSITION OF GOP BASE GOP BASE GOP BASE 9

18 percent of electorate now GOP defectors and key target GOP DEFECTORS Democrat Independent/Lean Democrat Joe Biden Independent Independent/Lean Rebulican Donald Trump 79 65 25 8 33 32 28 3 2020 Presidential Vote Interest in Election (%10) Party ID 10

Biden winning some moderates & Catholics; McCain conserve less engaged 2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT GOP TYPOLOGY Democrat Biden/Warren Republican Donald Trump Total 3rd Party +90 +84 +79 +88 +61 94 91 91 90 88 88 87 78 78 74 17 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 Trump v. %10 Trump v. %10 Trump v. %10 Trump v. %10 Trump v. %10 Biden Interest Biden Interest Biden Interest Biden Interest Biden Interest Evangelical, Tea Party, Catholic Secular Moderate, 16% 31% 15% Conservative, 18% Conservative, 19% 11

DEMOCRACY GREENBERG CORPS RESEARCH 1440 G Street. NW 1440 G Street NW Floor 10 Floor 10 Washington, DC 20005 Washington, DC 20005 Phone: +1 202 250 3645 Phone: +1 202 499 6901 www.democracycorps.com www.greenbergresearch.com