BC HYDRO WIND RESOURCE OPTION ENGAGEMENT JUNE 3, 2015
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT PURPOSE • Report on BC-wide cost curve assumption • Present preliminary results on wind UECs • Seek input from stakeholders on cost assumptions and representation of wind potential in BC 2
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT SUMMARY OF CHANGES BASED ON STAKEHOLDER INPUT • 100 m hub height • 3 MW turbine nameplate capacity • 12.75% loss factor • Updated power curves based on current/forward looking turbine technology • 25 year project life 3
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT COST ASSUMPTIONS • Based on line item analysis conducted by Hatch • Considers impact of project size on capital costs • Based on stakeholder input, use BC-wide costs instead of region specific costs (differences in site characteristics outweigh regional differences) • Costs based on generic ‘best case scenario’ site conditions 4
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT BC- WIDE COST CURVE BASED ON GENERIC ‘BEST CASE SCENARIO’ SITE CONDITIONS 3000 2800 2600 Capital Cost ($/kW) 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Project Size (MW) 5
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT CONCERN VOICED IN PREVIOUS SESSION • Hatch cost estimates are representative of ‘best case scenario’ sites, but not reflective of sites with challenging topography and high relief approaches • Many of the high wind speed sites in BC are associated with challenging topography/high relief approaches • Cost estimates likely underestimate UECs for those sites 6
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT ESTIMATING IMPACT OF CHALLENGING TOPOGRAPHY ON CAPITAL COSTS • Informal survey of IPPs (conducted by GE) • Capital costs range from $2,590/kW (plateau site) to $2,940/kW (complex site) • Compare this to $2,350/kW based on the BC-wide cost curve (all estimates for a ~100 MW project) IPP estimate for complex site is roughly 25% more than Capex estimate based on BC-wide cost curve Proposal: • Apply a percent increase in Capex to sites with challenging topography (identified using Google Earth) to better reflect higher costs associated with building in difficult terrain. 7
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT UEC AT POINT OF INTERCONNECTION • Preliminary - based on estimated CFs and 2013 R1/T1 values) • Does not include cost adders (capacity, wind integration, etc) 250.00 230.00 210.00 UEC at POI ($/MWh) 190.00 Capex based on Best Case Scenario Site Conditions 170.00 Capex based on Best Case Scenario Site Conditions plus 25% 150.00 15% Increase Applied to Challenging 130.00 Sites 20% Increase Applied to Challenging 110.00 Sites 90.00 25% Increase Applied to Challenging Sites 70.00 50.00 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GWh 8
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT OTHER CONCERNS • Is it reasonable to assume 100 m hub heights for Class I sites? • Database contains 17 projects with average wind speeds > 9 m/s and 8 projects with wind speeds > 9.5 m/s (at 100 m) Are these wind speeds overly optimistic? 9
WIND RESOURCE ENGAGEMENT NEXT STEPS • Complete UECs based on today’s input • Send out results to stakeholder group • Post results on BC Hydro website (expected summer, 2015) 10
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