Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
What are the alternatives? Stated Alternatives Actual Alternatives • Revocation of Article 50 • Revoke Article 50 – legally possible • Withdrawal Agreement is ratified before 22 • Agree a “Divorce Deal” May – move into transition on 1 June • An exit from the EU with an alternative deal • NO DEAL • NO DEAL – default legal option • Take NO DEAL off the table • A second Referendum • A General Election Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
The BREXIT timeline – thus far Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
What impact will the EU Parliamentary elections have on the BREXIT process? Current Projections suggest: 751 Seat EU Parliament EU Voter concerns (polls • Centre-right European People's Party – 180 conducted in last 6 months): seats – down 37 seats. • Immigration tops the agenda • Centre-left Socialists and Democrats would (50%) drop from 186 to 149 seats. • Economy (47%) • The Europe of Nations and Freedom group • Youth unemployment (47%) (Right-wing and far-right - Italy's Liga, Britain's UKIP and France's National Rally) - • Combatting terrorism moved 62 seats – up from the current 37. down from first to fourth place with 44%. • New parties (BREXIT Party) are listed as "other," are expected to expand from 21 seats to 62. You have to play by The EU cannot be held hostage to European Rules – the Brexit crisis – Emmanuel This is the best deal…the A special place in hell for Margrethe Vestager Macron only possible deal – Brexiteers without a plan – Jean-Claude Juncker Donald Tusk I won’t let British tragedy INFECT the It’s a matter now of avoiding the biggest The only winners from Brexit EU – Manfred Weber mistake of all – a chaotic Brexit without would be Farage and Putin, contractual arrangements in place – who would relish a divided Antonio Tajani Europe – Guy Verhofstadt Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
BREXIT is a “ still to be determined” process and not an event… The Flextension might have removed the immediate Cliff edge - but its only a temporary pause in the process. This additional time needs to be used wisely by the Regulatory Authority and industry alike. Adjustment to industry plans are not as simple as changing the end date. Plans are already in motion – do we keep options open, pause planning, roll-back preparations or do we need to re-evaluate all options on a more strategic basis. The Flextension prolongs the uncertainty on both how and when the UK leaves the EU. Creates a greater need for UK businesses to become agile as BREXIT becomes the backdrop to all strategic and investment decisions. “Any extra time to plan for BREXIT is a gift. Don’t waste it.” Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
Tory / Labour Cross Party talks – can they agree on BREXIT? Public Statements – “Constructive”; “Serious”; “We have some way to travel ” BUT – the EU will not re-open the Withdrawal Agreement. Are changes to the detail of the Political Declaration possible; and if so will they be sufficient to get a majority in the House of Commons? • Workers rights – there appears to be common ground • Customs Union / Arrangement • Remaining part of the EU Customs Union • A new Customs Union agreement • A Customs Union while not participating in the single market. • A second Referendum / public vote ? Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
Written submission to the Exiting the European Union Committee “ Civil Servants have been told to stand down NO DEAL BREXIT operational planning with immediate effect”. • ACITA is concerned that NO DEAL planning is being “stood down”. • HM Government should be using the time until 31/10/2019 to advance NO-DEAL plans in regards to customs formalities. • HM Government should engage in meaningful consultation at all levels to ensure that the future trading relationship with the EU works for all UK business. Use the period up until 31 October wisely, as failure to do so will simply mean that the problems of March become the problems of October. Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
What next… ACITA’s key goal remains ensuring that UK plc is open for EU/UK business on Day 1 post BREXIT regardless of the outcome of the negotiations • We will continue to raise awareness and apply pressure through: • HMRC’s Joint Customs Consultative Committee (JCCC) • Direct engagement with the various Committees at the House of Commons • Regular meetings and correspondence with Members of Parliament • Regular meetings and correspondence with HMRC, HMT and other government agencies • Think Tanks and similar organisations • Follow digital developments (CHIEF / CDS) • Provide neutral technical input into initiatives like Prosperity UK’s Alternative Arrangements Technical Panel (AATP). • Keep our membership abreast of developments. Automated Customs and International Trade Association (ACITA) – the voice of international trade
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