Atty. Elias Jose M. Inciong President United Broiler Raisers - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

November 20, 2018 Atty. Elias Jose M. Inciong President United Broiler Raisers Association

OUTLINE I. Quick Broiler Facts II. Industry Performance 2016 to 2017 Markets and Prices Input Costs Drivers of Growth III. Issues and Trends Inputs, Sourcing, and Costs Markets (Current and New) Logistics and Costs Competition/Competitiveness Others (Socio-economic condition) IV. Outlook

Performance 1980s: At age 56 days: Average LiveWeight - 1.4-1.6 kgs Feed Conversion Ratio – 2.1-2.3 Harvest Recovery - 90-92% 1990s: At age 45 days: ALW – 1.55-1.65 FCR – 2.00 HR-94- 95%

2000 - 2004: At age 42 days: ALW - 1.7-1.75 kgs FCR – 1.9-2.0 HR - 94-95% 2005 - up: At age 33-34 days: ALW – 1.80-2.0 FCR – 1.65- 1.75 HR-94-96%

2000 - 2004: At age 42 days: ALW - 1.7-1.75 kgs FCR – 1.9-2.0 HR - 94-95% 2005 - up: At age 33-34 days: ALW – 1.80-2.0 FCR – 1.65- 1.75 HR-94-96%

Broiler Facts Performance improved because of the ff.: 1. Genetic improvement using information technology to enhance selection 2. Better nutrition 3. Better management

Broiler Facts Difference between Broiler and Layer Operations: 1. Broiler Parent Stocks produce the Day- old-chick (DOC)that becomes your fried chicken, adobo, tinola etc. 2. Laying hens require no males to produce table eggs. 3. There is NO overlap between the two operations.

Types of Operations: 1. Integrated/National – full value chain Breeder/Feedmill/Broiler/Processing/Market Broiler – Internal and/or Contract Growing 2. Independent (“commercial”)/Regional – may be integrated or only in certain segments of the value chain

II. Industry Performance

Broiler Data 2017 1. In 2017, volume of chicken production grew by 4.26% while value increased by 4.54%. (PSA data) 2. Farmgate prices declined by 0.96% from PhP82.25 to PhP81.46. Wholesale prices also declined from PhP116.33 to PhP115.73. 3. Retail prices, however, were higher by 2.94% (High – PhP150.80 Low – PhP126.47)

Source: BAI Task Force Price and Volume Watch

Source: BAI Task Force Price and Volume Watch

CHICKEN MEAT IMPORTATION CY 2018 Sum of Weight(KG) Month Meat Description Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Chicken Chicken Cuts 399,812 457,568 717,917 579,611 1,508,353 2,089,044 1,922,726 1,056,104 1,490,896 Chicken Leg Quarter 4,152,125 2,661,587 4,448,879 5,535,627 6,695,516 6,239,583 5,948,764 5,377,596 4,190,590 Deboned 14,825,911 11,123,322 14,666,743 16,877,284 21,285,236 18,673,276 16,121,123 13,781,735 15,339,053 Fats 26,400 211,200 212,400 79,200 260,821 184,400 131,600 158,000 Rind/Skin 104,000 264,200 202,000 132,000 107,210 47,164 24,820 211,223 109,810 Offals 26,004 103,034 27,300 51,014 128,046 25,680 41,928 Chicken Total 19,481,848 14,559,081 20,246,739 23,439,955 29,702,815 27,360,902 24,329,880 20,583,938 21,330,277

Comparative Farmgate Prices of Chicken Year 2 2014- 2018 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COMPARATIVE FARMGATE PRICES OF CHICKEN JAN 77.18 78.53 81.98 74.73 79.28 Year 2014-2018 FEB 85.35 80.45 90.58 91.43 88.52 100.00 MAR 82.27 61.71 84.77 89.35 86.59 90.00 2014 APR 84.18 61.24 76.48 90.96 76.24 80.00 MAY 86.42 79.42 94.31 92.43 93.62 70.00 2015 JUN 60.00 93.64 84.32 92.16 81.62 92.23 2016 50.00 JUL 96.15 88.49 90.87 84.19 95.46 40.00 AUG 97.88 84.85 76.91 60.57 99.71 2017 30.00 SEPT 81.26 81.72 67.60 56.27 77.10 20.00 2018 OCT 85.50 79.98 71.53 93.25 79.24 10.00 JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUN JUL AUGSEPTOCT NOV DEC NOV 83.91 77.67 70.78 88.57 DEC 81.19 82.26 79.20 92.11 SOURCE : DeltaMan ave. 86.24 78.39 81.43 82.96 86.80

Weekly Farm Gate Prices of Broiler Year 2014- 2018 MONTH 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5-Jan 70.56 82.18 86.24 67.10 69.89 12-Jan 69.57 81.39 80.88 64.71 66.00 19-Jan 81.37 77.07 81.60 68.50 86.83 26-Jan 82.00 73.47 79.18 85.22 94.39 2-Feb 82.40 72.38 86.88 88.12 95.75 9-Feb 90.22 77.00 91.13 95.00 95.44 16-Feb 92.79 82.93 93.63 94.00 86.15 23-Feb 84.87 85.00 89.07 92.17 81.54 2-Mar 73.50 76.87 88.47 84.55 85.06 9-Mar 80.53 66.50 88.44 80.67 88.28 16-Mar 82.20 58.78 86.89 89.21 89.21 23-Mar 82.71 59.84 86.95 89.69 83.81 2-Apr 83.65 52.94 76.81 93.59 76.94 6-Apr 83.83 52.35 69.63 93.59 68.54 13-Apr 87.72 50.44 61.60 93.31 73.67 20-Apr 85.39 65.43 75.13 92.62 85.81 27-Apr 82.61 76.74 84.11 89.06 90.58 4-May 81.47 78.74 91.93 88.83 95.59 11-May 86.67 80.67 96.50 91.00 95.69 18-May 86.14 80.47 95.25 91.13 93.50 25-May 87.88 79.10 93.71 93.89 89.71 1-Jun 92.07 79.82 91.40 85.67 92.22 8-Jun 94.47 83.14 90.62 78.63 98.47 18-Jun 94.00 86.87 91.63 81.38 88.41 22-Jun 93.64 87.43 95.00 79.32 89.82 27-Jun 90.97

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 06-Jul 94.27 90.76 96.22 83.75 94.13 13-Jul 96.27 91.13 92.38 84.45 90.93 20-Jul 95.50 89.47 87.15 84.38 97.82 27-Jul 98.54 82.60 87.73 76.73 99.12 03-Aug 98.92 84.20 80.53 67.79 101.94 10-Aug 98.50 82.29 78.35 72.68 103.07 17-Aug 96.66 84.07 75.07 44.66 94.12 24-Aug 96.56 88.84 73.69 39.07 71.36 31-Aug 82.79 87.61 69.94 58.07 88.22 07-Sep 74.80 78.94 66.56 57.15 82.33 14-Sep 81.27 83.19 70.00 56.93 79.16 21-Sep 86.16 77.13 65.79 70.13 69.81 28-Sep 90.29 74.83 65.71 91.13 85.67 05-Oct 90.57 82.56 68.65 92.23 82.24 12-Oct 88.21 83.13 77.00 92.64 79.00 19-Oct 72.92 79.40 68.93 97.00 78.22 26-Oct 81.38 77.52 59.92 98.61 77.50 02-Nov 83.94 78.67 73.07 84.21 70.07 09-Nov 83.92 78.13 70.60 78.81 16-Nov 75.28 76.21 68.67 89.63 23-Nov 83.91 76.00 68.07 91.88 30-Nov 85.31 78.78 69.44 98.90 07-Dec 81.56 83.79 81.94 91.88 14-Dec 76.71 84.21 84.13 98.90 21-Dec 79.54 85.2 81.29 99.50 28-Dec 80.12 82.12 72.15 81.67 Cost of production for broiler ranges from P82-84/kl

1) Yellow Corn 2) Soya 3) Rice bran, Fish meal, Wheat, Copra meal, Coco oil, amino acids 4) Pharmaceuticals, biologicals, organics 5) Day-old-chicks (DOCs)

Comparative Prices of Yellow Corn Year 2014- 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COMPARATIVE PRICES OF YELLOW CORN Jan 12.95 15.75 14.10 14.30 14.27 YEAR 2014- 2018 Feb 13.73 14.69 14.40 13.83 15.08 24 Mar 13.52 14.40 14.35 13.54 16.06 22 2014 20 Apr 13.61 14.20 15.28 13.43 15.95 18 May 14.90 14.13 14.91 13.39 16.22 2015 16 Jun 15.20 13.12 14.86 13.28 17.82 14 12 2016 Jul 15.80 13.60 14.56 13.07 18.19 10 Aug 16.35 14.30 14.23 13.10 19.95 8 2017 6 Sep 16.00 13.80 14.50 12.91 22.17 4 Oct 15.73 13.70 14.00 13.18 19.09 2 2018 0 Nov 15.67 13.40 15.30 13.00 Jan FebMar AprMayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Dec 16.03 13.43 14.75 13.67 Source:Deltaman AVE. 14.96 14.04 14.60 13.39 17.48

Comparative Prices of U.S. Soya Year 2014- 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COMPARATIVE PRICES OF US SOYA Jan 29.58 24.00 23.63 22.70 23.65 Year 2014-2018 Feb 29.45 24.00 23.25 22.81 24.76 Mar 29.10 23.96 23.00 22.90 26.65 33.00 2014 Apr 29.20 21.91 21.40 22.83 27.14 30.00 May 29.97 20.75 23.50 22.74 27.12 27.00 2015 Jun 30.50 21.08 23.70 21.36 27.44 24.00 2016 21.00 Jul 29.32 24.75 24.70 21.73 27.08 18.00 Aug 28.00 25.20 23.33 22.90 26.88 2017 15.00 Sep 27.75 25.26 22.60 22.57 26.19 12.00 2018 Oct 27.75 24.25 23.00 22.77 24.61 9.00 Nov 27.83 23.93 22.90 22.91 Dec 27.95 24.00 23.00 23.09 SOURCE: DeltaMan AVE. 28.87 23.59 23.17 22.61 26.15

Comparative Prices of D.O.C. Year 2014 -2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COMPARATIVE PRICES JAN 16.45 23.86 23.35 23.16 35.87 OF DOC FEB 22.56 24.88 23.63 24.89 36.70 Year 2014 - 2018 MAR 25.60 25.19 25.23 27.75 37.20 45.00 APR 25.75 15.86 26.75 30.10 35.60 40.00 2014 MAY 25.75 20.00 28.09 32.20 28.46 35.00 30.00 JUN 2015 24.50 21.80 28.66 32.29 28.73 25.00 JUL 25.33 25.14 29.38 29.39 30.90 2016 20.00 AUG 25.32 24.61 29.71 23.73 31.25 15.00 2017 SEPT 29.55 25.77 26.39 15.59 33.49 10.00 5.00 OCT 33.60 27.46 25.93 26.74 32.40 2018 - NOV 36.10 30.39 26.77 37.61 JANFEBMAR APR MAY JUNJUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC DEC 30.60 25.08 25.42 38.25 SOURCE : Deltaman ave. 26.76 24.17 26.61 28.48 33.06

Population/ GDP growth – per capita consumption of chicken Professional support Food Safety Act Convenience Exports Competition

III. Issues and Trends

Climate Change Short-term: Impact of El Nino/La Niña Increase demand for commodities from China, India, and other developing countries Mitigation: Local production of corn, coco oil, molasses

1) Domestic – Greater segmentation Public/Wet Markets, HRIs, Convenience (Cooked e.g. lechon manok) market Impact of RA 10611 The Food Safety Act: Better choices for the consumers. Culling of poor performers. 2)Exports – competition based on offering greater value and not on lower price because of subsidized competitors or export of excess.

1) Power and Fuel – lower fuel costs 2) Transportation concerns – feed raw materials from the port, new charges 3) Local Government impositions – passing through fees, BFP requirements, and security of tenure of agricultural activities