Auto-Oil Advisory Panel Voice Vote Form 10-DEC-2015 1
Motion 1 The Chrysler Oxidation and Deposit test is accepted into GF-6 for evaluating the performance of engine oils for pVis and WPD contingent upon ASTM PCEOCP accepting the test procedure. Motion by: Saad Abouzahr Second: Thom Smith 7
Voice Vote Results Motion 1 Yes No Abstain Not Present = Auto 11 0 0 0 11 Oil 13 1 4 8 26 • Voting is balanced or weighted to ensure ratios of 50 percent Auto and 50 percent Oil. • Two-thirds of Auto and two-thirds of Oil votes cast, less waives, are affirmative. • Fifty percent of all possible votes are affirmative on each side. 11
Chrysler Oxidation and Deposit Engine Test Development for GF-6 AOAP meeting December 10, 2015
Chrysler OD Matrix Test Status All matrix tests have been completed and reported to the TMC in November 2015 Outlier 12/10/2015 2
Chrysler OD Test Precision Matrix Data - PVIS LnPVIS 12/10/2015 3
LnPVIS Precision Model: Oil, Lab, Stand(Lab) Model RMSE Repeatability Reproducibility • s = 0.4764 • s = 0.4764 • s = 0.6238 • r = 1.3205 • R = 1.7291 • IIIH Prove-out s=0.61 • IIIG Precision Matrix s=0.2919 • IIIG recent data s=0.54- 0.63
Chrysler OD Test Precision Matrix Data - WPD WPD 12/10/2015 5
WPD Precision Model: Oil, Lab, Stand(Lab) Model RMSE Repeatability Reproducibility • s = 0.48 • s = 0.48 • s = 0.49 • r = 1.33 • R = 1.36 • IIIH Prove-out s=0.40 • IIIG Precision Matrix s=0.60 • IIIG recent data s=0.39- 0.43
Chrysler OD Test Precision Matrix Data – LnMRV 7 12/10/2015
LnMRV Precision 12/10/2015
Chrysler OD Test Precision Matrix Data – PHOS 9 12/10/2015
PHOS Precision 12/10/2015
Stats Group Analysis A HUGE thank you to Jo Martinez, Kevin O’Malley and the entire stats group for an expedited analysis of the matrix data. Slide 11
Summary The Chrysler test results show repeatability, reproducibility, and discrimination on PVIS, WPD, MRV, and Phosphorus Retention. The precision matrix performed similarly to the prove-out matrix as expected. The Chrysler test meets the test development objectives Status Criteria Remark Yes Stand to stand repeatability Demonstrated Yes Discrimination Demonstrated Yes 0W-16 viable Demonstrated Yes Field Correlation REO 2/3 Yes Procedure and final hardware 90 hours, 6 oz oil addition available and released every 20 hours Yes Long term engine supply and 3800 engines to last readiness through 2022, other parts through CPD Yes Lab to lab reproducibility and 2 independent labs and 3 prove-out and precision matrix dependent labs
Continual Improvement There are ongoing efforts by the Task Force to continue to minimize potential variables between labs in areas of honing, engine build and understand any remaining lab differences. These efforts are expected to continue throughout the test acceptance process, and beyond through the Sequence III Surveillance Panel. Slide 13
TMC438-1 for Chrysler Oxidation and Deposit Test 14
Following the Oil Thickening Process IIIG Viscosity Increase Process 400 350 Viscosity Increase (%) 300 250 2 ~220 % 200 150 100 1 ~120 % 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Test Time (hrs) Oil Thickening process has 2 stages: 1. Linear increase due to volatility 2. Exponential increase due to oxidation
Differences between the IIIG and IIIH IIIG and IIIH tests on same oil with similar final result (162 and 167 %) 434-2 190 140 IIIG 90 IIIH 40 -10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Linear period is extended in the IIIH with a smaller initial slope due to less volatility.
Differences between the IIIG and IIIH Separating these two tests to see the differences we get: 434-2 340 340 IIIG IIIH 290 290 240 240 190 190 140 140 152 % 92 % 90 90 40 40 70 % 15 % -10 -10 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Exponential increase starts later with a steeper slope in the IIIH.
Additional Results From Both Tests More results on each test shows the trends to be typical. Decreased volatility with increased oxidation in the IIIH over the IIIG Further supported by ROBO results showing 48% / 37% volatility in IIIG/IIIH 340 340 IIIH 434-2 IIIG 434-2 290 290 240 240 190 190 140 140 90 90 40 40 -10 -10 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
TMC 438 Performance in IIIG and IIIH 250 IIIG 438 438 has a different chemistry Viscosity Increase (%) 200 strategy. The IIIG does not break 150 this oil due to its reduced ability to oxidize the oil. 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Test Time (hrs) 250 IIIH 438-1 Viscosity Increase (%) 200 438 is shifted borderline severe in 150 the IIIH and breaks in 36% of precision matrix tests. Relative to 100 the IIIG these would be false 50 negatives. 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Test Time (hrs)
Theoretical Limit Possibilities Borderline in IIIG Passing IIIG Failing IIIH Passing IIIH Borderline IIIH ? ? Setting the limit anywhere between 50 to 100% preserves the intended separation of oils. LnPVIS, RMSE 436 438-1 434-2 Overall IIIH 0.3138 0.9558 0.3943 0.4764 IIIG n/a 0.2106* 0.4402** 0.2919 * 438 **434
Task Force Recommendation On October 23, 2015 the IIIH Task Force voted on the following motion: The Task Force as a technical group has vetted the precision matrix data reported to date, and determined the tests included are operationally valid. Based on the matrix data the test is capable of measuring PVis and WPD. We recommend to the Surveillance Panel that the matrix data be used to consider the test to be used as an ASTM standardized test. The motion passed with 9 approves and 3 waives. Slide 21
PCEOP Recommendation On December 8, 2015 the PCEOP voted on the following motion: Chrysler Oxidation and Deposit precision matrix results show repeatability, reproducibility, and discrimination on PVIS and WPD. The test is suitable for measuring PVIS and WPD of engine oils, and is ready to be fully developed as an ASTM method by the Sequence III Surveillance Panel. The motion passed with broad consensus. Slide 22
Motion The Chrysler Oxidation and Deposit test is accepted into GF-6 for evaluating the performance of engine oils for pVis; WPD; MRV; and Phosphorus Retention. The surveillance panel will now monitor and control the test and work on further precision improvements and aligning lab D results with the other precision matrix laboratories. 23 12/10/2015
Thank you! 24
Back up slides 25
Chrysler OD Test Precision Matrix Data - PVIS Influencing observation is pointed out by Stat Group in the Seq IIIH Precision Matrix Stat analysis report 12/10/2015 26
12/10/2015 27
Chrysler OD Test Precision Matrix Data - WPD 12/10/2015 28
12/10/2015 29
Comparison of 438 in IIIG/H 340 IIIG 438 290 240 190 140 90 40 -10 0 20 40 60 80 100 • The IIIH is more severe on oxidative thickening with less volatility. • Bimodal response is due less to the magnitude of the more severe results than to lower mild results than.
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