Attractive vocational education and training: What really matters? Cathy Stasz, Sue Guthrie and Craig Holmes Cedefop Workshop 9 th October 2012 1/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Outline of the workshop • Session 1: Introduction to the study • Session 2: Trends and developments affecting IVET attractiveness • Session 3: Can the attractiveness of initial vocational education and training be measured? • Session 4: Policy initiatives — emerging trends and examples • Session 5: Moving the attractiveness agenda forward: next steps 2/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Cathy Stasz 1. INTRODUCTION AND APPROACH 3/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Aims of the Study • To improve the evidence base for policy decisions and actions at national and EU level to increase attractiveness of initial education and training (IVET) in Europe. 4/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Study Questions • Scope: How can IVET attractiveness be defined, conceptualised and measured? • Drivers of IVET attractiveness: What are they? – To what extent are these drivers specific to the IVET system (endogenous), external to the IVET system, (exogenous)? Can they be influenced by policy (policy levers)? • Perspectives of attractiveness: what are they among relevant stakeholders in different countries? • Policy efforts and effectiveness: what are intended outcomes, intervention logic, effects and perceptions? • What works and in what context? What are the characteristics of successful policies? 5/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Conceptual Framework Endogenous drivers of IVET Policy levers: IVET system outcomes Exogenous drivers: IVET • IVET providers and programmes delivery Improve flexibility and diversity of outcomes pathways and programmes • IVET System characteristics: Provide financial incentives • Demographic trends • Flexibility of pathways • • Improve quality of teachers or trainers Economic conditions • Access to higher education • • Improve quality processes Labour market conditions • Access for particular groups • • Wider education system Increase transparency through use of • Quality of provision qualifications frameworks • Availability of work-based learning • Improve transition to HE • Transparency of qualifications • Revise/modernise curriculum • Recognition of informal learning • Improve infrastructure • Availability of guidance and counselling • Improve collaboration across levels • Increase involvement of social partners IVET outcomes Exogenous demand drivers of IVET System characteristics: • Drop-out rate attractiveness: • Employment rate of graduates • Structural unemployment of graduates • Labour market trends (inc. demand for • Educational achievement specific qualifications) • HE enrolment of VET graduates • Expected professional income • Status of occupations Policy levers: Communication • Demographics • Economic progress: (un)employment • • Communication of IVET outcomes Migration of skilled labour Campaigns to promote policy changes and their implications • Campaigns to raise awareness • Who communicates? (Family, schools, internet and social • What is communicated? networks) • How is it communicated? • Improve guidance counselling Exogenous supply drivers of • Highlighting excellence in IVET skills provided by IVET (competitions, attractiveness: awards, etc.) • Social factors, particularly views of family, teachers Attractiveness of IVET • Attractiveness of other education pathways • Participation rates • Norms of participation in different • Relative esteem of IVET compared pathway to general upper secondary • education Level of interest in subject (education at earlier levels, stereotypes) • Image of vocational education • 6/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
A Mix of Methodologies 7/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Key data sources Data Sources Description Country studies 27 EU member states, plus Norway, Desk research plus key informant Iceland, Switzerland, Australia, and interviews South Korea Case studies 10 policy initiatives in 6 countries: Desk research plus key informant Germany, Finland, Ireland, Czech interviews Republic, Denmark, Spain Survey Web-based; directed at guidance Adaptation of Eurobarometer items counselors, teachers, employers; limited sample (N=126) Quantitative data European Labour Force Survey (2000- 2011; Eurobarometer (2011, 2004); Continual vocational training survey (2005); National statistics (UOE); European Social Survey (2010) 8/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Limitations of the study • Short overall timeframe to gather and analyse wide variety of data • Data limitations • Small survey sample limits generalisibility of findings • Policy initiatives are complex, ongoing, have interrelated strands — difficult to isolate effects of single initiative 9/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Data sources • National statistics agencies • European Labour Force Survey (2000-2010) • Continuing Vocational Training Survey (2005) • Eurobarometer: – Special 369 (2011) – Special 216 (2004) 10/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Craig Holmes 2. TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING IVET 11/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Key Questions • What are the potential drivers of IVET outcomes and IVET attractiveness? • What have the trends and developments looked like over recent years? • How do they differ between countries? • What does the picture look like across Europe? 12/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Data sources • National statistics agencies • European Labour Force Survey (2000-2011) • Continuing Vocational Training Survey (2005) • European Social Survey (2010) • Eurobarometer: – Special 369 (2011) – Special 216 (2004) 13/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Data sources (2) • Limitations of the data: – Some useful measures of attractiveness are not available e.g. wage premia and employment rates for IVET graduates – Other data is collected at higher level of aggregation and should be treated as indicators e.g. IVET enrolments – Some countries do not report for some measures e.g. graduation rates by ISCED level – Eurobarometer uses self-reported perceptions – Some data is going out-of-date e.g. migration up to 2008 • Where relevant, data broken down into pre-crisis (2000- 2007) and post-crisis (2007-2010) – May still mask effects of crisis if recoveries occur at different paces 14/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Exogenous drivers of IVET outcomes and attractiveness • Economic climate – Rising (youth) unemployment – Fiscal austerity in near future • Demographics – Population ageing – increased skill replacement demand – Migration – typically low skilled • Labour market: – Changing skills needs • Wider education system 15/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION • 2000-7: growth; 2007-10: recession Unemployment rate and change -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 0.0% Austria Netherlands Denmark Luxembourg Ireland Germany Norway Economic climate Cyprus 2010 Sweden Portugal UK Hungary 2007 Malta Slovenia Belgium Romania 2000 EU27 Czech Republic France Latvia Finland Spain Estonia Italy Greece Lithuania Bulgaria Poland Slovakia 16/75
DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION • European populations are ageing % change, 2000-10 10.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Germany South Korea Lichtenstein Greece Slovenia Italy Finland Malta Austria Demographics Latvia Portugal Netherlands Estonia EU27 Denmark Lithuania Country Hungary Romania Switzerland Czech Republic Size of 18-24 population Old age dependency ratio Cyprus Bulgaria Australia France Poland Sweden UK Belgium Slovakia Spain Iceland Ireland Luxembourg Norway 17/75
DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION • Countries labour forces face inflows and outflows % migration rate -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Luxembourg Cyprus Switzerland United Kingdom Malta Norway Liechtenstein Demographics (2) Denmark Iceland Spain Sweden Netherlands Belgium Austria Ireland Italy Greece Slovenia Germany France Finland Hungary Portugal Net immigration rate Emigration rate Immigration rate Czech Republic Slovakia Estonia Poland Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria 18/75
Demographics (3) • Immigration is relatively low-skilled 4.50 Relative skill of 15-24 year old immigrant population, 2008 4.00 NO 3.50 3.00 2.50 UK 2.00 PL IE 1.50 SK CZ HU 1.00 CY SI AT FR FI BE LU CH 0.50 SE DE NL EL ES PT DK IT 0.00 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Immigration rate, 15-24 year olds, 2008 19/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
Skills needs in the labour market • Moves away from semi-skilled manual, skilled trades and clerical work 5.0% Change in employment share, % 4.0% 2000-2007 3.0% 2007-2011 2000-2011 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Technicians and Clerical support Service and sales Craft and related Plant and associate workers workers trades workers machine professionals operators, and Occupation major group assemblers 20/75 DRAFT - NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION
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